Well, what do you know? An NFL season that seemed beyond doomed at several points finished as planned and on time, and now we’re officially off to the playoffs.
Though the spectre of COVID-19 still looms as a threat, we finally get to talk about something else: Who can win it all? And that’s just what our power rankings panel is up to this week, looking at Super Bowl title odds for every team still in the running. For this, we’ve leaned on Football Outsiders.
This week, the panel includes editors Geoff Lowe and Craig Battle, and staff writer Emily Sadler.
1. Kansas City Chiefs
2020 record: 14-2
Last week: 1
Odds to win the Super Bowl: 21.1%
If K.C. hadn’t sat Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill, Sammy Watkins and Clyde Edwards-Helaire in Week 17, this could very easily have been a 15-win season for the team. They cover ground like no other team in the league, have the benefit of knowing what it took to win it all just last year, and will get another week of rest as the only AFC team with a first-round bye. (CB)
2. Green Bay Packers
2020 record: 13-3
Last week: 2
Odds to win the Super Bowl: 24.3%
Aaron Rodgers has been on a tear ever since losing in the NFC Championship. As he’s proven week after week, there’s nothing the MVP frontrunner can’t do. Another Super Bowl, exactly a decade after winning his first, feels like the perfect way to cap off this remarkable season. (ES)
3. Buffalo Bills
2020 record: 13-3
Last week: 3
Odds to win the Super Bowl: 17.6%
It would be hard to argue the Bills aren’t the hottest team in football right now, especially after dropping a 50 burger on the Dolphins Sunday with their backups playing much of the second half.
The way Josh Allen and the Buffalo offence is flying right now, the Bills enter the post-season with the best shot at overthrowing the Chiefs in the AFC.
Buckle up, Bills Mafia. This could be a wild ride. (GL)
4. New Orleans Saints
2020 record: 12-4
Last week: 4
Odds to win the Super Bowl: 18.2%
A wire-to-wire close-out victory over the Panthers clinched the second seed for the Saints on Sunday. Now, not only do they get the 8-8 Bears in the first round, but they may have both Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas back in the fold as well. (CB)
Thanks to the NFL schedule-makers, the #Saints are optimistic they'll have RB Alvin Kamara for their playoff opener against the #Bears … and WR Michael Thomas should be back too. @nflnetwork pic.twitter.com/NUE2nIqgBj
— Tom Pelissero (@TomPelissero) January 4, 2021
5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2020 record: 11-5
Last week: 6
Odds to win the Super Bowl: 6.8%
The Bucs finished with four more wins than their first-round opponent — Washington — but will be the road team for their game. That said, it’s still unclear if Washington will allow fans in the stands after playing without them for their final two regular-season games. Plus, no offence to Alex Smith — who deserves a ton of credit for where his team is at — but Tom Brady has 23 more playoff wins to his name than Smith has playoff appearances. (CB)
6. Pittsburgh Steelers
2020 record: 12-4
Last week: 5
Odds to win the Super Bowl: 2.4%
After fumbling away an 11-0 start to the season, the Steelers just barely stayed atop the NFC North. While defence remains their ticket to the Super Bowl, their best weapon right now is rest. Letting Big Ben and a handful of other stars sit for Week 17’s grand finale against the Browns could ultimately be the key to regaining their dominance. (ES)
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7. Seattle Seahawks
2020 record: 12-4
Last week: 7
Odds to win the Super Bowl: 4.1%
Now that is how you close a season. The Seahawks finished 2020 on a four-game win streak, with Russell Wilson — uncharacteristically turnover prone in the middle of the campaign — throwing seven TDs to just two INTs. Now they get the Rams, who they beat at home just two weeks back. (CB)
8. Baltimore Ravens
2020 record: 11-5
Last week: 8
Odds to win the Super Bowl: 2.5%
A five-game win streak to close out the season makes the Ravens a particularly dangerous contender worthy of those early-season championship predictions. But first, they’ll have to get through their old foes in Tennessee — a game that will have Super Bowl–sized storylines in itself. (ES)
9. Tennessee Titans
2020 record: 11-5
Last week: 9
Odds to win the Super Bowl: 0.8%
If we learned anything from Tennessee’s surprise run to the AFC title game last season, it’s to never count out these Titans – especially with Derrick Henry running the way he is right now.
But the Titans have major problems on the defensive side of the ball, which were fully on display in Tennessee’s last-second Week 17 win over Deshaun Watson and the Texans. The Titans defence is a bottom-four unit according to Football Outsiders efficiency rankings, and allowed the third-most passing yards and fourth-most total yards in the regular season.
You can’t win a title with a defence playing at that level, and it’s reflected in the Titans’ Super Bowl odds. (GL)
10. Indianapolis Colts
2020 record: 11-5
Last week: 11
Odds to win the Super Bowl: 0.8%
The Colts are a solid yet inconsistent team that will have a tough road to the Super Bowl after just missing out on the AFC South title on Sunday.
As the seventh seed in the AFC, that road begins in Buffalo where Indianapolis comes up against the hottest team in the NFL. Should the Colts pull off the upset in Western New York, the defending champion Chiefs would be next.
Frank Reich’s team has shown throughout the season it can compete with the AFC’s best, but it has also had its fair share of blunders. If that lack of consistency continues in the post-season, it will be nearly impossible for the Colts to win the three away games needed to get to Super Bowl LV. (GL)
11. Cleveland Browns
2020 record: 11-5
Last week: 12
Odds to win the Super Bowl: 0.4%
Cleveland’s first trip to the playoffs since 2002 (!!!) kicks off in prime time with an AFC North rematch with the Steelers. If the Browns can keep their elite run game going and get the Baker Mayfield we’ve seen down the stretch (you might even say he was Maserati level), hopefully they can avoid the same fate they suffered 18 years ago … against the same divisional foe. (ES)
12. Los Angeles Rams
2020 record: 10-6
Last week: 13
Odds to win the Super Bowl: 0.3%
Say what you will about the Rams’ up-and-down season, but no one can say they backed into the playoffs. Two clutch wins over the division-rival Cardinals — including a huge defensive performance in Week 17 — sealed the team’s return to the post-season. (CB)
13. Chicago Bears
2020 record: 8-8
Last week: 14
Odds to win the Super Bowl: 0.2%
Between the rollercoaster ride in the standings and the quarterback carousel, the future of the Bears feels mighty uncertain. And in fact, the biggest story heading into the playoffs isn’t so much how they’ll fare against the Saints but what they’ll do once the off-season hits. (ES)
14. Washington Football Team
2020 record: 7-9
Last week: 17
Odds to win the Super Bowl: 0.4%
So you’re telling me there’s a chance.
The 2020 Washington Football Team is an incredible story, there’s no doubt, but it’s a story that likely ends this weekend against Tom Brady and the Buccaneers.
Yes, Washington has one of the league’s best defences, which will give the team a shot to win on any given Sunday, but the offence just doesn’t have what it takes to win a Super Bowl. Alex Smith and Co. were barely able to overcome an Eagles team that looked like it was trying to lose on Sunday night.
Let’s give credit to Smith, Ron Rivera and the rest of the Football Team for all they’ve overcome in 2020 while recognizing that the chances of any type of Washington playoff run are slim to none. (GL)
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