October football is upon us!
Last week’s Sunday slate produced 12 eight-point games which is tied for the most in NFL history during one day.
Week 4 is shaping to be even closer with 16 of the 18 spreads currently sitting within a touchdown.
Here’s everything you need to know before making your Week 4 picks.
Thursday, Oct. 1st
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cleveland Browns: 8:15 p.m. ET
Aaron Rodgers’ offence took a massive jump in Week 3 after head coach Mike McCarthy made changes to the offensive line in hopes of buying his veteran quarterback more time. It worked, drastically. The Steelers posted 30 points and for the first time in 70 games scored more than seven points in the first quarter.
The Browns on the other hand, roll in with a bit of extra motivation after some unfriendly comments from recently departed Steelers coach Mike Tomlin in his new broadcast role with NBC.
Cleveland earned back-to-back wins after an ugly showing in Week 1 but all eyes remain on their quarterback Deshaun Watson who has been solid with four touchdowns and zero interceptions during the two wins.
Pittsburgh is 0-9 when facing an AFC North opponent on a Thursday night and four of those losses have come to Cleveland, but it was Tomlin coaching in eight of those games. Look for the new Mike at the helm to keep his offence rolling in the right direction and burn some of their Thursday-night demons.
(Pick: Steelers -3)
Sunday, Oct. 4th
Indianapolis Colts @ Washington Commanders: 9:30 a.m. ET (London, England)
The Commanders head across the pond fresh off a massive win over the defending Super Bowl champions without their starting quarterback. Now, Jayden Daniels is questionable just two weeks after dislocating his elbow — an injury that forced him out of five games a season ago.
Indianapolis is coming off a last-second win in Houston and had Kansas City on the ropes in Week 2, before kicking a field goal in overtime to give Patrick Mahomes the ball with a chance to win — not a good idea.
The loss of Alec Pierce looked to be massive for Daniel Jones’ offence but veteran Keenan Allen stepped in and posted a 100-yard effort while finding the end zone.
Neutral-site games present their own challenges but these teams are shaping to deliver a high-scoring thriller for the fans in London. With or without Daniels, look for the Commanders to cover with the Colts potentially sneaking out another late victory.
(Pick Commanders +3.5)
New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills: 1 p.m. ET
Before the season this game was circled on many calendars to be a real battle of two AFC threats with opposing quarterbacks blossoming into an MVP battle. It’s only Week 4, but the hype for this game certainly took a hit.
Patriots fans are pulling the fire alarms on an offence that stalled out towards the end of a Super Bowl run last season, not to mention the panic surrounding the driving force. Drake Maye was in the MVP conversation last season, now he’s ranked among the bottom in all statistical categories and has as many touchdown passes as Malik Willis in Miami.
The good news for New England is that there is still plenty of time but another poor outing in Buffalo will certainly have Patriots fans wondering if it’s truly falling apart.
Buffalo escaped a shaky performance against another disappointment in the Chargers but are headed back home to their new stadium where they’ll want to set the tone for their divisional rivals that this is a place they’ll dread for years to come.
(Pick: Bills -6.5)
Green Bay Packers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 1 p.m. ET
Staring down an 0-3 record, the Buccaneers lost their starting quarterback Baker Mayfield as their season is appearing to circle the drain. They will now turn to undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels after Mayfield received semi-positive news he will only miss 2-4 weeks.
The other side of the field isn't trending in a positive direction either. A struggling offensive line has left Jordan Love running for his life and fans have lost more faith in head coach Matt LaFleur after a disappointing loss at home to the Atlanta Falcons.
In a game that very well could decide which head coach loses their job first this season, the Packers clearly hold the edge given the quarterback situation. They hope this game could be a jolt to their confidence they desperately need.
(Pick: Packers -3.5)
New York Jets @ Chicago Bears: 1 p.m. ET
Third-string quarterback Case Keenum delivered in primetime during a shocking victory over the Eagles on Monday night in his first NFL game since December 2023. Now the question remains if he can do it once again with Caleb Williams still doubtful after a scary hamstring injury in Week 2.
Head coach Ben Johnson will turn his attention to a resurging Jets team that has caused a few scares to start the year. But New York has stumbled a tad after a statement Week 1 victory in Tennessee, losing back-to-back one-score games. They’ll be without starting running back Breece Hall after he suffered a quad injury and is considered week-to-week.
Whether they turn to backup quarterback Tyson Bagent or run out Keenum once again, the Bears offence has shown they are capable of scoring points without Williams.
(Pick: Bears -3.5)
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Cincinnati Bengals: 1 p.m. ET
Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars head to Cincinnati for a star-studded clash with Joe Burrow and the Bengals in a very close matchup of 2-1 clubs.
The Jaguars are looking to keep building onto last year’s success under Liam Coen and have got out to another great start following a statement 35-6 win over the Patriots last week.
They’ll face another tall task with the Bengals’ defence showing promise despite playing in two high-scoring games. If the Bengals defence can’t keep Lawrence off the field, however, they’ll find themselves in another shootout.
(Pick: Jaguars +2.5)
Arizona Cardinals @ New York Giants: 1 p.m. ET
The Cardinals are surprising many — despite sitting at 1-2, they knocked off the Chargers in Week 1 and fought the 49ers to the end in Week 3. New head coach Mike LaFleur has his ball club trending in the right direction as they head to New York to face the Giants.
Fellow first-year boss John Harbaugh had his club headed in a similar direction before losing starting quarterback Jaxson Dart for the year. Enter J.J. McCarthy. After falling to catch on with the Vikings, the Giants are hoping he can slot in alongside Jameis Winston and provide enough down the stretch.
