Week 2 may have been the week of quarterback injuries, but in Week 3, the injury bug hit numerous other positions, including Mike Evans (hamstring), Terry McLaurin (quad), James Conner (season-ending ankle injury), Alec Pierce (concussion), Najee Harris (Achilles), Nick Bosa (ACL), and more.
Now, as we move toward Week 4, there are two things top of mind: the Minnesota Vikings and Pittsburgh Steelers game in Dublin and New York Giants QB Jaxson Dart getting his first start following up-and-down performances from veteran signal-caller Russell Wilson.
Below, I’ll provide predictions for each game in Week 4. The games on this slate, along with Super Bowl odds for every team, are available at the BetMGM online sportsbook.
Arizona Cardinals vs. Seattle Seahawks
Over his career, Cardinals QB Kyler Murray is just 2-8 against the Seahawks, including 1-5 at home.
Now, he’s facing a 2-1 Seahawks squad that’s allowing just 90 rushing yards per game (seventh-least), and has 48 QB pressures (seventh).
On top of that, the Cardinals are without Conner after his season-ending ankle surgery.
PREDICTION: Seahawks -1.5 (-110)
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Minnesota Vikings
Live from Ireland, the Vikings are sending Carson Wentz out for another start as J.J. McCarthy recovers from his ankle injury.
Minnesota looked excellent in Week 3, but it was against the Cincinnati Bengals at home without Joe Burrow.
That said, the Steelers' offence has been fairly up-and-down to start the season, averaging just 247 total yards per game (30th).
Additionally, last season with the New York Jets and arguably a better offensive line, Steelers QB Aaron Rodgers completed just 53.7 per cent of his passes for 244 yards, two touchdowns, and three interceptions against this same Brian Flores-coached Vikings defence.
PREDICTION: Vikings -2.5 (-115)
Houston Texans vs. Tennessee Titans
While laying seven points is a lot for a Texans offence that looks incredibly mediocre, the Titans are even worse. It hasn’t been a good start to the season for rookie QB Cam Ward.
Now, on the road against the Texans, who have a defence that consists of Will Anderson Jr., who leads the NFL in pressures (19), and a unit as a whole that only allows 206.7 passing yards (13th) per game, I suspect a low-scoring affair.
Still, the Texans may only need 17 points to cover the number or push.
PREDICTION: Texans -7 (-110)
Atlanta Falcons vs. Washington Commanders
Commanders starting QB Jayden Daniels is still considered questionable, but even if it’s Marcus Mariota drawing another start, I’m taking Washington.
Last weekend, in his first start since 2022, Mariota completed 71.4 per cent of his passes on 21 attempts.
Dating back to 2022, when he had 13 starts with the Falcons (funnily enough), he still had a solid touchdown-to-interception ratio (15:9) and averaged over 33 rushing yards per game, while adding four rushing scores.
His rushing ability, coupled with the Commanders’ multi-headed backfield, will get the job done.
PREDICTION: Commanders -1 (-110)
Buffalo Bills vs. New Orleans Saints
Following another win and a 3-0 start to the season, the Bills' odds to win the Super Bowl are +425 (the best in the league).
Now, they’re at home against the Saints as 16.5-point favourites.
That may be an obscene number of points, but I said it last week, too: This Saints offence is horrendous. Rattler could have 40 pass attempts, and the ball wouldn’t move whatsoever.
The Bills are far from a perfect defence, but I haven't seen anything from the Saints’ offence that demonstrates the ability to even get into good enough field position to consistently kick field goals.
PREDICTION: Bills -16.5 (-110)
Detroit Lions vs. Cleveland Browns
The Browns have had a stifling defence statistically, allowing 147 passing yards (fourth least) and 57.3 rushing yards (least) per game.
Here, I’m siding with the Lions. Yes, the number is high at nine points when considering the Browns' defence, but I’m also taking into account their stagnant offence.
Running back Quinshon Judkins has looked good, but now they have injuries along the offensive line to Jack Conklin (questionable) and Dawand Jones (out for the season), allowing Lions edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson and company to get after Browns QB Joe Flacco.
I’m expecting a final score of something like 21-10.
PREDICTION: Lions -9 (-110)
New England Patriots vs. Carolina Panthers
Here’s a fun stat: Over his career, Panthers QB Bryce Young is just 1-14 in road games as the starting QB.
That said, they have a decent chance at covering the spread here. A big variable, though, is the health of Patriots cornerback Christian Gonzalez.
If he’s 100 per cent and gets out on the field, he will make it a difficult afternoon for Panthers rookie receiver Tetairoa McMillan.
Conversely, the Panthers have a good pass defence to start the year, surrendering 196.7 passing yards (12th) per game.
I’m not terribly excited about either team’s offence right now, so I’ll take the Panthers plus the points somewhat begrudgingly.
PREDICTION: Panthers +5.5 (-110)
New York Giants vs. Los Angeles Chargers
There’s a lot of excitement surrounding Dart, who was a blast to watch in college under centre at Ole Miss.
That said, this is still the Giants. Dart will be playing behind a bad offensive line and against a Chargers pass rush that has 45 pressures (tied for 10th) this season.
