Fantasy Football Thoughts: Breaking down big questions from Week 15 games

If you have made it this far, congratulations – you are ever so close to facing the final boss. For those of you that haven’t, sorry.

From the great scene in Happy Gilmore, “better luck next year.”

If you have made it this far, you likely had a couple of bumps along the way, but you adjusted, you soldiered on and you conquered, but the biggest task awaits – setting your lineup.

Here is a look at every matchup for Week 15 and answers to some of your lineup questions.

Los Angeles Chargers at Las Vegas Raiders

It’s been a rough stretch for Justin Herbert over the last two weeks as evidenced by him being QB27, but things may be looking up this week. The Raiders come into the game giving up the ninth most points per game to opposing quarterbacks and have allowed back-to-back QB13 weeks to Sam Darnold and Philip Rivers. All roads are pointing to a bounce back for the 2020 first-round pick and a top-10 finish this week.

Since returning from injury in Week 12, Austin Ekeler is RB14 in standard scoring and RB4 in PPR scoring, and gets a good matchup against the Raiders who have hemorrhaged points to the position with top-10 performances by Ito Smith, Ty Johnson and Jonathan Taylor. I’m less sold on Hunter Henry this week as the Raiders are middle of the table against opposing tight ends because he hasn’t been the beacon of consistency. We see a huge discrepancy in his scoring in standard (TE11) and PPR (TE6), so unless you are in a PPR league, stay away!

On the Raiders side of things, Derek Carr has been great the last four weeks, coming in as QB7. It certainly helps that the defence is giving up a ton of points, meaning that Carr has to put up points of his own to keep the Raiders afloat. Nelson Agholor has 35 targets over his last four games, at least four catches in each of those games, at least 54 yards in three of those four games and touchdowns in two of the four games.

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Buffalo Bills at Denver Broncos

Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs have been studs all season and that will likely continue against the Broncos, who just gave up a QB7 week to Teddy Bridgewater and WR18 finish to Robby Anderson. Lock starts.

Another player in a good spot as a WR3 play is Cole Beasley. He’s seen double digit targets in three of their last four and has become a safety net for Allen in this offence. Denver just allowed Curtis Samuel to have seven catches for 68 yards on nine targets in their last outing.

All Denver players are in for a rough weekend with Buffalo’s defence in town. The Bills have 10 interceptions in their last seven games, which doesn’t bode well for Drew Lock who has seven interceptions in his last four games. Buffalo has allowed less than 100 total rushing yards in four of their last five games as the defence has turned a corner and looked dominant in recent weeks.

Carolina Panthers at Green Bay Packers

Bridgewater had a really good start this past week, but that probably won’t happen this week. Green Bay has allowed only five top-10 quarterback finishes this season and just held Matthew Stafford to under 250 yards and one touchdown.

They haven’t had the same success defending running backs.

They’ve allowed over 100 total yards in three of their last five games to James Robinson, David Montgomery and Jonathan Taylor. If Christian McCaffrey can’t go, plug Mike Davis into your lineup with confidence. The Panthers may be down early and often in this one, so we could see a lot of garbage time points from the pass-catchers. If D.J. Moore plays, all three wide receivers will deserve a flex play look, but if he can’t, both Robby Anderson and Curtis Samuel should be in the WR3 conversation.

One player that will fly a bit under the radar in this matchup could be Allen Lazard. Carolina just allowed K.J. Hamler to go for 86 yards and two touchdowns on two catches, and we’ve seen Lazard’s snap count increase since coming back from injury. Aaron Jones has logged at least 17 touches in all but one game this year and gets a Carolina defence that is allowing the ninth most points per game to opposing running backs.

San Francisco 49ers at Dallas Cowboys

Can we just skip this game entirely?

Alright, maybe there is some value here.

Deebo Samuel might be out for the season after suffering a hamstring injury, so that leaves a ton of targets for Brandon Aiyuk. In his last five games, he has averaged 7.2 receptions for 99 yards and 0.6 touchdowns on 11.2 targets.

The only other guy that deserves a discussion to get into your lineup is Raheem Mostert. He has a very good ceiling against the Cowboys who have given up the sixth most points per game to opposing running backs. If he can’t go because of an ankle injury, Jeff Wilson Jr. will likely pick up most of the slack.