The tape in Minnesota doesn’t bode well for Giants fans but a change in scenery has done a lot for quarterbacks in this league. Just ask Seattle.
(Pick: Cardinals -2.5)
Los Angeles Rams @ Philadelphia Eagles: 1 p.m. ET
After dropping a game to the Bears led by a third-string quarterback, the Eagles will host another team coming off a disappointing loss. The Super Bowl-favourite Rams were stunned in Denver and now sit with a 1-2 record after the Week 1 debacle in Australia.
It’s hard to pick against these Rams but with Puka Nacua questionable and Myles Garrett on the shelf they are missing the stars that set them apart from the rest. With Buffalo awaiting the Rams in Week 5, another loss in Philadelphia could have them staring down a disastrous 1-4 start.
The Eagles have their own issues after two extremely close wins to start the year and are more importantly 0-3 against the spread.
(Pick: Rams -3)
Tennessee Titans @ Baltimore Ravens: 1 p.m. ET
The Ravens squeaked out a wild win over the Cowboys in Brazil after an unexpected loss at home to the Saints. Had Dallas executed on offence down the stretch, the Ravens were likely flying home 1-2. Instead they are 2-1 tied atop the AFC North, which came into the year favoured to win.
The Titans failed to beat the Dart-less Giants a week ago, so the Ravens have a prime opportunity to get back on the right track.
It’s a massive spread but the Ravens offence should have no issues finding the end zone.
(Pick: Ravens -11.5)
Dallas Cowboys @ Houston Texans: 1 p.m. ET
Dallas came into the season with classic Cowboys expectations and so far have failed to deliver on all fronts.
Acquiring Joey Porter Jr. to strengthen their secondary is a start but they’ll need improvement from within if they plan on reaching the playoffs.
The Texans are favoured but sit 0-3 with losses to the Bills, Bengals and Colts. Those aren’t bad football teams, but Houston came into the season with much higher aspirations.
Their defence has yet to show their potential from last season and Dallas has weapons all over the field.
(Pick: Cowboys +3)
Miami Dolphins @ Minnesota Vikings: 4:05 p.m. ET
Miami is the least surprising 0-3 team and just lost their best player on offence for the year as De’Von Achane suffered an ACL injury last week.
Minnesota, on the other hand, is perhaps the most surprising 3-0 team following their 9-3 win in a Week 2 slobberknocker over the Bears.
Defensive coordinator Brian Flores has his Vikings defence firing on all cylinders and the Dolphins' lowly offence will be one of his easiest tests all season.
(Pick: Vikings -11)
Kansas City Chiefs @ Las Vegas Raiders: 4:25 p.m. ET
The Klint Kubiak-led Raiders will face their toughest test of the season as they host Mahomes and the Chiefs.
But they are tied with the Chiefs atop the AFC West after Kirk Cousins became the latest to drink from the fountain of youth with nine touchdowns in three games.
Steve Spagnuolo has had offensive coordinators in a blender since he arrived in Kansas City at the helm of the defence and should be in his bag once again in Week 4.
This will be a much different test for the Raiders offence, faced with keeping up with Travis Kelce on the other side who has hauled in 14 receptions for 231 yards and a pair of touchdowns in his age-36 season.
(Pick: Chiefs -4.5)
Denver Broncos @ San Francisco 49ers: 4:25 p.m. ET
The 49ers offence has been rolling through the first three weeks, having scored 27, 35 and 36 points respectively and quarterback Brock Purdy is tied for the league-lead with nine touchdowns.
While a Vance Joseph-led defence presents a much bigger challenge for the 49ers' surging offence, the Broncos have struggled out of the gate allowing the fourth-most yards to start the season.
Broncos top target Jaylen Waddle is expected to play despite leaving in a walking boot from their win over the Rams and they’ll need all hands on deck to keep up with the 49ers.
(Pick: 49ers -2.5)
Los Angeles Chargers @ Seattle Seahawks: 4:25 p.m. ET
The Chargers fooled everyone. Since 1990, only five teams have rebounded to make the playoffs after an 0-3 start. For a team that came into the year with expectations of making the next step, they’re heading in the wrong direction, quickly.
They are now faced with the defending Super Bowl champions on the road. Not to mention, Seattle comes in fresh off its first regular-season loss since September 2025.
The Seahawks defence hasn’t missed a beat since last year’s Super Bowl run and should hold nicely against a touchdown spread if they build an early lead.
(Pick: Seahawks -7)
Detroit Lions @ Carolina Panthers: 8:20 p.m. ET
The Panthers dropped a winnable game to the Browns on the last drive and will look to rebound back into the top spot in the NFC South with a tough test against Jared Goff and the Lions.
Detroit has escaped with two close wins over the Saints and the Jets due to the fact Jahmyr Gibbs is leading the league in touches and is tied for touchdowns.
The Lions defence remains banged up and the two teams are no strangers to a shootout this season.
(Pick: Panthers +3.5)
Monday, October 5th
Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints: 8:15 p.m. ET
When NFL fans learned the Falcons were slated for three consecutive primetime games after starting 0-2, many asked if it was too early to initiate a schedule flex.
Fear not, Michael Penix Jr. returned in Week 3 and gave the Falcons life with a massive victory on the road over the Packers as they looked like an entirely new team on both sides of the ball.
They head to New Orleans for a divisional clash with the Saints who have been playing solid football for three weeks with a tight loss to the Lions and a massive win over the Ravens.
Expect this one to come down to the wire.
(Pick: Saints -2.5)
*BetMGM lines subject to change
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