After numerous massive trades ahead of the NFL’s trade deadline, the Kansas City Chiefs, who stood pat, remain the Super Bowl favourite at +550. They’re also on bye this week.
Coming off a massive win against the Chiefs last week, we’ll see NFL MVP favourite, Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (+160 at the BetMGM sportsbook), on the road against the Miami Dolphins, who traded away one of their best pass rushers in Jaelan Phillips.
I’ll be intrigued to see how the players who have been traded factor into their teams' plans.
Here are my predictions for Week 10.
Indianapolis Colts vs. Atlanta Falcons
The Colts head into this game after acquiring former New York Jets cornerback Sauce Gardner, who will certainly bolster their defence.
On the offensive side of the ball, the Colts rank second in passing yards (257.8), eighth in rushing yards (125.6) and first in points (32.2) per game.
The Falcons do have the best pass defence in the league, allowing just 158.1 yards per game, but they’re beatable on the ground, allowing 124.4 rushing yards (10th most) per game.
With their upgraded defence and dominant offence, the Colts will get it done and cover.
PREDICTION: Colts -6 (-110)
Miami Dolphins vs. Buffalo Bills
The Dolphins traded away one of their best pass rushers in Phillips and now host a Bills team that’s red hot coming off a 28-21 win over the Chiefs last week.
With this spread just under double-digit points, I don’t trust Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa to keep pace with either the Bills’ running game or passing attack.
PREDICTION: Bills -9.5 (-110)
Carolina Panthers vs. New Orleans Saints
The Saints traded away their best deep threat in Rashid Shaheed, and now they’re on the road against a Panthers defence that’s allowed just 189.7 passing yards per game over its last three.
Also, remember that this is Tyler Shough’s second start, following an average of just 5.4 yards per attempt and two interceptions against the Los Angeles Rams last week.
PREDICTION: Panthers -5.5 (-110)
Houston Texans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
Despite the Texans having one of the best defences in the league, I question how this offence will function should Davis Mills be named starter with C.J. Stroud in concussion protocol.
I’ll take the Jaguars and the point.
PREDICTION: Jaguars +1 (-110)
Chicago Bears vs. New York Giants
The Giants defence is going to have a difficult time against this Bears offence. New York allows 150 rushing yards (second-most) and 232.1 passing yards (ninth-most) per game.
Now, the Giants must take on a running game that saw Kyle Monangai run for 176 yards last week and a passing attack led by Caleb Williams, who’s thrown seven touchdowns and zero interceptions against cover-1 and cover-3 this season, which happen to be the coverages the Giants play most often.
PREDICTION: Bears -3.5 (-110)
Minnesota Vikings vs. Baltimore Ravens
The Vikings have sent the blitz on 110 opposing QB dropbacks, which is the third-most in the league.
Against the blitz this season, Jackson has completed 78.7 per cent of his passes (9.9 yards per attempt) and has seven touchdowns and one interception.
The Ravens offence will continue getting back on track in this game.
PREDICTION: Ravens -4 (-110)
New York Jets vs. Cleveland Browns
The Jets traded away two cornerstone defenders in Gardner and defensive tackle Quinnen Williams.
On top of that, their offence has to play a Browns defence that’s allowing the ninth-fewest rushing yards (94.3) and fifth-fewest passing yards (182.6) per game.
The Jets are a disaster.
PREDICTION: Browns -2.5 (-110)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New England Patriots
This is a challenging game to pick as both teams are closely matched in most categories, including passing and rushing yards allowed, as well as their offensive capabilities.
I expect this total to go under the 48.5, and with that, I’ll take the points with the Patriots.
That said, this is a true coin flip.
PREDICTION: Patriots +2.5 (-110)
Seattle Seahawks vs. Arizona Cardinals
The Cardinals named Jacoby Brissett their starting QB, and while I think he’s a better fit for their offence, this is going to be a tall task.
The Seahawks average 255.1 passing yards (fourth-most) and 28.9 points (fifth-most) per game.
This season, the Seahawks mostly play cover-3, and against that, Brissett hasn’t turned the ball over, but he’s averaging just 6.8 yards per attempt.
PREDICTION: Seahawks -6.5 (-110)
San Francisco 49ers vs. Los Angeles Rams
The Rams are sixth in the NFL in pressures with 129. Against pressure this season, 49ers QB Mac Jones has completed 50.8 per cent of his passes (4.7 yards per attempt) for one touchdown, two interceptions and three turnover-worthy plays.
PREDICTION: Rams -4 (-110)
Washington Commanders vs. Detroit Lions
With Jayden Daniels out with a dislocated elbow, Marcus Mariota is back under centre.
The Commanders haven't won the time of possession in any of Mariota's three starts, and now they’re taking on a Lions team that allows fewer than 95 rushing yards per game and has allowed fewer than 190 passing yards per outing over its last three.
I’m just not sure the Commanders offence can do much against the Lions defence while trying to keep up with an offence that’s second in points per game (29.9).
PREDICTION: Lions -9.5 (-110)
Los Angeles Chargers vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers didn’t add anyone at the deadline, and they have the worst pass defence in the league, surrendering 278.3 per game.
Now, they’re on the road against Justin Herbert, a guy who’s second in passing yards (2,390) and touchdowns (18).
He’ll be too much for the Steelers to handle defensively.
PREDICTION: Chargers -3 (-110)
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Green Bay Packers
With tight end Tucker Kraft out for the season and WR Matthew Golden’s status for this game up in the air, the Packers offence may take a step back.
Now, they head into this game against the Eagles, who are coming off a bye and have added Phillips to their roster to bolster their pass rush.
I’ll take the points.
PREDICTION: Eagles +2.5 (-110)
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