On the other side, the Chargers' offence has been excellent. Sure, they’ll need to contend with the Giants' pass rush, which also has 45 pressures, but QB Justin Herbert has been phenomenal to start the season.
He faces a Giants defence that’s surrendered 252 passing yards (fifth-most) and 153.3 rushing yards (second-most) per game.
PREDICTION: Chargers -6.5 (-110)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Philadelphia Eagles
The Buccaneers are home underdogs, and I’m taking this opportunity to take them at +3.5.
Eagles offensive lineman Lane Johnson left Week 3 early with a neck injury and is questionable for Week 4. This could be a problem as the Buccaneers are fourth in the NFL in pressures with 52.
The Eagles' defence is fairly balanced between Cover-1, Cover-3, Cover-4, and Cover-6.
Against those coverages this season, Mayfield has four touchdown passes and zero interceptions. He’s been great against Cover-4, completing 21 of 29 passes (72.4 per cent) for 220 yards and a touchdown.
He’s without Evans, but he still has Emeka Egbuka and a decision on Chris Godwin is coming at the end of the week.
PREDICTION: Buccaneers +3.5 (-110)
Los Angeles Rams vs. Indianapolis Colts
While the Rams have an excellent defensive line and pass rush, they’re hosting a Colts team that — and I can’t believe I’m saying this — has a good QB in Daniel Jones.
The Rams primarily play Cover-3 and also mix in Cover-1 and Cover-2.
Against those three, Jones is 45 of 61 (73.8 per cent) for 632 yards (10.4 yards per attempt) and two touchdowns.
With Alec Pierce suffering a concussion, this could impact the downfield game, but Jones still has players who can get vertical.
Plus, the offence has RB Jonathan Taylor, who leads the NFL in carries, rushing yards, carries per game and is tied for the lead in 10-plus yard runs.
PREDICTION: Colts +3.5 (-110)
San Francisco 49ers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
After aggravating a PCL injury, my hunch is Mac Jones will be out and Brock Purdy will be back in the starting lineup for the 49ers in Week 4.
This bodes well as the Jaguars mostly play Cover-3 and Cover-6. Dating back to last season, Purdy is 133 of 174 (76.4 per cent) for 1,776 yards (10.2 yards per attempt) against those coverages.
Conversely, the 49ers primarily play Cover-3. This season, Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence has a 54 per cent completion rate, averages 5.1 yards per attempt, and has two interceptions against this type of coverage.
Give me the home team.
PREDICTION: 49ers -3 (-118)
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens play Cover-1 and Cover-3 more than anything else.
Against those coverages, Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes is completing just 55 per cent of his passes, averaging 6.5 yards per attempt, and has one touchdown and one interception.
The Ravens are the better team at the moment.
PREDICTION: Ravens -2.5 (-115)
Las Vegas Raiders vs. Chicago Bears
The Bears' offence began clicking in Week 3, beating the Dallas Cowboys 31-14.
The Cowboys primarily played Cover-3, and Bears QB Caleb Williams completed 13 of 18 passes (72.2 per cent) for 201 yards and two touchdowns.
Now, he’s facing a Raiders team that primarily plays Cover-3.
I sense another good outing for this Bears offence.
PREDICTION: Bears -1 (-102)
Dallas Cowboys vs. Green Bay Packers
The Cowboys' defence is terrible, and they’re without WR CeeDee Lamb.
Now, they host a Packers team with Micah Parsons in his first game back in Dallas?
Ouch.
I’m taking the Packers -7, but it’s a bit deeper than Parsons returning to Dallas for the first time.
The Packers' primary coverages are Cover-1, Cover-2, Cover-3, and Cover-6.
Dating back to last season, Cowboys QB Dak Prescott has completed 76.5 per cent of his passes for 333 yards (6.5 yards per attempt), one touchdown, and three interceptions against those coverages when Lamb is not on the field.
Couple those turnovers with the Cowboys’ defence, and their offensive line versus this Packers pass rush, and it could be a rough afternoon.
PREDICTION: Packers -7 (-105)
Miami Dolphins vs. New York Jets
The Jets play a mix of coverages, including Cover-1, Cover-2, Cover-3, and Cover-4.
Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa has a high completion percentage (70.3), but averages just 6.1 yards per attempt and has four interceptions against those coverages.
I’ll take the Jets +2.5.
PREDICTION: Jets +2.5 (+100)
Denver Broncos vs. Cincinnati Bengals
I’m not going to advocate for the Bengals' defence, as it has shown time and time again to be among the worst in the league, but the numbers don’t lie.
The Bengals primarily deploy Cover-1, Cover-3, and Cover-6 defences. Against those coverages, Broncos QB Bo Nix is averaging just 5.5 yards per attempt and has two touchdown passes and two interceptions.
As for Bengals QB Jake Browning, it wasn’t pretty in Week 3, but I think he’s in for a better game.
The Broncos play Cover-1 and Cover-3. Dating back to 2023, against those coverages, Browning has completed 73.9 per cent of his passes for 947 yards (8.5 yards per attempt), nine touchdowns, and three interceptions.
The Broncos win, but the Bengals cover.
PREDICTION: Bengals +7.5 (-110)
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