We head into Week 14 a little disappointed after falling just short on our Lamar Jackson rushing prop combined with a little bad luck with the injuries on Cincinnati’s O-line for the Joe Mixon rushing prop. We’re still feeling confident though, after going an 8-4 combined over the past four weeks. So, let’s get back on the winning train! I’ve done all the work for you here in case you’re thinking about throwing down a little cake on your NFL Sunday.
Here are some players I’ve identified that could be profitable for you.
Record to date for the 2021 NFL season: 20-19 (-1.95 units)
Editor’s note: All betting lines are courtesy of Sports Interaction and are current as of the time of publication.
Las Vegas Raiders @ Kansas City Chiefs 1:00 p.m. ET
Wager to watch: TE Travis Kelce total receiving yards (Over 75.5 -120, Under 75.5 -120)
The Raiders will try to reignite their season as they visit Arrowhead Stadium to take on their AFC West rivals from Kansas City. Las Vegas has lost four of their last five games while the Chiefs are red hot and have won five straight games, but we want to focus on Travis Kelce’s total receiving yard prop.
Kelce caught just three passes for 27 yards on a team-high eight targets against Denver last week. He has 70 receptions for 848 yards this season which ranks first in both categories for tight ends this season. Kelce continues to be the favourite target of Patrick Mahomes. The 32-year-old tight end has received 105 targets and is averaging 8.1 yards per target this season.
You want to dip into some advanced metrics? Sure, you do! Kansas City’s No. 1 tight end is averaging 67.6 air yards per game, 1.20 air yards per snap and his average depth of target is 7.7 yards which are all well above league average. Kelce is also averaging 22.7 per cent of the Chiefs’ team targets and is playing an average of 83.88 per cent of KC’s snaps on offence. The All-Pro tight end also roasted the Raiders last month in Week 10. Kelce racked up eight receptions for 119 yards on 10 targets in Kansas City’s 41-14 destruction of Las Vegas.
The Raiders, meanwhile, have been on the struggle bus this season when trying to slow down the tight end position. Las Vegas’ pass defence has given up 813 receiving yards to TEs this season, which ranks 30th in the NFL. Have the Raiders improved against tight ends at all recently? A little. Vegas has surrendered 259 receiving yards to TEs over their past eight weeks, which ranks 24th in the league. The Raiders have yielded 8.22 yards per target to tight ends over their past eight weeks, which is 27th in the league during that span. Las Vegas is also coughing up 256.8 passing yards per game on the road this season, which is 23rd in the National Football League.
Pick: Kelce has owned the Raiders in his career and I expect more of the same today at Arrowhead. I think there is a ton of value here with this matchup Take Kelce’s receiving total of 75.5 to go OVER at -120.
Detroit Lions @ Denver Broncos 4:05 p.m. ET
Wager(s) to watch: RB Javonte Williams total rushing yards (Over 67.5 -115, Under 67.5 -125), RB Javonte Williams total receiving yards (Over 20.5 -110, Under 20.5 -130)
The Broncos look to bounce back after their loss at Kansas City in primetime as they host the lowly Lions at Empower Field at Mile High. Detroit is on a winning streak for the first time in a year, but what we want to discuss is Denver’s Javonte Williams and his total rushing and receiving yards combined prop.
Williams carried the ball 23 times for 101 yards and grabbed six of his nine targets for 76 yards and a touchdown in last Sunday’s loss to the Chiefs. The rookie was the featured running back with Melvin Gordon III out. Williams could be the primary back again Sunday with Gordon III (hip injury) listed as questionable. Williams is getting 11.67 carries per game and has averaged 4.79 yards per rush. The 21-year-old has also averaged 6.4 yards per target on 42 targets while catching passes out of the backfield. The rookie running back is well above league average earning 3.5 yards after contact and 74.0 per cent of his yards are after contact. Williams is also averaging 10.8 per cent of Denver’s team targets and is racking up 9.0 yards after the catch.
The Lions, meanwhile, have had a tough time shutting down the run all season and have the 28th-ranked rush defence (131.1 rushing yards allowed per game). Detroit has also coughed up 1292 rushing yards to running backs this season — 26th in the NFL, 4.22 yards per carry to running backs this season, (16th) and 130.0 rushing yards per game on the road which is 27th. The Lions have also been struggling against running backs catching balls out of the backfield. Detroit’s pass defence has conceded 7.45 yards per target to RBs which ranks 30th in the NFL.
Pick: Calls for Williams to be the lead back in Denver were vindicated last week with this electric performance against the Chiefs. If you combine Gordon’s injury status and Detroit’s porous run defence, I feel like this could be another big game for the rookie running back. I’m taking Williams’ rushing prop of 67.5 yards to go OVER at -115 and his receiving prop of 20.5 yards to go OVER at -110.
San Francisco 49ers @ Cincinnati Bengals 4:25 p.m. ET
Wager to watch: TE George Kittle total receiving yards (Over 66.5 -120, Under 66.5 -120)
The 49ers travel to the ‘Nati to face the Bengals at Paul Brown Stadium in this inter-conference showdown. Cincinnati and San Francisco are both coming off losses and wasted opportunities to make a move for the better playoff positioning. The playoff races are great, but we want to take a closer look at George Kittle’s total receiving yards prop here.
Kittle was a beast last week in Seattle hauling in nine receptions for 181 yards on 12 targets against the Seahawks. Since Kittle returned from injury in Week 9 against the Cardinals, the tight end has 25 receptions for 379 yards on 33 targets in five games. The 28-year-old has averaged 9.9 yards per target on 61 targets in 2021. Kittle’s advanced metrics are also rock solid. The All-Pro tight end is averaging 51.1 air yards per game, 0.90 air yards per snap and his average depth of target is 7.5 yards. Kittle is also getting 17.7 per cent of the Niners’ team targets and he’s been on the field for 89.40 per cent of snaps on offence.
Cincinnati has been one of the more surprising stories in the NFL, but one thing they haven’t done well lately is stopping tight ends. The Bengals have coughed up 7.95 yards per target to TEs over their past eight weeks which ranks 26th in the NFL. Cincy has allowed 453 receiving yards to tight ends which ranks 27th in the league over the past eight weeks. The Bengals’ pass defence has also been bad at home this season by giving up 268.8 yards per game which is fourth-worst in the NFL.
Pick: I know Kittle had a monster game last week with Deebo Samuel out of the lineup for the 49ers. Even with Samuel back in, (although he’s banged up) I think Kittle will have success against a Cincinnati team that gave up 9.7 yards per reception to Jared Cook of the Chargers. Kittle is way more explosive than Cook, take his total receiving yards prop of 66.5 yards to go OVER here at -120.
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