With Week 1 in the books, we now have some recent data points to help you make some better-informed decisions if you decide to put a little sprinkle on some player props. I’ve identified some matchups that you can potentially exploit in Week 2.
Editor’s note: All betting lines are courtesy of Sports Interaction, and current as of time of publication.
Denver Broncos @ Jacksonville Jaguars 1:00pm EST
Wager to watch: RB Melvin Gordon total rushing yards (Over 49.5 120, Under 49.5 -120)
The Broncos and Jaguars square off at TIAA Bank Field in Jacksonville in this intra-conference showdown. It’s not the sexiest matchup, but hitting an over prop is always hot! Let’s take a closer look at Melvin Gordon’s rushing total for this game.
Gordon is fresh off running for 101 yards on 11 carries and a touchdown against the Giants at the Meadowlands, adding three receptions for 17 yards. He now faces a defence that coughed up 160 yards on the ground against Houston in Week 1.
The 28-year-old was on the field for 33 snaps last week which tied him with rookie Javonte Williams. Gordon touched the ball on 42.4 per cent of the snaps when he was on the field and averaged 9.2 yards per carry.
The Jaguars, meanwhile, continue to struggle to stop the run. Jacksonville surrendered 2031 rushing yards to running backs in 2020 which ranked 30th in the NFL. The Jags also gave up 4.84 yards per carry which was 28th in the league last season. They've have also been gashed over their past five games by giving up a combined 881 rushing yards (176.2 per game) and 5.39 yards per carry to RBs.
Pick: Until the Jags can show that they can at least slow down opposing running backs, there continues to be value on taking RBs to go over the total versus Jacksonville. Take the total of 49.5 OVER at -120.
Tennessee Titans @ Seattle Seahawks 4:25pm EST
Wager to watch: WR Tyler Lockett total receiving yards (Over 70.5 -120, Under 70.5 -120)
The Titans look to bounce back after getting embarrassed by Arizona, while the Seahawks will try to build off their impressive win against the Colts when they host Tennessee at Lumen Field. Let’s dive into this Tyler Lockett receiving yards prop, shall we?
Lockett caught four of his five targets (20.0 yards per target) for 100 yards and two scores, including a beautiful over-the-shoulder touchdown catch that opened the scoring for Seattle at Indianapolis last week. Lockett got 23.8 per cent of the Seahawks’ team targets and his average depth of target was an eye-popping 21.8 yards.
Here are some more advanced stats that show how much he hit on some big plays against the Colts last week: Lockett had 2.37 air yards per snap and garnered 51.9 per cent of Seattle’s team air yards.
The Titans, meanwhile, were torched by the Cardinals receiving corps last week. Tennessee allowed 280 passing yards and 21 completions in that 38-13 home loss to Arizona. Struggling to stop wide receivers is nothing new to the Titans, who gave up 3109 yards to WRs last season which ranked 29th in the NFL. Tennessee also allowed 264 receptions to wide-outs in 2020 which was the second-most in the league.
Pick: The Titans struggle to put pressure on the QB which could give Russell Wilson even more time to look down field, and that could be bad news for Tennessee. I really like that spot for Lockett. I’m taking the total of receiving yards to go OVER the total 70.5 here at -120.
Kansas City Chiefs @ Baltimore Ravens 8:20pm EST
Wager to watch: TE Travis Kelce total receiving yards (Over 88.5 -120, Under 88.5 -120)
The Chiefs are on the road to take on the Baltimore Ravens in primetime at M&T Bank Stadium. Kansas City has won a franchise-record 11 straight regular-season road games, but we want to focus on Travis Kelce’s total receiving yards prop here.
Kelce continued right where he left off last season by grabbing six receptions for 76 yards and two touchdowns on seven targets (10.9 yards per target) against Cleveland last week. The TE received 20.6 per cent of Kansas City’s team targets last week with an average depth of target of 7.9 yards. Kelce was also on the field for 55 of the Chiefs’ 81 snaps on offence.
The Ravens had no answer for Las Vegas TE Darren Waller on Monday night, he had 10 catches for 105 yards on 19 targets (5.53 yards per target) and a touchdown. Baltimore, though, was good in covering tight ends last season by giving up 832 receiving yards (T-15th) and 6.93 yards per target (T-8th).
The problem for the Ravens? They can’t stop Travis Kelce. Kansas City’s tight end had six catches for 87 yards on seven targets (12.4 yards per target) in Week 3 against Baltimore last season. Kelce has racked up 26 catches for 326 yards and one touchdown in four career games against the Ravens.
Pick: The Ravens have shown repeatedly (at least over the past four games) that Kelce is just too much to handle. Until Baltimore can show me that they can slow him down, I’m taking the total of 88.5 OVER here at -120.