For the Cowboys, Amari Cooper has been very good over the last three weeks with at least 43 yards and a touchdown in those contests. Ezekiel Elliott has been decent of late, but the lack of touchdowns is more than mildly concerning. I have him as a higher-end RB2 due to volume.

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Seattle Seahawks at Washington Football Team

Unfortunately for Russell Wilson, the Washington Football Team aren’t the New York Jets. They have allowed just one top-10 quarterback performance since Week 6 and have forced eight turnovers in their last four games. I don’t love this spot for Wilson, but you have to roll with him as the upside is just too high to have him sit.

Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf will start, but they’re in for a tough sledding against Washington who are allowing just the fourth fewest points per game to opposing wide receivers.

Terry McLaurin hasn’t had a good last couple of weeks, being held to only 38 yards combined, but his talent is so good that you can’t have him sit on your bench. Things should be a little bit easier this week with the Seahawks in town, allowing the fourth most points per game to opposing wide receivers.

One player who should be in every lineup if Antonio Gibson can’t go is J.D. McKissic. He has 78 total yards in back-to-back games and is a threat in the passing game. This past week, he had a season-high 11 carries and played 65 per cent of the snaps compared to Peyton Barber’s 48 per cent.

Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings

Imagine saying that Mitch Trubisky would be a good start in a fantasy playoff matchup.

2020 is crazy, but maybe not that crazy.

While Trubisky is QB9 over the last three weeks, he’s going up against Minnesota who hasn’t allowed a top-10 quarterback week since Week 8 against Aaron Rodgers. I don’t see Trubisky keeping up his current pace.

One player that might not be in your lineup but should warrant some consideration is Cole Kmet. He has seen seven targets in each of his last two games and turned in 41 yards last game. He also saw a season-high 85 per cent of the snaps for the Bears.

Kirk Cousins already put up 292 yards and two touchdowns against the Bears earlier this year and that was on the road. With Dalvin Cook running the ball efficiently, and Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen having success at wideout, you can trot Cousins out there with some degree of confidence.

If Kyle Rudolph is out again, it’s a great spot for Irv Smith Jr. to shine. The Bears are giving up the third most points per game to opposing tight ends, they don’t cover athletic tight ends very well and have allowed five touchdowns in their last six games to tight ends.

New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins

On paper, this matchup looks like it’s going to be a mess from a fantasy perspective. In reality, it will probably be a mess.

Cam Newton is basically a non-starter at this point because his floor is too low to trust him. There will be other options out there for you if you’re desperate (Derek Carr and Philip Rivers come to mind).

If Damien Harris can overcome an injury sustained against the Rams last Thursday, he will be a mid-range flex play against Miami who is 20th in points per game to opposing running backs. Harris’s yards per carry has been impressive so far this year and if New England is going to have any success, it will be on the ground.

In speaking of the deficiencies on the Patriots’ offence, you know who would be a great start this week? The Miami Dolphins defence. They forced four turnovers against the Chiefs this past week, have 25 on the season – which is tied for the most in the NFL – and have at least one forced turnover in 19 straight games.

Their offence on the other hand, is in shambles. Mike Gesicki, Jakeem Grant and DeVante Parker all left Sunday’s game with injuries. Lynn Bowden Jr. stepped up and had a seven-catch, 82-yard game in their absence and will be a popular waiver pickup this week. If Grant and Parker can’t go, he should see plenty of targets and will have a decent enough floor that he could be a flex play.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Baltimore Ravens

This is a peach matchup for Lamar Jackson and the Ravens across the board. We saw the show that Jackson put on against the Cleveland Browns and his miraculous return after his “cramping” subsided. We’ve all been there with the “cramping.”

The Jags are top-six in points per game to every position – even Freddy Krueger would be scared of this nightmare that is the Jacksonville defence.

Mark Andrews has become a touchdown dependent start this season, but going up against Jacksonville’s porous defence who have allowed 10 receiving touchdowns to opposing tight ends this year, I like his chances to get into the end zone and make a fantasy impact.

