NFL Week 2 betting preview: When will the overs start hitting?

NFL insider Chuck Edel joins Follow The Money to handicap one of the most intriguing matchups on Week 2, as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers lock horns with their division rival Saints, and why all signs point to another under total.

OK friends, one full week and two Thursday night games are officially in the books. How are we feeling? Are we off to a decent start? Have we been too aggressive? Are we honing in on any specific teams and/or trends we’ll carry into an intriguing Week 2 slate?

Week 1’s spread results were split evenly down the middle with favourites and underdogs both going 8-8. Home teams were 9-7 against the spread (ATS) and unders bettors had a solid start to the year with the under finishing 11-5.

This Thursday’s result saw late triumph for Chargers (+4.5) bettors with a back-door cover after blowing a lead against the Chiefs (-4.5). It was a fan-friendly game with a high score yet it still finished under the total.

The success of unders and underdogs were two major trends in 2021 and that’s how Week 2 has begun. Let’s take a look at the board complete with betting lines, totals and tidbits, plus weekly picks and parlays.


Miami Dolphins (+3.5) at Baltimore Ravens (-3.5) | Over/Under: 44.5
New York Jets (+6.5) at Cleveland Browns (-6.5) | Over/Under: 39.5
Washington Commanders (+1.5) at Detroit Lions (-1.5) | Over/Under: 48.5
Indianapolis Colts (-3.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars (+3.5) | Over/Under: 44.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5) at New Orleans Saints (+2.5) | Over/Under: 44.5
Carolina Panthers (+1.5) at New York Giants (-1.5) | Over/Under: 43.5
New England Patriots (-2.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers (+2.5) | Over/Under: 40.5
Atlanta Falcons (+9.5) at Los Angeles Rams (-9.5) | Over/Under: 46.5
Seattle Seahawks (+8.5) at San Francisco 49ers (-8.5) | Over/Under: 40.5
Cincinnati Bengals (-7.5) at Dallas Cowboys (+7.5) | Over/Under: 41.5
Houston Texans (+9.5) at Denver Broncos (-9.5) | Over/Under: 45.5
Arizona Cardinals (+5.5) at Las Vegas Raiders (-5.5) | Over/Under: 51.5
Chicago Bears (+9.5) at Green Bay Packers (-9.5) | Over/Under: 41.5

Tennessee Titans (+9.5) at Buffalo Bills (-9.5) | Over/Under: 48.5
Minnesota Vikings (+1.5) at Philadelphia Eagles (-1.5) | Over/Under: 51.5

As mentioned above, the under has cashed in 12 of the first 17 games so far but will the trend continue Sunday through to a double-header Monday? This week features plenty of low totals.

A few other things to keep in mind…

The Lions entered the weekend as favourites for the first time in nearly two full years; they host a Washington team coming off a come-from-behind win against the Jags.

Geno Smith led Seattle to an upset win over Denver to improve to 9-0 ATS as a starter dating back to 2016. Smith is 3-0 when the favourite and 6-0 when an underdog; this week the Seahawks are given a two-score window to cover versus the 49ers.

The last time the Steelers and Patriots played each other without either Tom Brady or Ben Roethlisberger involved was in 1998. Mac Jones and Mitch Trubisky end that streak.

Russell Wilson is 0-1 on the year while dressing like futuristic Peewee Herman. All that flash amounted to a deflating one-point loss to his former team in front his former fan base. Can the Broncos correct the mental errors that cost them against Seattle when they face Houston as big home favourites?

The underdog has covered the last five times the Panthers and Giants met.

Indianapolis returns to Jacksonville for the first time since Week 18 of last season. All Indy had to do was beat the 2-14 Jags and they would’ve made the playoffs. Jacksonville pulled the improbable upset and now the Colts have a chance at redemption.


(Each week throughout the regular season I’ll be sharing some of my top plays of the Sunday/Monday slate and will track my record, so you can follow or fade responsibly all season long. 2022 overall record to date: 6-6)

Favourites ATS (2-1): Colts (-3.5), Raiders (-5.5), Rams (-9.5), Bills (-9.5)
Underdogs ATS (1-1): Saints (+2.5), Dolphins (+3.5), Steelers (+2.5),
Overs (0-2): CAR/NYG 43.5, ARI/LV 51.5
Unders (1-1): NYJ/CLE 39.5, MIA/BAL 44.5, TB/NO 44.5
Moneyline dogs (2-1): Saints, Steelers

Tom Brady is 0-4 against the Saints in the regular season since joining the Bucs (he is 1-0 in the playoffs, though) and Tampa’s offence had a bunch of key names hit the injury report this week.

Not a big fan of the Cardinals this year, especially without DeAndre Hopkins, and Davante Adams is playing in front of his grandparents for the first time. Adams and Derek Carr will ball out and the Raiders will earn the W, even though I don’t love the fact this line jumped from 3.5 to 5.5 mid-week.

Miami and Baltimore has the potential to be wild and fun with all that speed and talent on the field, but at the end of the day these are two run-heavy teams with solid defences, so I expect plenty of clock to be chewed up.

Even without T.J. Watt I think the Steelers should be favoured at home. I also like the under on the lowest total of the week and the over on Sunday’s highest total. Gotta live on the edge sometimes.

The double-header Monday nighter should be fun. Buffalo is looking to impress in prime time for a second week in a row, while Vikings-Eagles might just end up being the best matchup of the week.


Editor’s Note: Gambling problems aren’t only about losing money. They occur on a continuum, and can affect a person’s whole life. To learn more about developing a healthy relationship to gambling, and to find resources for support, click here.



(Falcons star WR Calvin Ridley was suspended for the entire 2022 campaign for betting on games. The NFL concluded he placed three multi-leg parlay bets (three-, five- and eight-game parlays) that included the Falcons winning. Each week throughout the regular season we will attempt to cash three levels of Ridley-inspired parlays. 2022 record: 0-3)

The Falcons Falconed themselves in classic fashion in Week 1, losing by one point to the Saints after blowing a 16-point fourth-quarter lead. Had they held onto pull off the upset, Level 1 of the Ridley parlay would’ve hit thanks to KC and Baltimore handling business. Level 2 would’ve lost because the 49ers and Colts failed to pick up wins.

This week the Falcons face a Rams team hungry to bounce back from a one-sided home loss to the Bills. Since I have doubts Atlanta keeps it close at L.A. this week, why not swing for the fences with two additional dogs as our Level 1 base?

Ridley Parlay Level 1 (+2262): Falcons (+425), Steelers (+110), Saints (+125)
Ridley Parlay Level 2 (+4060): Falcons (+425), Steelers (+110), Saints (+125), 49ers (-425), Raiders (-235)
Ridley Parlay Level 3 (+11014): Falcons (+425), Steelers (+110), Saints (+125), 49ers (-425), Raiders (-235), Browns (-280), Colts (-185), Bengals (-360)

Weekly Ridley Confidence Level: Can’t get much lower. Save your units.

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