We’re officially into the second half of the 2022 regular season with every team at or above .500 — and even some below it — aiming to make a push for the post-season.
Underdogs against the spread (ATS) and unders have been the story of the season for gamblers thus far. Dogs are winning at close to a 58 per cent clip while 60 per cent of games have ended under the listed total.
It has been even more dramatic in the past week with dogs on a 7-4-2 run ATS and unders enjoying a 10-3 hot streak.
Half of the AFC North and East are off this week with the Ravens, Bengals, Patriots and Jets on bye, as a number of high-profile players are dealing with injuries. With that in mind, let’s look at the Week 10 board with betting lines, totals and tidbits, plus some picks.
SPREADS & TOTALS
Seattle Seahawks (+2.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5) | Over/Under: 44.5
Minnesota Vikings (+3.5) at Buffalo Bills (-3.5) | Over/Under: 42.5
Detroit Lions (+3.0) at Chicago Bears (-3.0) | Over/Under: 48.5
Jacksonville Jaguars (+9.5) at Kansas City Chiefs (-9.5) | Over/Under: 50.5
Cleveland Browns (+3.5) at Miami Dolphins (-3.5) | Over/Under: 49.5
Houston Texans (+5.5) at New York Giants (-5.5) | Over/Under: 41.5
New Orleans Saints (-1.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers (+1.5) | Over/Under: 40.5
Denver Broncos (+3) at Tennessee Titans (-3) | Over/Under: 38.5
Indianapolis Colts (+4.5) at Las Vegas Raiders (-4.5) | Over/Under: 40.5
Dallas Cowboys (-4.5) at Green Bay Packers (+4.5) | Over/Under: 43.0
Arizona Cardinals (+1.0) at Los Angeles Rams (-1.0) | Over/Under: 40.5
Los Angeles Chargers (+7.0) at San Francisco 49ers (-7.0) | Over/Under: 45.5
Washington Commanders (+10.5) at Philadelphia Eagles (-10.5) | Over/Under: 43.5
The Bucs and Seahawks play in Germany this week. Tom Brady has never played the Seahawks as a member of the Bucs. Brady is 2-2 in his career against Seattle with his most recent win the infamous 28-24 Super Bowl XLIX victory when he was with the Pats.
Josh Allen’s elbow is the top factor in Buffalo’s home game against the 7-1 Vikings. This line opened at Bills -9.5 but has dropped to -3.5 with the uncertainty revolving around Allen’s injury. Case Keenum will start against his former team if Allen can’t go.
The Bears and Lions are two of only seven teams above .500 on overs this season. Not entirely surprising with both teams fielding plenty of youth on defence.
The Chiefs (3-5) and Jaguars (3-6) are two of the bottom nine teams ATS this season. Jacksonville has lost five in a row to Kansas City dating back to 2009.
Cleveland and Miami has one of the highest totals this week. Both teams are near the top of the league in many offensive categories but near the bottom defensively.
Texans rookie Dameon Pierce leads all rookies in missed tackles and rushing yards after first contact. Giants defence coordinator Wink Martindale told reporters he thinks Pierce “might be the angriest runner in the league.” The Giants allow 137.3 rushing yards per game, but that’s more than 40 yards fewer than what the Texans allow on the ground weekly.
Andy Dalton, coming off yet another loss in a primetime game, is just 3-13 all-time when playing against the Steelers. The last time he started a game in Pittsburgh he was sacked eight times; Steelers linebacker T.J. Watt could make his return this week.
Will the Broncos stack the box against Derrick Henry and the Titans?
Jeff Saturday will make his NFL coaching debut for the Colts this week. One of his first decisions was handing the play-calling duties to assistant QB coach Parks Frazier. The Colts are an NFL-best 8-1 on unders.
Aaron Rodgers is 5-1 ATS when a home underdog and the Packers are spotting the Cowboys 4.5 points this week.
The Rams have lost only one of 12 games against the Cardinals since Sean McVay became head coach in L.A. Quarterback Matthew Stafford has been in concussion protocol.
The road team has covered the spread and the over has hit in four of the past five meetings between the Chargers and 49ers.
Philadelphia is the lone remaining team undefeated ATS at home this season (4-0) and has covered in eight of its past nine home games dating back to last season.
MIKEY J’S CARD…
(Each week throughout the regular season I’ll be sharing some picks for the Sunday/Monday slate and will track my record, so you can follow or fade responsibly all season long. 2022 overall record to date: 56-71-3)
Favourites ATS (14-17-1): N/A
Underdogs ATS (15-13-2): All dogs
Overs (5-16): N/A
Unders (11-12): All unders
Moneyline dogs (11-13): Seahawks, Vikings, Cardinals
Still can’t hit an over to save my life but let’s try to build off the momentum of a rare winning week (8-5-3 in Week 9) with an entirely different strategy.
Let’s try an experiment to see if Week 10 ends up like most others have this season with unders and underdog ruling the results.
The Falcons have already played this week — losing 25-15 to the Panthers Thursday — so The Weekly Ridley will return in Week 11.
(Listed odds above via Covers as of Friday and subject to change)
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