Both Gus Edwards and J.K. Dobbins have been good fantasy starts over the last three weeks as they are both in the RB2 conversation in standard scoring that stretch, so you can lock them into a flex spot at worst against in this plus-matchup.

The expectation for this game is that Gardner Minshew will have to throw a lot in order to keep his team in the game, but I’m not going to be starting him anywhere – as much as I would love to say that I won a playoff game with Minshew as my quarterback.

D.J. Chark might be the best receiver of the group, but hasn’t surpassed 56 yards and has no touchdowns in his last four games. Laviska Shenault Jr. looks like he’s going to be a very good receiver in this league, but we’re not relying on him to help win us a semi-final matchup. Keelan Cole’s success has been quite sporadic.

Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson (8) scrambles during the first half of an NFL football game against the Cleveland Browns, Monday, Dec. 14, 2020, in Cleveland. (Ron Schwane/AP)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons

Since Week 11, Atlanta’s defence is fourth in points per game, ranking just behind the Washington Football Team, L.A. Rams and Miami Dolphins.

You’re stunned, I know.

I’m not saying that they are a lock start, but it does mean something for the Tampa Bay fantasy assets. Since Week 9, Tom Brady is averaging 18.24 points per game which ranks him 16th in that category. I’m sitting Brady this week.

The Tampa backfield belongs to Ronald Jones, but after having surgery on his pinkie, his status is unknown for this matchup. If he can’t go, stay away from Leonard Fournette. Atlanta has allowed only two rushing touchdowns to running backs in the last six games.

Tampa’s group of pass-catchers is one of the most frustrating things in fantasy football. In the last five weeks, Mike Evans is WR18 in standard and WR22 in PPR, Chris Godwin is WR48 in standard and WR38 in PPR and Antonio Brown is WR82 in standard and WR61 in PPR.

What we can say is that you can slot Evans into your lineup, Godwin is a good flex play in PPR formats and stay away from Brown.

In that same five-week stretch, Rob Gronkowski is TE12 in standard and TE15 in PPR, which should mean that he is planted on your bench. There are other options that will be on the waiver wire for you to stream.

Matt Ryan is averaging 13.74 points per game in his last five games and despite facing a shaky Tampa secondary. I don’t want to have him in a lineup, especially if Julio Jones sits out another week.

Calvin Ridley is a lock-start with 90-plus yards in three of his last four games and a touchdown in two of those four games. If Jones is out again, Russell Gage should warrant some flex consideration in PPR leagues coming off a five-catch, 82-yard game against the Chargers this past week.

We’ve also learned over the course of the season that you can’t really start running backs against Tampa Bay unless it’s Dalvin Cook. Todd Gurley becomes a very risky flex play in this one.

Detroit Lions at Tennessee Titans

This matchup has all the potential to be a bit of a shootout with both teams not known for any sort of lockdown defence and known for being able to put up points.

But will Matthew Stafford play?

The Lions quarterback is dealing with a rib injury and it didn’t sound very optimistic that he would play this weekend. If he can’t go, Chase Daniel would get the start in his place. Even if Stafford can go and is playing through this injury, do you really trust him? I don’t.

Injury risk or backup quarterback starting taken into consideration, I don’t see any of the pass-catchers other than Marvin Jones being able to provide any sort of production. If Kenny Golladay somehow miraculously makes his way back into the lineup, then Jones takes a hit, but we haven’t been given any indication that Golladay will be back.

D’Andre Swift is worthy of a start against the Titans because of both his running and pass-catching ability. I’ve got Swift in the mid-level RB2 mix this week and he should deliver quite nicely, regardless of who is starting at quarterback.

Ryan Tannehill is in a great spot against Detroit who have allowed 30.5 points per game over their last six, so putting up points shouldn’t be an issue here. Tannehill has two or more touchdowns in 10 of 13 games this season and is locked in as a top-10 quarterback.

Derrick Henry is coming off yet another 200-plus yard rushing performance and continues to be the rock in your fantasy lineup. A.J. Brown and Corey Davis are solid starts as both have put up better than respectable numbers this season and they get Detroit’s secondary who has allowed the fifth most points per game to opposing wide receivers.

