We head into Week 8 on a bit of a down note after going 1-2 last week, but we’re 6-3 over the past three weeks so let’s stay positive.
Let’s get back on the winning train as I try to find some value for you in the player prop market. I’ve done the research for you here in case you’re feeling a little spicy and want to place a wager on a prop or two.
Here are some players I’ve identified that could be profitable for you.
Record to date for the 2021 NFL season: 11-10 (-1.25 units)
Editor’s note: All betting lines are courtesy of Sports Interaction and are current as of the time of publication.
Cincinnati Bengals @ New York Jets 1 p.m. EST
Wager to watch: WR Ja’Marr Chase total receiving yards (Over 76.5 -125, Under 76.5 -115)
The streaking Bengals look for their third straight win as they visit the slumping New York Jets at MetLife Stadium. Mike White will make his first NFL start for the Jets a week after taking his first NFL snaps in place of the injured Zach Wilson. But forget about New York’s issues at quarterback. We want to discuss red-hot rookie Ja’Marr Chase and his total receiving yards prop.
Chase is fresh off another stellar game against Baltimore last week with a career-high eight receptions for 201 yards on 10 targets. The 21-year-old continues to be Joe Burrow’s No. 1 receiver and has racked up an eye-popping 457 receiving yards over his past three games.
Chase has 35 receptions on 51 targets so far in 2021 and the advanced metrics on the rookie wide receiver are rock solid. He’s averaging 110.4 air yards per game, 2.17 air yards per snap and his average depth of target is 15.2 yards. Chase is also averaging 21.5 yards per catch which ranks second in the NFL, trailing only Las Vegas’ Henry Ruggs.
The Jets, meanwhile, have been average against wide outs so far in 2021. New York’s pass defence has yielded 8.26 yards per target to receivers, ranking 17th in the NFL. The Jets have also surrendered just 843 receiving yards to WRs, the third-best total in the league, and 206.0 passing yards per game at home this season, which ranks eighth.
Pick: Until teams can prove they can shut down Chase’s explosiveness, I think there is value here as long oddsmakers continue to keep the rookie’s receiving yards total down. Take the receiving total of 76.5 to go OVER here at -120.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New Orleans Saints 4:25 p.m. EST
Wager to watch: RB Alvin Kamara total rushing yards (Over 56.5 -120, Under 56.5 -120)
The New Orleans Saints host the defending Super Bowl champions in this NFC South showdown from Caesars Superdome on Sunday. New Orleans swept the season series last year before having their five-game winning streak against Tampa Bay snapped in the first-ever playoff matchup.
We want to focus on Alvin Kamara’s total rushing yards prop here. Kamara carried the ball 20 times for 51 yards and caught 10 of 11 targets for 128 yards and a touchdown in Monday’s 13-10 victory at Seattle. He is averaging 3.7 yards per rush this season with just one run that has exceeded 20 yards.
If you dig into the advanced numbers, Kamara has been a little underwhelming by averaging just 2.4 yards after contact and his 88.6 positive run percentage are below league averages.
The Buccaneers continue to be the gold standard when it comes to stopping the run, too. They had the No. 1 run defence last season by allowing just 82.7 yards per game. Tampa has been even better so far this year by giving up an NFL-low 67.4 yards per game.
It gets better, the Buccaneers are allowing just 58.3 rushing yards per game on the road this season (No. 1 in the NFL), 359 rushing yards to running backs this season (second) and 3.74 yards per carry (sixth). The Bucs held Kamara to just 56 yards (28 per game) on 21 carries (10.5 per game) in their two regular season matchups in 2020 as well.
Pick: The Saints acquired former New Orleans running back Mark Ingram from the Texans to cut down on Alvin Kamara’s workload, especially when it comes to running the football. I think this total is too high especially with Tampa’s stout run defence and New Orleans’ desire to incorporate Ingram into their rushing attack. Take the total of 56.5 to go UNDER at -120.
New York Giants @ Kansas City Chiefs – Monday, 8:15 p.m. EST
Wager to watch: QB Daniel Jones total rushing yards (Over 21.5 -120, Under 21.5 -120)
We wrap up Week 8 at Arrowhead on Monday night as the struggling Chiefs host the banged-up Giants. New York could be without several play makers on offence while the two of Kansas City’s three wins this season were against NFC East teams: Philadelphia and Washington.
We want to zero in on Giants quarterback Daniel Jones and his rushing total prop for this game. Jones completed 23 of 33 passes for 203 yards and one touchdown in last Sunday’s 25-3 beat down of the Panthers with eight rushes for 28 yards and a spectacular 16-yard reception.
Jones has now topped 25 rushing yards four times this season and is averaging 5.6 yards per carry. New York’s signal caller has totaled 229 rushing yards this season on 41 carries (5.85 per game) and has two runs that have gone 20-plus yards and one that has gone over the 40-yard mark through seven games.
The 24-year-old now takes on a Kansas City team that has struggled to stop the run all season. The Chiefs are giving up 128.9 rushing yards per game (27th in the NFL), 5.6 yards per carry to quarterbacks this season (26th) and 241 yards rushing to quarterbacks this season (31st).
Pick: Kansas City’s defence has been atrocious this season both on the ground and through the air. I think Jones will have some success here running the football and this run total is a little low based on the Chiefs’ inability to stop mobile quarterbacks. I think there is a ton of value on Jones to rush for OVER 21.5 yards at -120.
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