With U.S. Thanksgiving in the rear view, things are beginning to get interesting in the NFL’s playoff picture.
Many of the division races are shaping up to be nail-biters, the wild-card races include as many as six teams in each conference, and the battle for the No. 1 seed in both the AFC and NFC is far from decided.
With as many as three teams able to clinch post-season berths this coming weekend, we’re revisiting what the playoff picture looks like, and breaking down where every team and division stands heading into the final five weeks of the season.
Before we get started, remember that the AFC and NFC will each have seven playoff teams this season. Additionally, in November the league approved an eighth playoff team for each conference should games need to be cancelled during the remainder of the season, so we’ve included which teams those would currently be in the standings below.
It’s also important to note that under 2020’s playoff format, only the top seed in each conference gets a first-round bye, making that spot even more coveted than before.
Playoff odds via Football Outsiders | NFL playoff standings via ESPN | Strength of schedule via Tankathon
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IF THE PLAYOFFS STARTED TODAY
AFC
1. Pittsburgh Steelers (11-0)
2. Kansas City Chiefs (10-1)
3. Tennessee Titans (8-3)
4. Buffalo Bills (8-3)
5. Cleveland Browns (8-3)
6. Miami Dolphins (7-4)
7. Indianapolis Colts (7-4)
Expanded Playoff Team: Las Vegas Raiders (6-5)
In the hunt…
Baltimore Ravens (6-5)
New England Patriots (5-6)
NFC
1. New Orleans Saints (9-2)
2. Seattle Seahawks (8-3)
3. Green Bay Packers (8-3)
4. New York Giants (4-7)
5. Los Angeles Rams (7-4)
6. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-5)
7. Arizona Cardinals (6-5)
Expanded Playoff Team: Minnesota Vikings
In the hunt…
Chicago Bears
San Francisco 49ers
Still breathing…
The other three NFC East teams
WEEK 13 CLINCHING SCENARIOS
AFC
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (vs. Denver)
Kansas City clinches AFC West division title with:
1. KC win + LV loss or tie OR
2. KC tie + LV loss
Kansas City clinches playoff berth with:
1. KC win OR
2. KC tie + BAL loss or tie + IND loss OR
3. KC tie + LV tie + BAL loss or tie + IND tie OR
4. KC tie + LV tie + MIA loss + IND loss or tie OR
5. KC tie + LV tie + MIA loss + BAL loss or tie OR
6. KC tie + MIA loss + BAL loss or tie + IND tie OR
7. LV loss + BAL loss + IND loss
PITTSBURGH STEELERS (vs. Washington)
Pittsburgh clinches AFC North division title with:
1. PIT win + CLE loss + PIT clinches strength of victory tiebreaker over CLE
Pittsburgh clinches playoff berth with:
1. PIT win or tie OR
2. LV loss or tie OR
3. MIA loss or tie OR
4. IND loss or tie
NFC
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (at Atlanta)
New Orleans clinches playoff berth with:
1. NO win + CHI loss or tie OR
2. NO tie + CHI loss + MIN loss + SF loss or tie OR
3. NO tie + CHI loss + MIN loss + ARI loss or tie
DIVISION-BY-DIVISION BREAKDOWN
AFC EAST
A shocking hiccup by the Dolphins a couple of weeks ago in Denver means the Bills still control their own fate in the race for the AFC East title, but don’t be surprised if the title comes down to the final day of the regular season when Buffalo hosts Miami at Orchard Park. Either way, both teams look to be in good shape for a playoff berth if they play consistently down the stretch.
Also of note is the perpetual division-title-holding Patriots, who are surprisingly still a long shot for an AFC playoff appearance despite winning three of their last four games and feeling like they’ve got some serious momentum. Given Bill Belichick’s pedigree, we’re not willing to count them out just yet.
1) Buffalo Bills
8-3 | Playoff Odds: 94.1% | Division Odds: 82.4% | Wild Card Odds: 11.7%
2) Miami Dolphins
7-4 | Playoff Odds: 63.9% | Division Odds: 16.7% | Wild Card Odds: 47.2%
3) New England Patriots
5-6 | Playoff Odds: 6.6% | Division Odds: 0.9% | Wild Card Odds: 5.7%
4) New York Jets
0-11 | Playoff Odds: 0.0% | Division Odds: 0.0% | Wild Card Odds: 0.0%
AFC WEST
A head-scratching no-show from Las Vegas in Atlanta this past weekend has all but assured Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs will be division champions for the fifth straight year – they could even clinch this weekend.
