There’s been a fair share of ups and downs, but the tumultuous 2020 NFL season has officially reached the midway point. The campaign is through its first nine weeks, which means every team has played at least eight of its 16 games.
And while everything’s still left to be decided and plenty will change between now and the end of the season, nine weeks has offered us a solid look at which teams will be in the mix in January and who will be watching from home.
As the NFL enters the most crucial time of its season, we’ve decided to break down what the playoff picture looks like, and where every team and division stands heading into the stretch run.
Before we get started, remember that the AFC and NFC will each have seven playoff teams this season. Additionally, the league recently approved an eighth playoff team for each conference should games need to be cancelled during the remainder of the season, so we’ve included which teams those would currently be in the standings below.
It’s also important to note that under 2020’s playoff format, only the top seed in each conference gets a first-round bye, making that spot even more coveted than before.
With all of that in mind, let’s dive into the NFL mid-season playoff picture.
Playoff odds info via Football Outsiders | NFL playoff standings and strength-of-schedule info via ESPN
IF THE PLAYOFFS STARTED TODAY
AFC
1. Pittsburgh Steelers (8-0)
2. Kansas City Chiefs (8-1)
3. Buffalo Bills (7-2)
4. Tennessee Titans (6-2)
5. Baltimore Ravens (6-2)
6. Las Vegas Raiders (5-3)
7. Miami Dolphins (5-3)
Expanded Playoff Team: Cleveland Browns (5-3)
In the hunt…
Indianapolis Colts (5-3)
NFC
1. New Orleans Saints (6-2)
2. Seattle Seahawks (6-2)
3. Green Bay Packers (6-2)
4. Philadelphia Eagles (3-4-1)
5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-3)
6. Arizona Cardinals (5-3)
7. Los Angeles Rams (5-3)
Expanded Playoff Team: Chicago Bears (5-4)
In the hunt…
San Francisco 49ers (4-5)
Minnesota Vikings (3-5)
Somehow still breathing…
The other three NFC East teams
DIVISION-BY-DIVISION BREAKDOWN
AFC EAST
Already 4-0 in the division, including a Week 2 win over Miami that could prove crucial, the Bills are the clear AFC East favourites at this point, while the Dolphins’ current three-game win streak has Brian Flores’s team in the thick of the wild-card race.
The 11-time defending division champion Patriots aren’t mathematically out of a playoff spot, but four losses in their last five games means it’s a steep climb to the post-season for Bill Belichick’s team.
1) Buffalo Bills
7-2 | Playoff Odds: 93.5% | Division Odds: 81.6% | Wild Card Odds: 11.9%
2) Miami Dolphins
5-3 | Playoff Odds: 56.2% | Division Odds: 17.4% | Wild Card Odds: 38.7%
3) New England Patriots
3-5 | Playoff Odds: 6.9% | Division Odds: 1.0% | Wild Card Odds: 5.8%
4) New York Jets
0-9 | Playoff Odds: 0.0% | Division Odds: 0.0% | Wild Card Odds: 0.0%
AFC WEST
Through nine weeks of the 2020 season, the 8-1 Chiefs have the best odds to capture their division, according to Football Outsiders. As Patrick Mahomes puts together another MVP-type campaign, K.C. faces the second-easiest schedule in the AFC down the stretch – their remaining opponents’ average win percentage is .413.
Also, with three wins in their last four and a 2-0 division record, Jon Gruden’s Raiders have a good shot at one of three AFC wild-card spots. That said, a .588 strength of schedule (AFC’s third-toughest) will test Vegas’s playoff aspirations.
1) Kansas City Chiefs
8-1 | Playoff Odds: 99.6% | Division Odds: 93.6% | Wild Card Odds: 6.1%
2) Las Vegas Raiders
5-3 | Playoff Odds: 50.6% | Division Odds: 6.3% | Wild Card Odds: 44.3%
3) Denver Broncos
3-5 | Playoff Odds: 3.2% | Division Odds: 0.1% | Wild Card Odds: 3.1%
4) Los Angeles Chargers
2-6 | Playoff Odds: 3.7% | Division Odds: 0.0% | Wild Card Odds: 3.7%
AFC NORTH
The AFC’s division with the best shot so far of getting three teams into the post-season is the North, where the Steelers and Ravens are essentially locks to play in January, at this point, and the 5-3 Browns have a decent chance at a playoff berth for the first time since 2002.
Pittsburgh’s win over Baltimore two weeks ago skews the division odds heavily in the Steelers’ favour, but plenty can change down the stretch – especially with those two foes scheduled to face off again on Nov. 26.
1) Pittsburgh Steelers
8-0 | Playoff Odds: 99.7% | Division Odds: 79.1% | Wild Card Odds: 20.5%
2) Baltimore Ravens
6-2 | Playoff Odds: 95.3% | Division Odds: 20.0% | Wild Card Odds: 75.3%
3) Cleveland Browns
5-3 | Playoff Odds: 40.0% | Division Odds: 0.8% | Wild Card Odds: 39.1%
4) Cincinnati Bengals
2-5-1 | Playoff Odds: 0.7% | Division Odds: 0.0% | Wild Card Odds: 0.7%
AFC SOUTH
This is closest division race in the NFL through nine weeks, and Thursday night’s clash between the Titans and Colts will dramatically alter the numbers you see below.
