Favourites are 20-11-1 straight up (SU) but against the spread (ATS) it’s another story entirely early on in the 2022 NFL season. The dogs have been barking rather loudly through three weeks.
Hypothetically, if you had bet the underdog ATS and the under for every game prior to Week 4 you’d be winning more than 60 per cent of your bets and have an overall record of 58-35-3.
Thursday's result saw the Bengals cover as favourites in another under game, although Tua Tagovailoa’s wellbeing took priority over betting cards after a scary hit resulted in him being stretchered off the field and sent to the hospital.
With that Dolphins loss, there is only one remaining undefeated team in the NFL. Will that still be the case this time next week?
Let’s look at the Week 4 board with betting lines, totals and tidbits for each game, plus weekly picks and parlays.
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SPREADS & TOTALS
Minnesota Vikings (-2.5) vs. New Orleans Saints (+2.5) | Over/Under: 43.5
Cleveland Browns (-1.5) vs. Atlanta Falcons (+1.5) | Over/Under: 47.5
Buffalo Bills (-3.0) vs. Baltimore Ravens (+3.0) | Over/Under: 51.0
Washington Commanders (+3.0) vs. Dallas Cowboys (-3.0) | Over/Under: 41.5
Seattle Seahawks (+4.5) vs. Detroit Lions (-4.5) | Over/Under: 48.5
Los Angeles Chargers (-5.5) vs. Houston Texans (+5.5) | Over/Under: 44.5
Tennessee Titans (+3.5) vs. Indianapolis Colts (-3.5) | Over/Under: 42.5
Chicago Bears (+3.0) vs. New York Giants (-3.0) | Over/Under: 39.5
Jacksonville Jaguars (+6.5) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5) | Over/Under: 45.5
New York Jets (+3.0) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.0) | Over/Under: 41.5
Arizona Cardinals (+1.5) vs. Carolina Panthers (-1.5) | Over/Under: 43.5
New England Patriots (+9.5) vs. Green Bay Packers (-9.5) | Over/Under: 39.5
Denver Broncos (+2.5) vs. Las Vegas Raiders (-2.5) | Over/Under: 45.5
Kansas City Chiefs (+1.0) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1.0) | Over/Under: 45.5
Los Angeles Rams (+1.5) vs. San Francisco 49ers (-1.5) | Over/Under: 42.5
The Vikings and Saints meet across the pond in England this week. Favourites are 18-12 ATS in London games and in recent years the under has been profitable for the NFL’s International Series. With Jameis Winston hurt, this could end up a Kirk Cousins vs. Andy Dalton matchup.
Buffalo vs. Baltimore is the lone game with a total exceeding 50 points. Not surprising with unders hitting at such a high rate early this season. Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson are early frontrunners for league MVP.
Las Vegas is the lone 0-3 team in the NFL and one of two 0-3 teams ATS; New Orleans is also 0-3 ATS, while New England is 0-2-1 ATS.
Detroit and Atlanta are a combined 2-4 in the standings but a combined 6-0 ATS through three weeks. Detroit, Atlanta and Cleveland are the lone 3-0 teams on overs.
The Chargers have an NFL-low 177 rushing yards and they visit the Texans who allow a league-worst 202.3 rushing yards per game. There are 19 individual running backs that currently have more than the Chargers as a team.
Carolina and Arizona have the 30th- and 31st-ranked third-down conversation in the league, so a punt-fest is not necessarily out of the question.
Chicago rushes more than any team in the league, running the ball on more than 65 per cent of their offensive snaps. No team runs on more than 55 per cent of their snaps. The Bears and Giants are two of five teams with more than 500 team rushing yards prior to Week 4.
Tennessee has won four of their past five meetings with Indianapolis and the road team has covered the spread in six of the past seven matchups.
Titans-Colts is one of four divisional matchups this week. Commanders vs. Cowboys, Broncos vs. Raiders, and Rams vs. 49ers are the others.
The over has hit the past seven times Washington played Dallas at AT&T Stadium.
Aaron Rodgers is starting against Bill Belichick for just the third time in his career and hasn’t faced New England in four years.
Jacksonville can already match their win total from last season if they improve to 3-1 with an upset over an Eagles team aiming to begin a season 4-0 for the first time since 2004 in the Donovan McNabb era.
Myles Garrett could be on the sidelines for the Browns less than a week after his one-vehicle car accident but it’s unclear how much of an on-field impact he’ll have.
Jets sophomore starting QB Zach Wilson returned to practice this week. The 2021 second-overall pick finished 3-10 as a rookie with nine interceptions in his first five starts but only two over his final eight appearances.
The Sunday Nighter is a Super Bowl LV rematch where weather could be an issue. The game will still take place in Tampa despite surrounding areas recently being impacted by Hurricane Ian. The Bucs opened as the underdog but the line as since flipped sides.
The underdog has covered in seven straight meetings between the Rams and 49ers, who wrap the week up on Monday.
MIKEY J’S CARD …
(Each week throughout the regular season I’ll be sharing some of my picks for the Sunday/Monday slate and will track my record, so you can follow or fade responsibly all season long. 2022 overall record to date: 19-21)
Favourites ATS (4-7): Browns -1.5, Vikings -2.5, Giants -3, Eagles -6.5, Packers -9.5
Underdogs ATS (5-3): Commanders +3, Jets +3
Overs (2-4): CLE/ATL 47.5, TEN/IND 42.5, NYJ/PIT 41.5, WAS/DAL 41.5
Unders (3-4): CHI/NYG 39.5, MIN/NO 43.5, KC/TB 44.5
Moneyline dogs (4-3): Cardinals, Rams, Chiefs
OK, we’re feeling much better after going 9-5 across all picks in Week 3, including being perfect on dogs and moneyline dogs. Super interested to see what Zach Wilson is going to look like at Pittsburgh, and I think the Eagles will bring the Jags back down to earth to stay the lone undefeated team. The market has adjusted accordingly to unders hitting at such a high rate so far, so I’m hoping to see some reversal of that trend this week – plus, it’s always more fun cheering for the over.
THE WEEKLY RIDLEY
(Falcons star WR Calvin Ridley was suspended for the entire 2022 campaign for betting on games. The NFL concluded he placed three multi-leg parlay bets (three-, five- and eight-game parlays) that included the Falcons winning. Each week throughout the regular season we will attempt to cash three levels of Ridley-inspired parlays. 2022 record: 1-2)
We were a 49ers victory over the Broncos away from cashing all three levels of our Ridley parlays, which would’ve had us up a cool 70 units. Level 1 hit thanks to Atlanta beating Seattle and the Rams and Bengals taking care of business. Seven of the eight teams we went with at Level 3 won, however, we had San Francisco beating Denver in Level 2 and 3 yet they lost a 11-10 stinker, so neither hit.
This week the Falcons host the Browns and the line has crept Atlanta’s way all week. Let’s pair the Falcons with the two biggest favourites as our base and go from there to see if we can make it two weeks in a row.
Ridley Parlay Level 1 (+225): Falcons (+100), Packers (-500), Eagles (-280)
Ridley Parlay Level 2 (+725): Falcons (+100), Packers (-500), Eagles (-280), Colts (-192), Vikings (-150)
Ridley Parlay Level 3 (+3960): Falcons (+100), Packers (-500), Eagles (-280), Colts (-192), Vikings (-150), Giants (-160), Lions (-210), Rams (+105)
Weekly Ridley Confidence Level: Even though I’m picking them to win and cover, the Browns are ripe for the picking this week, so Level 1 hitting two weeks in a row is within reach!
(Odds and 2022 trends via Covers, moneyline odds via Bet365 as of Friday and subject to change)
