It’s the first day of autumn and almost Week 3 in the NFL, which means it’s definitely time to start talking playoffs.
| 2019 | 2020 | |
|---|---|---|
| January | 67.5 | 67.6 |
| February | 45.3 | 55.4 |
| March | 90.8 | 12.8 |
No, not really. But, thanks to Football Outsiders’s playoff odds, it can be done, and so therefore it can become the theme of this week’s NFL power rankings from our expert panel. Who’s looking post-season bound one eighth of the way into the season, who’s already falling behind, and how will Week 2’s raft of player injuries affect things moving forward?
This week, the panel includes editors Geoff Lowe and Craig Battle, and staff writers Mike Johnston and Emily Sadler.
1. Kansas City Chiefs
2020 record: 2-0
Last week: 1
Way-too-early playoff odds: 88.4%
Surprise, surprise: According to Football Outsiders, the Chiefs have the best playoff odds at the moment. But we’d be remiss if we didn’t note that Kansas City barely survived the second week of the season undefeated as a gutsy-as-hell Chargers team took them to overtime. This season will be no cakewalk for the defending Super Bowl champs. (CB)
2. Baltimore Ravens
2020 record: 2-0
Last week: 2
Way-too-early playoff odds: 87.7%
Just three weeks into the season, and we get a glimpse of playoff football when the Chiefs and Ravens go head-to-head Monday night. Only one will emerge still undefeated. (ES)
3. Seattle Seahawks
2020 record: 2-0
Last week: 4
Way-too-early playoff odds: 76.4%
Week 2 brought the Seahawks’ first signature win of the year, as a last-second goal-line stand versus Cam Newton and the Patriots let them escape with a 35–30 victory. It was extra important despite the early hour of the season as the NFC Best is currently 7-1 combined, with the only loss coming in an intra-divisional contest. (CB)
4. Green Bay Packers
2020 record: 2-0
Last week: 5
Way-too-early playoff odds: 67.4%
5. Buffalo Bills
2020 record: 2-0
Last week: 6
Way-too-early playoff odds: 68.5%
Not only have the Bills gained a pair of division wins over the first two weeks and watched their closest rival in the Patriots fall to defeat Sunday night, but Buffalo has gotten a much-improved Josh Allen under centre. No. 17 is playing QB better than Bills fans have seen in two decades. (GL)
6. Arizona Cardinals
2020 record: 2-0
Last week: 7
Way-too-early playoff odds: 61.7%
A dominant two-way performance versus Washington put the Cardinals up 20–0 at the half and in cruise control for the third and fourth quarters. Kyler Murray threw a pick for the second week in a row, but at least he’s on pace for 1,264 rushing yards and 24 touchdowns on the ground. Not altogether shabby. (CB)
7. New Orleans Saints
2020 record: 1-1
Last week: 3
Way-too-early playoff odds: 76.8%
Drew Brees not having his main crutch Michael Thomas to lean on hurt the Saints in Monday’s loss to the Raiders. It’s early and no team in the NFC South is 2-0 so there isn't a need to panic if you’re a Saints fan. (MJ)
8. Pittsburgh Steelers
2020 record: 2-0
Last week: 9
Way-too-early playoff odds: 77.2%
You can’t talk Steelers without talking defence, but it’s a pair of offensive rookies who made all the difference in Week 2’s win. Guard Kevin Dotson was flawless, while wide receiver Chase Claypool’s 84-yard touchdown catch was the longest score from scrimmage by a Canadian-born NFLer in league history. (ES)
9. Tennessee Titans
2020 record: 2-0
Last week: 13
Way-too-early playoff odds: 64.2%
Ryan Tannehill looked sharp throwing four TDs, including two to standout tight end Jonnu Smith. The Titans had a two-TD lead at halftime before taking their foot off the gas in the second half and relying on a late fourth quarter Stephen Gostkowski game-winning field goal for a second straight week. (MJ)
10. New England Patriots
2020 record: 1-1
Last week: 8
Way-too-early playoff odds: 51.3%
The Patriots fell a step behind the Bills in the division this weekend, but we’re confident – despite some clear weaknesses – that this New England team will be playing in January if Cam Newton keeps up his stellar play. No one saw this coming from Newton. (GL)
11. Los Angeles Rams
2020 record: 2-0
Last week: 10
Way-too-early playoff odds: 72.3%
