With weather systems expected to impact some outdoor games this weekend, especially on the East coast of the U.S., Week 11 sets up as a potentially dramatic and unpredictable one.
The action began Thursday with the Titans improving to 7-3 with a 27-17 win over the 4-7 Packers, but what else can we expect?
Seattle and the three teams from Florida (Miami, Tampa Bay and Jacksonville) are on bye Week 11 so without further ado, here’s a look at the board with betting lines, totals, tidbits, and picks.
Editor's Note: Gambling problems aren't only about losing money. They occur on a continuum, and can affect a person's whole life. To learn more about developing a healthy relationship to gambling, and to find resources for support, click here.
SPREADS & TOTALS
Cleveland Browns (+7.5) at Buffalo Bills (-7.5) | Over/Under: 49.5
Los Angeles Rams (+3.0) at New Orleans Saints (-3.0) | Over/Under: 38.5
New York Jets (+3.5) at New England Patriots (-3.5) | Over/Under: 38.5
Chicago Bears (+3.0) at Atlanta Falcons (-3.0) | Over/Under: 49.5
Carolina Panthers (+13.0) at Baltimore Ravens (-13.0) | Over/Under: 41.5
Washington Commanders (-3.0) at Houston Texans (+3.0) | Over/Under: 40.5
Philadelphia Eagles (-7.5) at Indianapolis Colts (+7.5) | Over/Under: 45.5
Detroit Lions (+3.0) at New York Giants (-3.0) | Over/Under: 44.5
Las Vegas Raiders (+2.5) at Denver Broncos (-2.5) | Over/Under: 41.5
Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers (+3.5) | Over/Under: 40.5
Dallas Cowboys (-1.5) at Minnesota Vikings (+1.5) | Over/Under: 48.5
Kansas City Chiefs (-4.5) at Los Angeles Chargers (+4.5) | Over/Under:
San Francisco 49ers (-8.5) at Arizona Cardinals (+8.5) | Over/Under: 43.5
Bills vs. Browns has been moved to Detroit’s Ford Field thanks to a massive weather system expected to dump several feet of snow in Buffalo. The total had dropped to 42.5 while the game was still scheduled to take place in Buffalo, so hopefully you were able to capitalize on that mid-week fluctuation. This is Cleveland’s last game prior to Deshaun Watson’s return.
The Rams-Saints matchup is tied for the lowest total of the week at 38.5. New Orleans is riding a streak of three consecutive unders, while the past four Rams road contests have finished under.
The other total of 38.5 is in Jets-Patriots. New York has lost four in a row ATS when an underdog against New England. The Patriots have won 13 straight overall against the Jets dating back to 2015, including a 22-17 win three weeks ago.
Chicago and Atlanta are both ranked in the top four in team rushing yards per game. The Falcons are fourth with 160.4 rushing yards per game, while the Bears are the only team averaging more than 200 yards on the ground.
Baltimore are the biggest favourites this week, but are the only team 0-3 ATS when a home favourite.
Washington, coming off a victory over the Eagles, is 3-1 overall and 3-0-1 ATS since Taylor Heinicke took over as the team’s starting quarterback.
Philadelphia is 1-3 ATS as a road favourite this season. The Eagles are coming off their first loss of 2022, while the Colts are 1-0 under Jeff Saturday.
Detroit is riding a two-game winning streak but the team has not won three in a row since 2017.
Denver has the No. 1-ranked scoring offence (16.6 points allowed per game) yet the 32nd-ranked scoring offence (14.6 points allowed per game)
Bengals unders haven’t lost in nine consecutive matchups with fellow AFC teams, and the under is 3-0-1 the last four times these AFC North rivals have played in Pittsburgh.
Dallas is a favourite over Minnesota despite the Vikings boasting an 8-1 record and are the lone remaining team undefeated at home. More than 60 per cent of the public is siding with the Vikings.
The Chargers are 3-14 straight up against the Chiefs over the past nine years. Kansas City is 8-1 ATS in the past nine games between these teams that took place in California.
San Francisco is 3-0 ATS in divisional games this season, while Arizona is 1-3 ATS against NFC West opponents.
MIKEY J’S CARD…
(Each week throughout the regular season I’ll be sharing some picks for the Sunday/Monday slate and will track my record, so you can follow or fade responsibly all season long. 2022 overall record to date: 72-84-3)
Favourites ATS (14-17-1): Broncos -2.5, Commanders -3.0, Bengals -3.5, Chiefs -4.5, Eagles -7.5, 49ers -8.5
Underdogs ATS (23-18-2): Lions +3.0, Bears +3.0, Rams +3.0
Overs (5-16): DAL/MIN 48.5, SF/ARI 43.5, WAS/HOU 40.5
Unders (17-19): KC/LAC 51.5, CLE/BUF 49.5, CHI/ATL 49.5, CIN/PIT 40.5, LV/DEN 41.5
Moneyline dogs (13-14): Lions, Bears, Rams
Last week we decided to go with a 2022 trends strategy and bet all unders (6-7) and underdogs (8-5 ATS). We came out 2-1 on moneyline dogs as well, so 16-13 overall ended up being an OK week.
This week let’s go with all road favourites, plus the hapless Broncos over the hapless Raiders, even though road faves are hitting at a mere 42.1 per cent so far this year.
(Listed odds above via Covers as of Friday and subject to change)
4:57