The Colts are currently on the outside looking in thanks to their Week 5 loss to the Browns. Given the strengths of both Indianapolis and Tennessee, however, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see both of these teams in the post-season.
1) Tennessee Titans
6-2 | Playoff Odds: 78.7% | Division Odds: 54.5% | Wild Card Odds: 24.3%
2) Indianapolis Colts
5-3 | Playoff Odds: 68.8% | Division Odds: 44.5% | Wild Card Odds: 24.3%
3) Houston Texans
2-6 | Playoff Odds: 3.3% | Division Odds: 1.0% | Wild Card Odds: 2.3%
4) Jacksonville Jaguars
1-7 | Playoff Odds: 0.0% | Division Odds: 0.0% | Wild Card Odds: 0.0%
NFC EAST
It’s the division title or bust for the NFC East, by far the NFL’s worst division. With all four teams under .500 halfway through the season, any shot at a wild-card spot has evaporated as the rest of the divisions in the conference offer multiple playoff contenders. The NFC East’s ineptitude also means every team is in play for the division crown despite their awful records thus far.
The Eagles hold the advantage, but given their inconsistencies through eight games – and Carson Wentz’s propensity to turn over the football – Philadelphia is far from a lock for the playoffs.
1) Philadelphia Eagles
3-4-1 | Playoff Odds: 64.4% | Division Odds: 64.4% | Wild Card Odds: 0.1%
2) Washington Football Team
2-6 | Playoff Odds: 13.9% | Division Odds: 13.8% | Wild Card Odds: 0.1%
3) Dallas Cowboys
2-7 | Playoff Odds: 8.6% | Division Odds: 8.5% | Wild Card Odds: 0.0%
4) New York Giants
2-7 | Playoff Odds: 13.3% | Division Odds: 13.3% | Wild Card Odds: 0.0%
NFC WEST
Arguably the NFL’s best division through the first half of the season, the NFC West is the only division in which each team still has better than a 10 per cent chance of making the playoffs after nine weeks.
The Seahawks, led by current MVP favourite Russell Wilson, have the best chance to take the division crown, but a historically bad pass defence is tough to overlook in such a strong division. Injuries will likely doom the 49ers, but both the Cardinals (who have already beaten the Seahawks) and the Rams (who host the Seahawks this weekend) are still very much in the mix to take the NFC West.
Regardless of how it all shakes out, don’t be surprised if three of the four teams below are playing post-season football.
1) Seattle Seahawks
6-2 | Playoff Odds: 91.5% | Division Odds: 53.9% | Wild Card Odds: 37.6%
2) Arizona Cardinals
5-3 | Playoff Odds: 64.3% | Division Odds: 21.2% | Wild Card Odds: 43.1%
3) Los Angeles Rams
5-3 | Playoff Odds: 75.4% | Division Odds: 23.7% | Wild Card Odds: 51.7%
4) San Francisco 49ers
4-5 | Playoff Odds: 11.4% | Division Odds: 1.2% | Wild Card Odds: 10.2%
NFC NORTH
Riding a resurgent Aaron Rodgers in Matt Lafleur’s second year as head coach, the Packers are the class of the NFC North – and they may end up being its only post-season team.
After an unexpectedly solid start that always felt flimsy, the Bears have fallen back down to earth with three straight losses. On the flip side, the Vikings are surging behind monster outing after monster outing from Dalvin Cook, but a 1-5 start to the season may be too much to overcome – especially with the league’s 25th-ranked scoring defence. This weekend’s clash between these two rivals could go a long way in determining their long-term fortunes.
The Lions have a very slim shot at an NFC wild-card spot, but are already 0-3 in the division and have a tough schedule the rest of the way (remaining opponents win percentage of .515).
1) Green Bay Packers
6-2 | Playoff Odds: 92.4% | Division Odds: 78.7% | Wild Card Odds: 13.8%
2) Chicago Bears
5-4 | Playoff Odds: 48.5% | Division Odds: 17.2% | Wild Card Odds: 31.4%
3) Minnesota Vikings
3-5 | Playoff Odds: 17.0% | Division Odds: 3.1% | Wild Card Odds: 14.0%
4) Detroit Lions
3-5 | Playoff Odds: 9.8% | Division Odds: 1.1% | Wild Card Odds: 9.8%
NFC SOUTH
The Saints took over the driver’s seat in the NFC South this past weekend, handing Tom Brady one of the biggest beatdowns of his Hall of Fame career to complete the season sweep of their toughest division rival. According to Football Outsiders, New Orleans has nearly an 80 per cent shot at winning the division and currently owns the best odds of clinching the NFC’s top seed (40 per cent).
With both Saints-Bucs games in the books, Tompa Bay will need New Orleans to falter in a big way down the stretch if they’re going to have any chance at their first division title since 2007. It’s not all bad for the Bucs, however, as a playoff spot is looking highly likely at this point.
1) New Orleans Saints
6-2 | Playoff Odds: 97.9% | Division Odds: 79.9% | Wild Card Odds: 18.0%
2) Tampa Bay Buccaneers
6-3 | Playoff Odds: 86.6% | Division Odds: 19.8% | Wild Card Odds: 66.8%
3) Atlanta Falcons
3-6 | Playoff Odds: 0.8% | Division Odds: 0.2% | Wild Card Odds: 0.6%
4) Carolina Panthers
3-6 | Playoff Odds: 4.0% | Division Odds: 0.1% | Wild Card Odds: 3.9%
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