Andy Reid’s focus is likely now shifting to that coveted No. 1 seed, which K.C. has a 30.6-per cent shot at, according to Football Outsiders.
And that dud the Raiders laid didn’t just obliterate Jon Gruden’s slim division hopes — it also dropped his team’s playoff chances by nearly 24 per cent, per Football Outsiders, and has everyone wondering again if the Raiders have what it takes.
1) Kansas City Chiefs
10-1 | Playoff Odds: 100.0% | Division Odds: 99.8% | Wild Card Odds: 0.2%
2) Las Vegas Raiders
6-5 | Playoff Odds: 42.1% | Division Odds: 0.2% | Wild Card Odds: 41.9%
3) Denver Broncos
4-7 | Playoff Odds: 0.2% | Division Odds: 0.0% | Wild Card Odds: 0.2%
4) Los Angeles Chargers
3-8 | Playoff Odds: 0.0% | Division Odds: 0.0% | Wild Card Odds: 0.0%
AFC NORTH
Wednesday’s slim win over the short-handed Ravens means the Steelers can clinch the division title as soon as this Monday against the Football Team. The biggest question facing the Steelers now is whether they can hold off the Chiefs and clinch that No. 1 seed in the conference.
The Ravens, on the other hand, are now clinging to dear post-season life after dropping three of their last four games. A Tuesday-night clash with the lowly Cowboys should cure what ails Baltimore, even if they have to play without Lamar Jackson again.
Meanwhile, the eight-win Browns have a good shot at following up the clinching of their first season of .500 or better since 2007 with their first playoff berth since 2002 – although a remaining strength of schedule of .527 means it’s far from assured.
1) Pittsburgh Steelers
10-0 | Playoff Odds: 100.0% | Division Odds: 99.8% | Wild Card Odds: 0.2%
2) Cleveland Browns
8-3 | Playoff Odds: 68.3% | Division Odds: 0.2% | Wild Card Odds: 68.0%
3) Baltimore Ravens
6-4 | Playoff Odds: 65.3% | Division Odds: 0.0% | Wild Card Odds: 65.3%
4) Cincinnati Bengals
2-8-1 | Playoff Odds: 0.0% | Division Odds: 0.0% | Wild Card Odds: 0.0%
AFC SOUTH
A lot has gone on down in the South over the last couple of weeks.
After a bizarre Thursday-night beatdown at the hands of the Colts, a comeback win over the Ravens and a revenge beatdown at Indianapolis have not only made the Titans a virtual playoff lock but given them a huge advantage over their division rivals for the AFC South crown. A relatively easy schedule down the stretch helps, too.
But that doesn’t mean we can count out Indianapolis. With two games against the Texans and one versus the Jaguars ahead for the Colts, we like their chances of getting into one of the AFC’s three wild-card spots in spite of last weekend’s lopsided loss.
1) Tennessee Titans
8-3 | Playoff Odds: 94.4% | Division Odds: 77.1% | Wild Card Odds: 17.3%
2) Indianapolis Colts
7-4 | Playoff Odds: 63.8% | Division Odds: 22.5% | Wild Card Odds: 41.3%
3) Houston Texans
4-7 | Playoff Odds: 1.2% | Division Odds: 0.4% | Wild Card Odds: 0.9%
4) Jacksonville Jaguars
1-10 | Playoff Odds: 0.0% | Division Odds: 0.0% | Wild Card Odds: 0.0%
NFC EAST
The smoke is clearing in the NFC East, but every team is still on fire.
Someone has to win the division title and, at this point, the Giants have the best chance. We’re not so sure that’s indicative of how this division is going to play out, though. The Giants might be without Daniel Jones for a couple of weeks due to a hamstring injury, and their remaining strength of remaining schedule (.564) is the seventh-hardest.
The thing is, Washington’s schedule isn’t much easier (average opponents’ win percentage of .562) so the NFC East, as it has been all year long, will be a war of attrition to the bitter end.