The Rams made a splash this week by signing Robert Woods to a big extension, but this team is doing it by skill-player committee so far. In Week 1, it was Malcolm Brown going for two TDs. In Week 2, it was Tyler Higbee picking up the first three-TD day by a tight end since Marcedes Lewis did it for Jacksonville in September 2017. (CB)
12. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2020 record: 1-1
Last week: 12
Way-too-early playoff odds: 56.2%
The new-look Bucs are still putting things together. They were playing with the lead for basically the entire game against Carolina, which allowed them to work on certain areas. Chris Godwin wasn’t available but Tom Brady said he thinks the team made some improvements coming off a loss to the Saints. Leonard Fournette broke out with 103 rushing yards and a pair of TDs. (MJ)
13. San Francisco 49ers
2020 record: 1-1
Last week: 11
Way-too-early playoff odds: 35.1%
Nothing like a matchup against the Jets to wash the taste of 0-1 out of a team’s mouth. But after losing team MVP and 2019 defensive rookie of the year Nick Bosa to a season-ending ACL injury, no one on the 49ers will be celebrating. (CB)
14. Las Vegas Raiders
2020 record: 2-0
Last week: 16
Way-too-early playoff odds: 48.6%
They got some help from the Saints’ 10 penalties for 129 yards, but the Raiders got the win in their first game in Vegas and stay undefeated. Their prize? A four-week stretch against teams all in the top 12 of these power rankings — at New England, vs. Buffalo, at Kansas City, vs. Tampa Bay. (CB)
15. Los Angeles Chargers
2020 record: 1-1
Last week: 14
Way-too-early playoff odds: 42.5%
Sixth-overall pick Justin Herbert was supposed to sit most or all of this year behind Tyrod Taylor. But when Taylor went out with a chest injury before the Chargers’ Week 2 matchup against the Chiefs, Herbert was thrust into duty ... and killed it. He threw for 311 yards and a touchdown, and added another score on the ground, in taking KC to OT. Head coach Anthony Lynn seems to be sticking with Taylor as the starter moving forward, but the clock on this situation is ticking much more loudly today than it was last week. (CB)
16. Dallas Cowboys
2020 record: 1-1
Last week: 17
Way-too-early playoff odds: 61.9%
Not only did the Cowboys pull off one of the most miraculous comebacks we’ll ever see, but the Eagles are 0-2 for the first time since 2015, giving Dallas the upper-hand in the NFC East. But given the porous defensive play in Big D, we’d still bet this division comes down to a big game in December. (GL)
17. Chicago Bears
2020 record: 2-0
Last week: 21
Way-too-early playoff odds: 56.1%
Two weeks into the season, and we’ve got the least-believable 2-0 squad and a tale of two Trubiskies. Both games have seen the QB at his best and his worst, so… which Mitch will we see throughout the rest of the season? (ES)
18. Cleveland Browns
2020 record: 1-1
Last week: 25
Way-too-early playoff odds: 27.1%
After a disastrous Week 1 outing that felt like an extension of last year’s disappointing season, we finally saw a Browns team built for prime time thanks to some long-awaited chemistry between Baker Mayfield and Odell Beckham Jr. and what is quite possibly the best running back tandem in the league. (ES)
19. Indianapolis Colts
2020 record: 1-1
Last week: 23
Way-too-early playoff odds: 54.7%
Jonathan Taylor made his first NFL start and the Colts offence rode the rookie RB to their first win in 2020 after disappointing against the Jags last week. The 38:25 time of possession will continue being a strength of Indy this season. The defence came to play, too, with three interceptions, three sacks and a safety. (MJ)
20. Jacksonville Jaguars
2020 record: 1-1
Last week: 19
Way-too-early playoff odds: 30.0%
Gardner Minshew and the Jags aren’t going to go away quietly. After upsetting the Colts in Week 1 they nearly did it again in Week 2 against the Titans. Undrafted rookie running back James Robinson has been a pleasant surprise. (MJ)
21. Houston Texans
2020 record: 0-2
Last week: 18
Way-too-early playoff odds: 21.4%
They’ve had perhaps the most difficult schedule to open the season with back-to-back meetings against Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson, so take the 0-2 record with a grain of salt. It won’t get much easier facing the tough Steelers defence in Week 3, though. (MJ)
