We’re right in the thick of the Stanley Cup Playoffs, NBA Playoffs and MLB regular season, but the NFL is back in the spotlight this week thanks to the 2023 NFL Draft.
The first round takes place Thursday night and just like in so many years past, quarterbacks will be front and centre.
The 2022 draft had a dearth of first-round quarterback buzz. In fact, of the nine quarterbacks selected last year, Kenny Pickett going to the Steelers at No. 20 was the only first-rounder and he was one of only four QBs selected within the first 136 picks.
Instead, the top of that draft class was crowded by defensive players like top pick Travon Walker, second-overall Aidan Hutchinson and this past season’s top defensive rookie and All-Pro “Sauce” Gardner who went fourth to the Jets. The top of the board one year ago also had a slew of offensive linemen and wide receivers that made an impact on NFL fields as rookies.
This year it should be back to being QB-heavy in the opening round like it was in 2021 when five were chosen within the first 15 picks.
Not only are QBs expected to go early and often, but trades involving established QBs will impact how things shake out Thursday night.
Aaron Rodgers was traded to the Jets in the first big move of draft week and it’ll factor into what both his new team in New York and former team in Green Bay do. That deal involved picks No. 13 and No. 15, so a ripple effect is inevitable.
In addition to that, Lamar Jackson’s situation with the Ravens remains unresolved and the 49ers have reportedly been receiving trade calls regarding 2021’s third-overall pick Trey Lance. Could either of those QBs get moved or might their potential availability impact a team’s decision-making process at the draft?
We’ll have to wait to find out but with all that in mind, let’s look at some notable 2023 NFL Draft betting lines relevant to Day 1 of the draft.
The odds for which player will be selected No. 1 changed dramatically after Carolina acquired the pick in March in a blockbuster deal. The Panthers traded star receiver D.J. Moore, the No. 9 and No. 61 picks in 2023, a 2024 first and a 2025 second for the chance to take what they hope will be their next franchise QB. The Panthers have held the No. 1 pick once previously, in 2011 when they selected quarterback Cam Newton out of Auburn.
Alabama’s Bryce Young is the overwhelming favourite to go to Carolina whereas just a couple of months ago it was C.J. Stroud as the listed chalk to go first overall. Kentucky Wildcats pivot Will Levis has climbed draft boards dramatically and has the second-shortest odds after leapfrogging Stroud.
With the odds pointing to Carolina taking Young, the draft essentially begins at No. 2 when the Houston Texans are on the clock. It would be surprising if the Texans ended the first night of the draft without selecting a QB but they also hold the No. 12 pick, which certainly gives them options. Houston could pick at No. 2, taking an available QB or their top defensive player, or they could always trade down and take a different approach.
As Texans reporter Stephanie Stradley told Follow The Money earlier this week, it’s difficult to predict what Houston might do with that No. 2 pick.
Houston hired DeMeco Ryans, the former 49ers defensive coordinator, to be their new head coach. Would that mean they’d favour a blue-chip defensive piece at No. 2? Texas Tech edge defender Tyree Wilson holds the shortest odds to go second overall with Levis and Alabama standout Will Anderson not far behind.
If the Panthers pull a shocker and go with a player besides Young at No. 1 then you’ll find excellent value on him to be the second QB off the board. If Young is taken first, as expected, then the second QB off the board will either be Levis or Stroud according to oddsmakers. Florida Gators QB Anthony Richardson is expected to be taken in the opening round and Hendon Hooker out of Tennessee is also garnering attention.
Remember, though, just one year ago Malik Willis had some steam as the potential first QB off the board yet he ended up sliding to the third round and was the third QB selected behind Pickett and Desmond Ridder.
All that is to say the first round of the draft is usually volatile, especially when trades begin happening and QB-needy teams start feeling the pressure.
Over 4.5 QBs drafted in Round 1 is nearly a two-to-one favourite compared to the under, indicating oddsmakers believe at least five pivots hear their name called within the first 31 picks — remember, there are only 31 picks in the opening round this year because Miami forfeited theirs due to a tampering violation.
If you think Young's first-QB-off-the-board odds are chalky, just check out the running back market. Texas Longhorns star Bijan Robinson will be the first running back selected Thursday, unless absolute chaos ensues, with his odds a staggering -10000 at most sportsbooks. Jahmyr Gibbs out of Alabama is also pegged to go in the first round with his second RB selected odds a less intimidating albeit still chalky -1000.
Jalen Carter is perhaps the best defensive player in the draft, but that doesn’t mean he’ll be the first defender off the board. Will Anderson had been the consensus top defensive prospect yet Tyree Wilson is the odds-on favourite to be the first defensive player off the board.
Here are some other key positional odds to be mindful of during Round 1.
There’s obviously no shortage of prop bets for draft bettors to consider and if you can pick your spots and call your shots there’s value to be had, so happy shopping.
(Listed odds via Sports Interaction as of Wednesday night and subject to change)
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