We head into Week 7 on a bit of a heater here going 5-1 over the past two weeks. Let’s hope we can stay hot as I try to find some value for you in the player prop market. I’ve done the research for you here in case you’re feeling like placing a wager on a player prop or two.
Here are some players I’ve identified that could have a nice day on Sunday.
Record to date for the 2021 NFL season: 10-8 (+0.15 units)
Editor’s note: All betting lines are courtesy of Sports Interaction and are current as of the time of publication.
Carolina Panthers @ New York Giants 1 p.m. ET
Wager to watch: RB Chuba Hubbard total rushing yards (Over 74.5 -120, Under 74.5 -120)
The Panthers have lost three games in a row, while the Giants are coming off a pair of brutal losses. Do you need a reason to watch this dog’s breakfast of a game? What about some Canadian content? Let’s get excited about Edmonton’s Chuba Hubbard and his total rushing yards prop!
Hubbard carried the ball 16 times for 61 yards and a touchdown in last Sunday's 34-28 overtime loss to Minnesota and will make his fourth start in place of the injured Christian McCaffrey. The rookie running back is getting 17.6 carries per game and has averaged 73 rushing yards per game as the primary back in McCaffrey’s absence. The 22-year-old has averaged 2.5 yards after contact and has been on the field for 59.0 per cent of Carolina’s snaps on offence since McCaffrey has been out injured.
The Giants have had a tough time shutting down the run all season and have the 28th-ranked rush defence (137.2 rushing yards allowed per game). New York has also coughed up 735 rushing yards to running backs this season – 31st in the NFL, 4.68 yards per carry to running backs this season, (28th) and 121.7 rushing yards per game at home (tied for 20th).
Pick: Panthers coach Matt Rhule said this week that we wants to test the Giants' run defence. That’s good news for Hubbard who could have a big day against New York’s porous run defence. I’m taking Hubbard’s rushing total of 74.5 yards to go OVER here at -120.
Atlanta Falcons @ Miami Dolphins 1 p.m. EST
Wager to watch: WR Calvin Ridley total receiving yards (Over 76.5 -120, Under 76.5 -120)
The Dolphins return home to face the Falcons after their embarrassing loss to the Jaguars in London. Miami has dropped five straight, while Atlanta is fresh off a win in London in Week 5.
We want to focus on Calvin Ridley’s receiving yards total in this one.
The Falcons wideout didn’t play in Week 5 in London due to personal reasons and is good to go after the bye week. He continues to be Matt Ryan’s favourite target, collecting 42 targets (10.5 per game) while averaging 6.1 yards per target in four games. Ridley has at least 50 receiving yards in each game he’s played this season and has played in 253 of Atlanta’s 282 snaps on offence when he’s in the lineup.
Ridley has 255 receiving yards (63.75 per game) and is averaging 6.75 receptions per game so far in 2021. The advanced metrics on the four-year veteran have been rock solid this season, averaging 109.5 air yards per game, 1.84 air yards per snap and is receiving 20.9 per cent of the team’s targets.
The Dolphins, meanwhile, have been torched by wideouts through six games. Miami’s pass defence has conceded 9.40 yards per target to wide receivers (27th in the NFL), 1260 receiving yards to receivers (30th) and 90 receptions – 15 per game – to wide receivers (27th).
Need some more proof that Miami’s pass defence is struggling? The Dolphins are giving up 319.7 passing yards per game over their last three games, the second-highest amount in the NFL in that timespan.
Pick: The Dolphins haven’t been able to shut down the wide receiver position all season. Miami’s secondary is also banged up with Xavien Howard and Byron Jones dealing with injuries. I think there is value here with a rested Ridley against a banged-up Dolphins’ secondary that struggles against receivers. Take Ridley’s receiving total of 76.5 to go OVER at -120.
Houston Texans @ Arizona Cardinals 4:25 p.m. EST
Wager to watch: RB James Conner total rushing yards (Over 55.5 -120, Under 55.5 -120)
The Texans are fresh off getting their doors blown off by the Colts last week in Indianapolis and now visit State Farm Stadium to face undefeated Arizona. The Cardinals are the biggest favourite on the board this week, which could mean lots of work for Arizona’s running backs. We’re going to zero in on James Conner’s rushing prop here.
James Conner had 16 carries for 71 yards in the Cardinals’ 37-14 beatdown of the Browns last week. So far, he is getting 13.2 carries per game and has averaged 45.3 rushing yards per game in his first year in the desert. The 26-year-old is receiving an eye-popping 66.2 per cent of his yards after contact and an average of 2.3 yards after contact. He played 54.7 per cent of the snaps on offence for Arizona last week while the Cardinals were up big in the second half as well.
In addition, the former Steeler is touching the ball on 46.9 per cent of his snaps this season and that could increase Sunday with fellow “Red Birds” running back Chase Edmonds banged up while dealing with a shoulder injury.
The Texans are coming off a game where they were run over by Jonathan Taylor and the Colts. Houston surrendered 174 rushing yards in Indianapolis and are 31st against the run (141.3 rushing yards allowed per game). Houston has the worst run defence as the visitor by giving up 176.3 yards per game on the road through six weeks this season. The Texans are giving 5.15 yards per carry to running backs, which ranks 31st in NFL and have allowed 732 rushing yards overall to running backs, or 122 yards per game (30th in the NFL).
Pick: The Texans are in tough in this matchup as double-digit underdogs. This could be a game where the Cardinals are pounding the football in the second half with a big lead and that could mean plenty of Conner. I like him to go OVER his rushing total of 55.5 yards at -120.