Jonnu Smith hasn’t shown enough consistency to be starting in such a critical week. He hasn’t topped 40 yards receiving since Week 5 and has eclipsed the four-target mark just twice in that stretch.

Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts

These two faced off against each other two weeks ago with the Colts taking it by a 26-20 count, and we saw Deshaun Watson finish as QB14 with no passing touchdowns but he did run one in. The upside for Watson is too much to have him sitting on your bench unless you have a lot of stability in other parts of your lineup.

Brandin Cooks is expected back after missing last week’s game against Chicago, meaning that Keke Coutee’s value will take a hit. Cooks should draw plenty of targets and will have WR3 value with back end WR2 upside.

Do we even really need to talk about the Houston running backs? Ok, let’s move on.

Over the last five weeks, Philip Rivers checks in as the QB9 and has put up some pretty good weeks. This is a Houston team that just gave up 36 points to the Bears’ offence, so we will see much of the same from Indianapolis who just torched the Raiders.

Jonathan Taylor is finally getting the workload that everyone hoped he would and is RB6 in standard and RB7 in PPR in the last three weeks. In his last three games, Taylor is averaging 21.3 touches for 138 total yards and 0.7 touchdowns per game. Those are RB1 numbers, my friends.

T.Y. Hilton has absolutely blown up in the last three games. He has at least four catches, 81 yards and a touchdown in each of those games and is the WR3 across the board. He has averaged 5.5 receptions for 96.9 yards and 0.6 touchdowns on 8.8 targets in 17 career games against the Texans.

Philadelphia Eagles at Arizona Cardinals

Jalen Hurts is starting again for the Eagles, to no one’s surprise.

It wasn’t that Hurts was this uber efficient passer or that he made throws that not many other quarterbacks can make, but it was the fact that he gave the team a different element for teams to account for. He had over 100 rushing yards in his first career start and gave the Saints defence fits all afternoon.

But what did he do for everyone else?

Philadelphia ran 80 per cent of their rushing plays out of the shotgun with Hurts at quarterback this past week compared to 65 per cent the rest of the season. According to Sharp Football Stats, Sanders averages 6.5 yards per carry and has a 58 per cent successful play rate from the shotgun, compared to 5.7 yards per carry and a 48 per cent successful play rate from under centre.

Philadelphia Eagles’ Jalen Hurts passes during the first half against the New Orleans Saints, Sunday, Dec. 13, 2020, in Philadelphia. (Chris Szagola/AP)

Pass-catchers will take a hit in Philadelphia because of the uncertainty with Hurts’ arm, but I still like Dallas Goedert going forward. He’s the only guy with any sort of consistency as evidenced by his last four games where he has at least four catches and 43 yards in those contests. I’m fading every other pass-catcher in a critical week.

Kyler Murray ran the ball 13 times (the most since Week 7) and threw for 244 yards and a touchdown against a pretty good Giants defence. The Eagles are near the middle of the pack in points per game to opposing quarterbacks, so this won’t be a walk in the park for Murray through the air but his rushing upside has him as a back end QB1 this week.

DeAndre Hopkins is in your lineup, but what about Christian Kirk? He hasn’t broken the 50-yard threshold since Week 9 and has less than 50 yards in four of his last five games.

Kenyan Drake caught the ire of many fantasy managers during this season, but maybe that was unwarranted. Sure, he hasn’t had those boom weeks like he did last year after arriving in Arizona, but he’s been consistent all season, resulting in being the RB10 in standard and RB15 in PPR.

New York Jets at Los Angeles Rams

The Jets aren’t good so it is safe to say that you’re not going to start anyone on your roster.

That was easier than I thought.

On the other side with the Rams, it’s sunshine and rainbows.

Jared Goff comes in as a top-10 quarterback with the Jets being a complete tire fire against opposing signal callers. They’ve given up the second most points per game to the position, making Goff an easy start.

Cam Akers, like some of his fellow rookie running backs, finally got the heavy workload that we were all hoping for and he made the most of it against the Patriots. He had 29 carries for 171 yards and added two catches for 23 yards. Another Ram that you can lock into your lineup.

Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp have played to about expectations this season and what a matchup for both of them against New York. The Jets are seventh in points per game to opposing wide receivers to this point.

Kansas City Chiefs at New Orleans Saints

Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill are locked into your lineup without question. Clyde Edwards-Helaire will also be in your lineup but there are inconsistencies here. He’s eclipsed the 60-yard mark just once in his last six games but his involvement in the passing game keeps him afloat. He’s a risky RB2 this week going up against the Saints defence who have given up the fewest points per game to running backs.

Taysom Hill has had to throw the ball an average of 37.5 times over the last two games and plays a Chiefs defence that is middle of the pack in points per game to opposing quarterbacks. There’s no way you can sit Hill in this matchup. He’s QB6 since Drew Brees went down with injury and his floor is one of the highest among starting quarterbacks across the league. You can trust he won’t be the reason you lose and might be the reason you win.

Alvin Kamara, despite some ups and downs, will still make it into your roster. Even with the perceived struggles, he is still RB11 in the time that Hill has been under centre, so there shouldn’t be much concern. At wide receiver, Michael Thomas is the only one that you can really roll out on a weekly basis, and after two straight games of at least 84 yards and eight or more catches, it looks like he’s back.

Cleveland Browns at New York Giants

Baker Mayfield put on a fine performance despite an interception against Baltimore, but now gets the Giants who rank 28th in points per game to opposing quarterbacks. He’s been good over the last little while, but I don’t have faith in him in this matchup.

I will however, put my faith in Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. New York has allowed the 10th most points per game to opposing running backs and with those kind of numbers, you love the chances of another great performance from this duo. I’ve got both guys as low end RB1 high end RB2s this week. Jarvis Landry is great, in theory, but I don’t like many receivers going up against James Bradberry.

The Giants are a mess on offence these days. The pass-catchers aren’t good enough to overcome bad quarterback play from Daniel Jones. Darius Slayton has had one good game in two months, Sterling Shepard has surpassed 60 yards once in his last five games and Golden Tate is a JAG (just a guy). Even though Cleveland is allowing the 11th most points per game to wide receivers, Slayton and Shepard are desperation plays in a boom-or-bust spot.

Wayne Gallman has been in the RB2 conversation over the last five weeks, but was buoyed by a bunch of touchdowns. He has back-end RB2 written all over him and if the Browns can jump out to a big lead early, it’ll knock him out of significant playing time.

With only three games over 60 yards this season, Evan Engram is a touchdown-dependent tight end again this week.

Cleveland Browns quarterback Baker Mayfield (David Richard/AP)

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals

Even though Pittsburgh’s offence hasn’t been all that spectacular over the last few weeks, it is in a good spot to produce against Cincinnati’s not-so-stellar defence, who just gave up a whack of points to the Cowboys last week.

It could be a get-right game for Ben Roethlisberger, who is QB20 over the last two weeks thanks in large part to playing Washington and Buffalo. In their previous meeting, Big Ben threw for four touchdowns en route to a 36-10 drubbing. I believe he bounces back as a back-end QB1 this week.

Since Week 6, Diontae Johnson and Juju Smith-Schuster rank ninth and 12th respectively in PPR scoring, while rookie Chase Claypool is 28th in that same time frame. In the previous matchup, all three finished as top-12 wide receivers and I expect them all to be WR2s or better once again this week.

James Conner has had one of the more up-and-down seasons among players that we thought could have big years, but he’s also in a spot to get right. The Bengals run defence isn’t good and the Steelers could put this game away early, leading to a positive game script for Conner. Starting him would mean you need stability in the rest of your lineup in case he can’t stay on the field.

There’s not really much to say about the Bengals at this point. You’re going to have a hard time getting value out of Gio Bernard in a tough matchup and the high probability of a negative game script. The only wide receivers that you should have any sort of faith in are Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd. Both wide receivers have some upside, but the bottom could fall out on the floor if Pittsburgh’s defence plays the way it can. I have both as flex plays with mid-range WR2 upside based on game script and touchdown upside (Boyd with his red zone usage and Higgins with his big play ability).

Have a lineup or a trade question? Tweet @MattSN590 and ask away!