After its first-ever virtual draft, delays in training camp and a total cancellation of its pre-season, the NFL is finally (and thankfully) back this week.
Every season is unpredictable in some way or another, but the continuance of the COVID-19 pandemic adds a new layer in 2020. Will any teams be hamstrung by an outbreak? Will we even make it through to Super Bowl LV?
We’ll see. For now, let’s just make some football-related predictions and celebrate the return of the sport.
Worst to Wild Card
The Cincinnati Bengals were the NFL’s biggest losers last season, finishing with a 2-14 record. Their reward was the No. 1 overall pick and Heisman-winning quarterback Joe Burrow. And hey, just like that, they’re in position to make the playoffs.
OK, it’s not that simple. Burrow will have his struggles as a rookie playing football’s more important position. But he’s working with a deep roster of receivers – A.J. Green, Tyler Boyd, John Ross III and Tee Higgins – as well as a proven bell-cow running back in Joe Mixon.
The defence was quite porous last year (29th in yards allowed), but they added a trio of starter-calibre players in free agency to help change things up.
In truth, the Bengals’ playoff hopes are buoyed by the NFL’s expanded playoff format for 2020, which will include a third wild-card spot, bumping each conference’s total playoff allotment to seven teams.
In the past decade, 15 NFL teams have rebounded from a last-place finish in their division to make the playoffs the following year, according to FiveThirtyEight. Pencil Cincinnati in as No. 16.
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Belichick over Brady
One of the season’s juiciest subplots is the battle of the exes, as Tom Brady starts anew with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and his former coach, Bill Belichick, remains at the helm of the New England Patriots.
The ageless Brady (actually, he’s 43) has a glut of weapons to throw to in Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, Rob Gronkowski and O.J. Howard — plus a stable of running backs led by Leonard Fournette and Ronald Jones II.
But the Buccaneers haven’t made the playoffs since 2007 and, at least last season, the offence wasn’t the issue. The 2019 team finished third in points and yards but couldn’t make the post-season. How can a Brady-led bunch improve on that?
Tampa’s 29th-ranked scoring defence did nothing in free agency to improve. As far as we’re concerned, the Buccaneers’ playoff drought won’t end this season.
Belichick, meanwhile, has moved on from Brady with former MVP Cam Newton taking over the quarterback room. Despite a league-high eight opt-outs due to the pandemic, the Patriots are in position to claim an astounding 12th-consecutive AFC East division title.
Murray for MVP
It’s not bold to surmise that a quarterback will win the league’s MVP award, given that 12 of the past 13 recipients were quarterbacks.
It might be bold, though, to suggest that the league MVP will go to someone whose only league-leading stat from 2019 was most sacks allowed. Enter Kyler Murray, the second-year slinger for the Arizona Cardinals.
Murray was fine as a rookie, completing 64.4 per cent of his passes for 3,722 yards, 20 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. But he really can be so much better.
For one, he should be able to convert more passes into touchdowns. His 3.7 per cent touchdown rate ranked 27th among 32 starting quarterbacks last season — well below the 4.5 per cent league average.
Also, the Cardinals gifted Murray this off-season by trading for three-time reigning All-Pro receiver DeAndre Hopkins, who is sure to make plays for Murray, as well as open up routes for other receivers.
Lastly, Murray separates himself from many MVP contenders by making magic happen with his legs. He rushed for 544 yards in 2019, second among quarterbacks to Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson (who, by the way, won MVP).
Playoff-free in Music City
The Tennessee Titans were one of the league’s greatest surprises last year, storming to the AFC Championship game after road playoff wins against the New England Patriots and Baltimore Ravens. They even took an early two-possession lead on the Kansas City Chiefs before losing to the eventual Super Bowl champs.
Ryan Tannehill had a career year at quarterback, Derrick Henry led the league in rushing and they added Jadeveon Clowney and Vic Beasley Jr. this off-season to bolster their pass rush. What’s not to like?
Well, there’s good reason to believe Tannehill’s performance was unsustainably good. His league-best yards per attempt (9.6) and quarterback rating (117.5) were both well above the averages during his seven-year career (7.2 yards/attempt, 89.8 rating).
Those defensive additions are interesting, but this group also lost top cornerback Logan Ryan in free agency. For a group that finished 21st in yards allowed, there’s more work to do.
Then there’s Henry, whose rushing prowess might be the worst omen of all. In seven of the past eight years, the team with the leading rusher missed the playoffs the following season.
Sorry, Titans fans. Hopefully you enjoyed last year’s playoff run while it lasted.
Bad news (for the) Bears
Let’s just say it’s not a great sign when you decline the fifth-year option on your quarterback’s rookie deal, then turn around and name him your Week 1 starter anyway.
Things are a bit messy in the Windy City, where the Mitchell Trubisky-led Chicago Bears are dragging a dreadful offence into a rather deep NFC North. Trubisky averaged 209 passing yards per game in 2019, with just 17 touchdown passes and 10 interceptions, as part of the 29th-ranked offence in both points and yards.
The defence was excellent (top-10 in points and yards allowed), but it’ll be consistently taxed this season by an offence that can’t stay on the field.
Chicago would need a mighty fall from last year’s 8-8 record to finish as the worst team in football in 2020, but that’s what we’re predicting. This is a time to be bold, right?
With Trubisky guiding a sinking ship and head coach Matt Nagy positioned on the hot seat, the Bears could implode in such a way that nets them the No. 1 overall pick.
At least then they’d have their choice for a quarterback of the future.
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