If you’re in the mood to dabble a little on a player prop or two for the first full slate of Sunday NFL games, hopefully, this piece will help you make some informed decisions. I’ve identified some matchups that can possibly help you to be successful in Week 1.
Editor’s note: All betting lines are courtesy of Sports Interaction, and current at the time of publication.
Green Bay Packers @ New Orleans Saints 4:25pm ET
Wager to watch: RB Alvin Kamara total receiving yards (Over 46.5 -120, Under 46.5 -120)
The Packers and Saints begin their 2021 season at TIAA Bank Field in Jacksonville in a game that was moved from New Orleans in wake of Hurricane Ida. The Saints will start Jameis Winston at quarterback but we want to take a closer look at Alvin Kamara’s receiving yards total for this game.
Kamara had 756 yards receiving on 83 receptions which both ranked first among running backs last season. Kamara averaged 7.1 yards per target on 107 targets with an average distance of 9.1 yards per reception in 2020. Kamara was on the field for 658 snaps and averaged 0.09 air yards per snap last season.
The Packers, meanwhile, gave up 793 receiving yards to running backs in 2020 which ranked 30th in the NFL. Green Bay surrendered 97 receptions and 6.66 yards per target to RB’s which was 29th and 31st respectively in the league last season. Green Bay also had no answer for Kamara in Week 3 in New Orleans last season. The Saints’ running back torched the Packers for 139 receiving yards on 13 catches with 2 touchdowns on 14 targets.
Pick: I think this total is too low especially with the potential of Jameis Winston using Kamara as a safety valve. Take the total of 46.5 OVER at -120.
Cleveland Browns @ Kansas City Chiefs 4:25pm ET
Wager to watch: TE Travis Kelce total receiving yards (Over 89.5 -120, Under 89.5 -120)
The Browns and Chiefs will meet again at Arrowhead Stadium just 237 days after Kansas City knocked off Cleveland 22-17 in the divisional round of the NFL playoffs this past January. Obviously, the Browns trying to exact some revenge on the Chiefs will be the main storyline of this game, but we want to focus on Travis Kelce’s total receiving yards prop.
Kelce continued his dominance from the tight end position by notching an eye-popping 1416 receiving yards on 105 receptions in 15 games in 2020 for the Chiefs. Kelce not only led all TE’s in receiving yards but ranked second only to Buffalo wide receiver Stefon Diggs for the NFL’s overall receiving title. Kelce is just a flat-out a matchup nightmare for opposing defences.
The tight end had six games of 100+ yards receiving last season and averaged 9.8 yards per target on 145 targets with just four drops. Kelce is also a favourite target of Kansas City quarterback Patrick Mahomes. Kelce received 23.5% of the target share on a Chiefs team last season that was deep at WR with the likes of Tyreek Hill, Sammy Watkins and Mecole Hardman.
The Browns, on the other hand, had a tough time defending the tight end position last season. Cleveland coughed up 1028 receiving yards to TE’s which ranked 28th in the NFL in 2020. The Browns also gave up 105 receptions (tied-29th) and 7.19 yards per target (16th) to tight ends last season. Cleveland also couldn’t slow down Kelce in that playoff game in January. Kelce had 8 catches for 109 yards on 10 targets with 40 yards after the catch.
Pick: Look, I get it, the Browns have been scheming all off-season to try to figure out a way to shut down Kansas City’s tight end in Week 1. But until Cleveland can prove that they can shut down the tight end position, I’m taking the total of 89.5 OVER here at -120.
Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots 4:25pm ET
Wager to watch: QB Tua Tagovailoa total passing yards (Over 234.5 -120, Under 234.5 -120)
The Patriots host the Dolphins in this AFC East showdown in what will be the first career start for New England rookie quarterback Mac Jones. We’re going to turn our attention to Jones’ former Crimson Tide teammate Tua Tagovailoa, who is entering his second NFL season after starting nine of his 10 games for Miami as a rookie in 2020.
Tua had an up-and-down rookie campaign with the Dolphins. The 23-year-old quarterback threw for 1814 yards with 11 touchdowns and five interceptions but completed just 64.1% of his passes which ranked 29th in the NFL for qualified starting QBs. Tua averaged 6.3 yards per passing attempt last season and didn’t complete a pass that traveled over 40 yards. Tagovailoa also averaged a mediocre 5.4 net yards per passing play which ranked 29th in league last season.
Bill Belichick’s defence did well to shut down quarterbacks in 2020. The Patriots allowed 3709 passing yards (231.8 per game) and 332 completions (20.75 per game) to quarterbacks last season with both categories ranking third-best in the NFL. New England held Tua to just 145 passing yards in Week 15 on 20-of-26 attempts with zero touchdowns and one INT. Tagovailoa also averaged just 5.6 yards per pass attempt in that Week 15 game from Miami.
Pick: When you give Bill Belichick (aka the hoodie) months to prepare for a quarterback that has yet to play a full season, I like that spot. I’m taking the total of 234.5 passing yards to go UNDER the total here at -120.
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