22. Atlanta Falcons
2020 record: 0-2
Last week: 22
Way-too-early playoff odds: 26.1%
The odds head coach Dan Quinn keeps his job for the duration of the season are also slim. The Falcons were up 20-0 in the second quarter. Atlanta put up 39 total points and didn’t turn the ball over once. With less than three minutes remaining in the fourth quarter were they up two scores and had a 99.9 per cent win probability yet the Cowboys walked away with the win. Unacceptable. At least they covered the spread. (MJ)
23. Minnesota Vikings
2020 record: 0-2
Last week: 15
Way-too-early playoff odds: 17.1%
The loss of linebacker Anthony Barr makes what was a dismal defeat in Week 2 even more disheartening. He joins defensive end Danielle Hunter and Pat Elflein on the team’s injured reserve, making this season an uphill battle already. (ES)
24. Washington Football Team
2020 record: 1-1
Last week: 20
Way-too-early playoff odds: 21.7%
One half of dominance from the Football Team’s defensive line has given Washington a much higher number than it deserves. If you watched any of Sunday’s loss to Arizona, you know this team isn’t making the post-season. (GL)
25. Philadelphia Eagles
2020 record: 0-2
Last week: 24
Way-too-early playoff odds: 23.7%
Turnovers and sub-par quarterback play sunk the Eagles again in a Week 2 loss to the Rams – a defeat that stung even more after their division rivals, the Cowboys, stormed back for an unlikely win to avoid the same 0-2 fate as Philadelphia. (GL)
26. Denver Broncos
2020 record: 0-2
Last week: 26
Way-too-early playoff odds: 8.5%
Just brutal. In Week 2, Denver lost starting QB Drew Lock for multiple weeks with a shoulder injury and top wideout Courtland Sutton for the rest of the season with a knee injury. Two or three key defensive pieces will also miss time after suffering injuries this weekend. To their undying credit, the Broncos hung with a good Steelers team on the road — losing by just five points after putting 18 in the second half — but their stock has dropped mightily. (CB)
27. Miami Dolphins
2020 record: 0-2
Last week: 31
Way-too-early playoff odds: 10.0%
Miami’s post-season outlook doesn’t look great after a pair of division losses to start the season, but the Dolphins have been able to hang around with both the Patriots and Bills. Like the second half of last season, Brian Flores’s team is going to be a tough out every week. (GL)
28. Detroit Lions
2020 record: 0-2
Last week: 27
Way-too-early playoff odds: 22.1%
A rough start to the season featuring two divisional losses could quickly turn into an 0-4 start with the Cardinals and Saints coming next on the schedule. (ES)
29. New York Giants
2020 record: 0-2
Last week: 28
Way-too-early playoff odds: 19.3%
It’s unlikely these percentages account for players losses, but if they did, the Giants’ chances at the playoffs would be significantly lower than 19.3 per cent when accounting for the loss of Saquon Barkley. The offensive load now lands at the feet of Daniel Jones. (GL)
30. Carolina Panthers
2020 record: 0-2
Last week: 29
Way-too-early playoff odds: 6.1%
Christian McCaffrey will miss extended time with an ankle injury, which makes Teddy Bridgewater’s job of trying to keep this team afloat in the coming weeks that much more difficult. (MJ)
31. Cincinnati Bengals
2020 record: 0-2
Last week: 30
Way-too-early playoff odds: 7.0%
Joe Burrow is the real deal, but this isn’t going to be a No. 1 pick-to-No. 1 team story. That Burrow is tallying strong numbers behind a mediocre offensive line speaks to his skill, and points to a club that’s not quite ready to contend — but one that sure is fun to watch try. (ES)
Average time to throw:
Joe Burrow - 2.40 seconds
Baker Mayfield - 3.38 pic.twitter.com/yPgJv8B0Kv— PFF (@PFF) September 18, 2020
32. New York Jets
2020 record: 0-2
Last week: 32
Way-too-early playoff odds: 12.7%
Injuries played a big factor in Sunday’s loss… for the other team. The 49ers lost their starting QB, starting running back and their best defensive player to injury and still handed this Jets squad a thorough beatdown. A 12.7 per cent shot at playoff football seems generous at this point. (GL)
