Week 8 began with something rather unusual. Baltimore beat Tampa Bay Thursday night (that’s not the unusual part) which meant Tom Brady has lost three consecutive games for the first time in two decades.
The Bucs, now 3-5, were 2.5-point favourites at kickoff, so put another one on the board for the underdogs, now covering the spread in 57.5 per cent of games so far this season – road dogs in particular have covered at roughly 58.8 per cent.
The Chiefs and Chargers are the only teams on bye this week but with the Nov. 1 trade deadline around the corner, this weekend is the final opportunity for teams to assess their rosters and potentially make a trade.
Let’s look at the Week 8 board with betting lines, totals and tidbits, plus weekly picks and parlays.
SPREADS & TOTALS
Denver Broncos (+2.5) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (-2.5) | Over/Under: 39.5
Carolina Panthers (+4.0) vs. Atlanta Falcons (-4.0) | Over/Under: 41.5
Chicago Bears (+9.5) vs. Dallas Cowboys (-9.5) | Over/Under: 42.5
Miami Dolphins (-3.5) vs. Detroit Lions (+3.5) | Over/Under: 51.5
Arizona Cardinals (+3.5) vs. Minnesota Vikings (-3.5) | Over/Under: 48.5
Las Vegas Raiders (-1.5) vs. New Orleans Saints (+1.5) | Over/Under: 49.5
New England Patriots (-2.5) vs. New York Jets (+2.5) | Over/Under: 40.5
Pittsburgh Steelers (+10.5) vs. Philadelphia Eagles (-10.5) | Over/Under: 43.5
Tennessee Titans (-2.5) vs. Houston Texans (+2.5) | Over/Under: 40.5
Washington Commanders (+3.0) vs. Indianapolis Colts (-3.0) | Over/Under: 39.5
San Francisco 49ers (-1.5) vs. Los Angeles Rams (+1.5) | Over/Under: 42.5
New York Giants (+3.0) vs. Seattle Seahawks (-3.0) | Over/Under: 44.5
Green Bay Packers (+10.5) vs. Buffalo Bills (-10.5) | Over/Under: 47.5
Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5) vs. Cleveland Browns (+3.5) | Over/Under: 45.5
Broncos and Jaguars are playing overseas Sunday morning in the NFL’s third and final trip to England this season as part of its International Series. The over and the underdog ATS are both 2-0 in international games in 2022.
The Falcons are 6-1 ATS as underdogs but are favourites against the Panthers who are 2-2 ATS as underdogs.
Bears QB Justin Fields is coming off a win over the Patriots; he has won two consecutive games twice previously in his career.
Detroit vs. Miami has the highest total of the week; the Dolphins are 2-5 on overs through seven weeks.
DeAndre Hopkins had 10 catches and 103 yards on 14 targets in his season debut for the Cardinals last week. He has two TDs in two career games against the Vikings.
New Orleans listed Andy Dalton as starting QB despite Jameis Winston being back healthy; Dalton is 3-0 with a 5:0 TD:INT ratio in his career against the Raiders. The Saints and Raiders are a combined 9-3-1 on overs this season.
The Patriots have defeated the Jets 12 consecutive times dating back to 2015.
Titans RB Derrick Henry didn’t play the Texans in 2021 but combined for rushed for 462 and four touchdowns in his two games against Houston in 2020.
Sam Ehlinger is now the starter in Indianapolis. He is the Colts’ 13th different starting QB since Peyton Manning.
The 49ers have won seven regulars-season games in a row against the Rams but were eliminated by them in the post-season this past January.
Giants-Seahawks is the only game this week that features two teams above .500.
The Browns are 6-1 against the Bengals when Myles Garrett plays. Garrett has 4.5 sacks in three NFL games against Joe Burrow, who all of a sudden could be without his top weapon, Ja’Marr Chase.
Both Aaron Rodgers and Josh Allen have been money in primetime, but can these Packers hold up against these Bills?
MIKEY J’S CARD …
(Each week throughout the regular season I’ll be sharing some picks for the Sunday/Monday slate and will track my record, so you can follow or fade responsibly all season long. 2022 overall record to date: 37-47)
Favourites ATS (10-13): 49ers -1.5, Jaguars -2.5, Seahawks -3.0, Colts -3.0, Falcons -4.0, Eagles -10.5
Underdogs ATS (12-9): Saints +1.5, Jets +2.5, Cardinals +3.5, Lions +3.5
Overs (5-11): WAS/IND 39.5, NE/NYJ 40.5, LV/NO 49.5
Unders (7-11): DEN/JAX 39.5, MIA/DET 51.5
Moneyline dogs (8-10): Jets, Saints, Cardinals
It’s usually not a good sign when you like most favourites on the board, especially during a season in which underdogs are cashing at close to 60 per cent.
THE WEEKLY RIDLEY
(Falcons star WR Calvin Ridley was suspended for the entire 2022 campaign for betting on games. The NFL concluded he placed three multi-leg parlay bets (three-, five- and eight-game parlays) that included the Falcons winning. Each week throughout the regular season we will attempt to cash three levels of Ridley-inspired parlays. 2022 record: 3-4)
The Falcons have an opportunity to take sole possession of first place in the NFC South after the Bucs fell to 3-5. As four-point favourites, the Falcons are expected to beat the Panthers who are riding high after upsetting Tampa last week.
Ridley Parlay Level 1 (+200): Falcons (-210), Titans (-140), Eagles (-525)
Ridley Parlay Level 2 (+325): Falcons (-210), Titans (-140), Eagles (-525), Cowboys (-450), Bills (-550)
Ridley Parlay Level 3 (+2720): Falcons (-210), Titans (-140), Eagles (-525), Cowboys (-450), Bills (-550), Colts (-150), 49ers (-125), Jets (+120)
Weekly Ridley Confidence Level: High. Pairing our Dirty Birds with some heavy chalk throughout the first two levels. Titans -2.5 is the rat line of the week so it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Texans play parlay buster this week.
(Odds and 2022 trends via Covers, moneyline odds via Bet365 as of Friday and subject to change)
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