As the Detroit Lions prepare to usher in a new era, the decision on where Matthew Stafford will play next season will be one of the more intriguing storylines this upcoming off-season.
After 12 seasons in Detroit, Stafford has reportedly agreed with the team, including new general manager Brad Holmes and head coach Dan Campbell, that a trade is in the best interest of all parties.
An exact timeline of when a trade could come to fruition is unclear, although ESPN reported over the weekend Detroit will begin listening to offers this week and there will be some urgency to move Stafford as he is owed a $10-million roster bonus on the fifth day of the new league year in March.
When it comes to what teams may have to give up in a potential trade for Stafford, Adam Schefter reports the Lions expect to receive "at least a first-round pick."
Detroit will likely have some competition on the trade market considering quarterbacks like Deshaun Watson, Matt Ryan, Jimmy Garoppolo, Sam Darnold and Gardner Minshew could all be available. Fortunately for the Lions, many teams will likely view Stafford's contract as a bargain with the 32-year-old being owed only $43 million over the next two years.
With all that being said, here is a look at five potential trade destinations for the 2009 first-overall pick.
Indianapolis Colts
It's hard to not see the Colts as the frontrunners for Stafford considering the team is well-positioned to win now and quarterback is the one glaring position GM Chris Ballard needs to address after Philip Rivers' retirement last week.
Should Deshaun Watson be made available, there's no way Indianapolis would be in the running as the Texans would never move him to an AFC South rival, making Stafford all the more likely as a fit for the Colts.
Additionally, the Colts have not shied away from spending draft capital to improve their roster in past as they traded a first-round pick for DeForest Buckner just last off-season. According to Sports Illustrated's Albert Breer, the Colts discussed Garoppolo as part of the trade discussions for Buckner but ultimately settled on signing Rivers.
With the 21st pick this spring, it seems likely the Colts would use that in a potential trade for Stafford should Indy go that route but the Lions could look for more in such a deal.
If the Colts are serious about winning now, trading for Stafford seems like the best option since they have the cap space and draft picks to get a deal done.
Washington Football Team
If there is a team that could be an under-the-radar contender for Stafford, it's Washington.
The team's new general manager, Martin Mayhew, was GM of the Lions when they drafted Stafford in 2009 and was in that position up until 2015. Coming to Washington, Mayhew finds himself in a similar situation as when he took over as the Lions in GM in 2008: the team needs to find a solution at quarterback.
Despite a remarkable comeback in 2020, Alex Smith's future is up in the air and neither Kyle Allen or Taylor Heinicke seem capable of being the answer under centre.
Washington seems like the good spot for Stafford considering he would have a No. 1 target in Terry McLaurin, an up-and-coming running back in Antonio Gibson and a Football Team that surprised many in Ron Rivera's first year as head coach.
Washington's own the 19th-overall pick in the draft and can create more flexibility with their salary cap in order to acquire Stafford.
Denver Broncos
Since Peyton Manning led the Broncos to a Super Bowl win back in February 2016, Denver has struggled to find a suitable replacement – they have started nine different quarterbacks since the 2017 season.
When Drew Lock emerged in 2019, the Broncos thought they found their answer at quarterback, but the sophomore struggled this past season with a league-worst 57.3 completion percentage and 15 interceptions, tied for most in the NFL with Carson Wentz.
Newly hired general manager George Paton will have to decide whether Lock has the tools to be the starter going forward or if they have to go in another direction, again.
If the Broncos were to engage with the Lions in trade talks, Detroit is going to do whatever it can to pry away Denver's ninth-overall pick. That's a hefty price to pay and probably something the Broncos won't want to do, and instead would likely try to come up with a more creative package should they want to bring in Stafford.
Really what this will come down to is whether the Broncos believe in Lock or if it makes more sense to get a more established starter like Stafford.
New England Patriots
The first season without Tom Brady did not go so well for Bill Belichick, as Cam Newton wasn't the answer in the passing game and a host of other issues contributed to a rare losing season for the Patriots.
Looking at New England's situation, they own the 15th-overall pick – an attractive asset to Detroit – plus the team has the cap space to make Stafford's contract fit. The biggest question is whether Belichick believes Stafford can provide enough of an upgrade to risk a top-15 pick for a short-term solution.
An interesting wrinkle to all of this is that former Lions head coach Matt Patricia is reportedly back with the Patriots. Not only would the Patriots get some intel from Patricia but it would be interesting to see if Stafford has any interest in working with his former coach again.
Should the Patriots decide to trade for Stafford, you would expect Belichick and the front office would try to surround him with better weapons than what Newton had to work with in an offence that finished in the bottom six in 2020.
San Francisco 49ers
While Kyle Shanahan has thrown support behind Jimmy Garoppolo as the 49ers starter in 2021, that was before Stafford emerged as a trade possibility.
After reaching the Super Bowl last season, San Francisco took a step back largely due to injury, including to Garoppolo, but there have been questions about "Jimmy G" in San Fran since last off-season. As most of the 29-year-old's contract is already paid out, the 49ers can cut or trade Garoppolo and only take on $2.8 million in dead cap.
Stafford would likely be a more dependable option over Garoppolo in San Francisco and a good fit in Shanahan's system considering he has one of the strongest arms in the league.
Also, San Francisco would be better off trading for Stafford instead of a player like Watson because the price to acquire the current Lions quarterback would be significantly lower.
