We head into Week 11 on a positive note, going a solid 2-1 for +0.80 units last week. Hopefully we’re turning the corner as we head into the back nine of the NFL season. I’ve done all the work for you here in case you’d like to put a little sprinkle on a player prop or two.
Here are some players I’ve identified that could be profitable for you.
Record to date for the 2021 NFL season: 14-16 (-4.45 units)
Editor’s note: All betting lines are courtesy of Sports Interaction and are current as of the time of publication.
Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets 1:00 p.m. ET
Wager to watch: WR Jaylen Waddle total receiving yards (Over 61.5 -120, Under 61.5 -120)
The Dolphins look for their third straight victory while the Jets try to snap their two-game losing streak and start Joe Flacco at quarterback as these AFC East rivals meet at MetLife stadium today. We want to zero in on Jaylen Waddle and his total receiving yards prop against a porous New York defence.
Jaylen Waddle caught four passes for 61 yards on six targets against Baltimore last week. Waddle has 60 receptions for 557 yards and is averaging 6.6 yards per target this season. The rookie wide receiver’s advanced metrics have been good. He’s averaging 57.7 air yards per game and is garnering 22 per cent of the Miami’s team targets. The 22-year-old is playing an average of 83.53 per cent of the Dolphins’ snaps on offence so far in 2021.
The Jets, meanwhile, have been historically brutal lately on defence. New York is the first team to cough up at least 45 points three times in a four-game span since the Giants did it way back in 1966. The Jets have allowed 1,890 yards in their past four games which is the most in team history in a four-game span. “Gang Green” is also getting torched by opposing wide receivers lately. Over the past four weeks, the Jets given up 884 yards to WRs, which ranks dead last in the NFL in that time frame. New York has allowed 62 receptions and 10.91 yards per target to wide-outs over their past four weeks which is 31st in the league.
Pick: The Jets can’t stop anything lately and I’d expect much of the same today. Jaylen Waddle is Miami’s number-one wide receiver right now and should have a nice day against this terrible New York defence. Take Waddle’s total of 61.5 receiving yards to go OVER at -120.
Dallas Cowboys @ Kansas City Chiefs 4:25 p.m. ET
Wager(s) to watch: QB Dak Prescott total passing yards (Over 291.5 -120, Under 291.5 -120), Dak Prescott total pass completions (Over 24.5 -120, Under 24.5 -120)
The Cowboys visit Arrowhead stadium to face the Chiefs in this highly anticipated Week 11 matchup. This will be the first time that Dak Prescott will square off against Patrick Mahomes, but we want to discuss Prescott’s total passing and completions props here.
Dak Prescott is at the heart of the NFL’s No. 1 scoring offence that has averaged 31.6 points per game this season. The Cowboys are also tops when it comes to total offence by racking up 433.9 yards per game in 2021. The 28-year-old quarterback is fresh off completing 24 of 31 passes for 296 yards and two touchdowns in last Sunday's 43-3 destruction of the Falcons and was pulled late because of the lopsided score.
Prescott is averaging 8.2 yards per attempt this season and has 33 completions that have travelled over 20 yards. Dallas’ signal caller has had some big passing games this season. Prescott has three games that have exceeded 300-plus yards passing, and two that have gone over the 400-yard mark. He’s also been incredibly accurate this season. Prescott has completed 201 of his 286 passes this season for a 70.3 per cent completion percentage, which ranks second in the NFL. Let’s dip into a little bit of his advanced metrics, too. Prescott’s average target depth is 8.5 yards and the average for receiver yards after catch is 5.7 yards which are both well above league average.
The Kansas City defence is allowing 66 per cent of passes to be completed, and 266.8 passing yards per game in 2021. The Chiefs’ defence has been better of late but haven’t been able to slow down quarterbacks over their past eight games. KC has surrendered 2,117 passing yards to QBs, which is 27th in the NFL over that span. Kansas City has also allowed 184 completions to quarterbacks, which is also 27th in the league over the past eight weeks. The Chiefs’ have given up an average of 260.2 passing yards at home this season.
Pick: I think this game has the potential to be a shoot-out in Kansas City. Mahomes and the Chiefs looked great last week against the Raiders and could carry that momentum against a Cowboys defence that has been susceptible to big plays. That all could mean a big day for Dak while trying to stay with KC. I like the total passing yards of 291.5 to go OVER at -120, and his total pass completions of 24.5 to go OVER at -120.