No matter which team emerges from the NFC East, though, we know one thing: They’ll be the playoffs’ worst by a mile.
1) New York Giants
4-7 | Playoff Odds: 40.5% | Division Odds: 40.4% | Wild Card Odds: 0.0%
2) Washington Football Team
4-7 | Playoff Odds: 30.1% | Division Odds: 30.1% | Wild Card Odds: 0.1%
3) Philadelphia Eagles
3-7-1 | Playoff Odds: 18.6% | Division Odds: 18.6% | Wild Card Odds: 0.0%
4) Dallas Cowboys
3-8 | Playoff Odds: 10.9% | Division Odds: 10.9% | Wild Card Odds: 0.0%
NFC WEST
From the worst division in football to arguably the best. Like the NFC East, every team in the NFC West is very much in the NFC playoff conversation – but for very different reasons.
While the Seahawks hold the advantage entering the final weeks of the season, the division title is still in play for the Rams with what will likely be a huge Week 16 matchup in Seattle looming on Dec. 27. Remember: L.A. won the last game between the two 23–16 on Nov. 15.
A tough run of three losses in their last four means the Cardinals have an uphill climb for the division title, but a post-season berth for the first time since 2015 isn’t out of the question if Kliff Kingsbury and Kyler Murray can get back on track.
And a hat-tip to the banged-up Niners, who have seen most of their best players sidelined for parts (if not all) of the season but continue to hang around in the NFC wild-card race thanks to great coaching.
1) Seattle Seahawks
8-3 | Playoff Odds: 99.2% | Division Odds: 63.8% | Wild Card Odds: 35.4%
2) Los Angeles Rams
7-4 | Playoff Odds: 95.8% | Division Odds: 30.2% | Wild Card Odds: 65.6%
3) Arizona Cardinals
6-4 | Playoff Odds: 57.1% | Division Odds: 5.4% | Wild Card Odds: 51.7%
4) San Francisco 49ers
5-6 | Playoff Odds: 18.4% | Division Odds: 0.6% | Wild Card Odds: 17.8%
NFC NORTH
Aaron Rodgers and the Packers are the clear kings in the north, and have their sights set on the NFC’s No. 1 seed – although Green Bay being the three-seed come January is most likely (44.1 per cent, per Football Outsiders).
While that was expected, the surprise of the NFC North continues to be the Vikings, who shocked us with a terrible start to the season and have amazed us with four wins in their last five to get right back in the thick of things.
However, an easier remaining schedule actually gives the Bears a better chance at the post-season than the Vikings despite worse current form.
1) Green Bay Packers
8-3 | Playoff Odds: 98.7% | Division Odds: 96.1% | Wild Card Odds: 2.6%
2) Minnesota Vikings
5-6 | Playoff Odds: 17.0% | Division Odds: 1.1% | Wild Card Odds: 15.9%
3) Chicago Bears
5-6 | Playoff Odds: 25.4% | Division Odds: 2.8% | Wild Card Odds: 22.7%
4) Detroit Lions
4-7 | Playoff Odds: 1.4% | Division Odds: 0.0% | Wild Card Odds: 1.3%
NFC SOUTH
Thanks to a pair of wins over Tom Brady and the Buccaneers, plus a perfect 4-0 division record, the Saints are essentially already NFC South champions and can clinch a playoff spot as early as this weekend.
The Bucs, despite wildly inconsistent results, would need a lot to go wrong over their final four games of the season to miss out on January football. Tampa Bay is the only team down the stretch that doesn’t play a team with a current record above .500.
1) New Orleans Saints
9-2 | Playoff Odds: 100.0% | Division Odds: 98.1% | Wild Card Odds: 1.8%
2) Tampa Bay Buccaneers
7-5 | Playoff Odds: 86.0% | Division Odds: 1.9% | Wild Card Odds: 84.1%
3) Atlanta Falcons
4-7 | Playoff Odds: 0.7% | Division Odds: 0.0% | Wild Card Odds: 0.7%
4) Carolina Panthers
4-8 | Playoff Odds: 0.3% | Division Odds: 0.0% | Wild Card Odds: 0.3%
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