We head into Week 12 feeling confident after going a solid 2-1 for +0.90 units last week. We’re on a streak of winning weeks lately, so hopefully we can continue to stay on the money train this week. I’ve done all the work for you here in case you’d like to make things a little more interesting for your NFL Sunday.
Here are some players I’ve identified that could be profitable for you.
Record to date for the 2021 NFL season: 16-17 (-3.55 units)
Editor’s note: All betting lines are courtesy of Sports Interaction and are current as of the time of publication.
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals 1:00 p.m. ET
Wager to watch: RB Joe Mixon total rushing yards (Over 71.5 -120, Under 71.5 -120)
The Bengals host the Steelers in this AFC North showdown at Paul Brown Stadium today. Cincinnati is looking for their third straight win over Pittsburgh, but we want to focus on Joe Mixon’s total rushing yards prop.
Mixon carried the ball 30 times for 123 yards and two touchdowns in last Sunday's win over the Raiders. The 25-year-old running back is averaging 4.22 yards per carry on 18.0 rushing attempts this season with three runs that have exceeded 20 yards. Mixon also gets better when the weather gets colder. Cincinnati’s bell-cow running back notched the 12th 100-yard rushing game of his career last week, and nine of them have come in November and December. Mixon is also on the field for 66.13 per cent of Cincinnati’s snaps on offence.
The Steelers, meanwhile, certainly haven’t been ‘ The Steel Curtain’ against the run this season. Pittsburgh is 27th in the NFL by giving up 126.6 yards per game on the ground. The Steelers are slightly better on the road by surrendering 125.8 rushing yards per game which rank 26th in the league.
Has Pittsburgh been any better against running backs lately? The answer is no. Over their past seven games, the Steelers have coughed up 4.98 yards per carry to RBs which is 31st in the NFL over that time span. Pitt has also allowed 817 rushing yards to running backs over the past eight weeks which is 28th overall.
Pick: Joe Mixon is getting a ton of carries lately and racked up 90 rushing yards on 18 carries (5.0 yards per carry) in Week 3 at Pittsburgh. Mixon has also averaged a robust 5.4 yards per carry in his seven career games against Pittsburgh. Take Mixon’s total of 71.5 rushing yards to go OVER at -120.
Minnesota Vikings @ San Francisco 49ers 4:25 p.m. ET
Wager to watch: WR Brandon Aiyuk total receiving yards (Over 54.5 -110, Under 54.5 -130)
The Vikings travel to Santa Clara to square off with the 49ers in a battle of teams that have climbed back into the NFC wild card picture. Both teams have won two straight, but we want to talk about San Francisco’s Brandon Aiyuk and his total receiving yards prop here.
Aiyuk hauled in seven passes for 85 yards on seven targets and one touchdown last week against Jacksonville. The 23-year-old wide receiver has 29 receptions for 341 yards this season on 42 targets. Aiyuk, though, has been more of a focal point of the 49ers’ passing attack lately. He’s grabbed 20 receptions for 245 yards on 26 targets over his past four games. Aiyuk has also been on the field for 170 snaps over the past four weeks which is tops among San Francisco pass catchers. He’s also been good at home this season. Aiyuk is averaging 10.4 yards per reception and his average depth of target is 9.2 yards at Levi’s stadium in 2021.
Minnesota, meanwhile, has been on the struggle bus lately trying to slow down wide receivers. The Vikings have coughed up 950 yards to WRs over the past four weeks which is dead last in the NFL in that time frame. Minny has also given up 10.33 yards per target to wide-outs which is 30th in the league over the past four weeks. It doesn’t stop there; the Vikings have allowed 63 receptions to wide receivers which ranks 31st in the league over the past four weeks.
Pick: The Vikings were barbequed for a combined 238 yards on 11 catches by Green Bay’s Davante Adams and Marquez Valdes-Scantling last week at home. Brandon Aiyuk is once again becoming a favorite target of Jimmy Garoppolo which could mean a nice day for the San Fran receiver. With the Vikings’ struggling big time against wide receivers, I think there is too much value here with this matchup, so take the receiving total of 54.5 to go OVER at -110.
Los Angeles Rams @ Green Bay Packers 4:25 p.m. ET
Wager to watch: WR Cooper Kupp total receiving yards (Over 95.5 -120, Under 95.5 -120)
The Rams take on the Packers at Lambeau Field looking to avenge their 32-18 loss to Green Bay in the divisional round of the NFL playoffs this past January. Revenge games are always fun, but we want to dive into Rams wide receiver Cooper Kupp and his total receiving yards prop.
Kupp has been nothing short of spectacular this season for Los Angeles. The 28-year-old leads the NFL with 85 receptions and 1,141 yards and is just 165 yards away from breaking the NFL record for most receiving yards through Week 12. Kupp is fresh off another solid game by catching 11 of 13 targets for 122 yards in that Week 10 Monday night loss to the 49ers. Kupp has just taken his game to another level since Matthew Stafford has taken over as the starting quarterback of the Rams. His per game averages are flat-out great. Kupp is getting 8.5 receptions, 11.6 targets and an eye-popping 114.1 receiving yards per contest. L.A.’s No. 1 receiver is also averaging an absurd 13.42 yards per reception. Kupp is also averaging 18.1 yards per catch on the road this season.
The Packers, meanwhile, were torched by Justin Jefferson last week. The Vikings’ superstar racked up 169 yards on 8 receptions in Green Bay’s 34-31 loss in Minnesota. The Packers have allowed 574 receiving yards to WRs over their past four weeks which is 21st in the NFL in that time span. Green Bay’s pass defence has also yielded 47 receptions to receivers over the past four weeks ranking 20th in the NFL.
Pick: I know taking Cooper Kupp is extremely chalky, but with Robert Woods out for the season, and Odell Beckham Jr. still getting acclimated to the offence, Kupp should see a ton of work again today. Take the NFL’s best receiver to go OVER his total of 95.5 here at -120.