We head into this week licking our wounds after getting beaten up in Week 8. The first full Sunday of November games means we can dive more into some more recent trends. I’ve done that here while using just the past four weeks of action as a data point. I’ve done the research for you in case you’re feeling a little frisky and want to place a wager on a prop or two.
Here are some players I’ve identified that could be profitable for you.
Record to date for the 2021 NFL season: 11-13 (-4.85 units)
Editor’s note: All betting lines are courtesy of Sports Interaction and are current as of the time of publication.
Los Angeles Chargers @ Philadelphia Eagles 4:05 p.m. EST
Wager to watch: TE Dallas Goedert total receiving yards (Over 55.5 -120, Under 55.5 -120)
The Eagles have won three of the last five meetings against the Chargers. Philadelphia punished the Lions 44-6 last week in Detroit while the Chargers fell 27-24 to the Patriots in Los Angeles. Both teams are headed in opposite directions, but we want to zero in on Dallas Goedert’s total receiving yards total.
Goedert reeled in six receptions for 72 yards on seven targets against the Lions last week. The 26-year-old tight end has 24 receptions for 358 yards on 31 targets so far in 2021. The advanced metrics on Philadelphia’s No. 1 tight end are solid. He’s averaging 38.7 air yards per game, 0.88 air yards per snap and his average depth of target is 8.7 yards. Goedert is also averaging 12.8 per cent of the Eagles’ team targets and is playing an average of 71.33 percent of Philadelphia’s snaps on offence.
The Chargers have been struggling against tight ends lately. Los Angeles’ pass defence has yielded a horrendous 13.95 yards per target to tight ends over the past four weeks which is the worst mark in the NFL during that span. The Bolts have also surrendered 265 receiving yards to TEs over the past four weeks which ranks 27th in the NFL.
Pick: Los Angeles has done a good job of shutting down wide receivers lately but haven’t had an answer for tight ends. I think there is value here with this matchup setting up nicely for Goedert. Take the receiving total of 55.5 to go OVER here at -120.
Tennessee Titans @ Los Angeles Rams 8:20 p.m. EST
Wager to watch: RB Adrian Peterson total rushing yards (Over 32.5 -120, Under 32.5 -120)
The Rams gun for their fifth straight victory in their only home game in November as they face the Derrick Henry-less Titans. Tennessee has won four straight but will begin life without arguably the NFL’s top running back who’s out for at least the next six weeks. We want to focus on one of Henry’s replacements in the Titans back field, Adrian Peterson, and his total rushing yards prop.
Peterson joined Tennessee’s practice squad earlier this week and should be a part of a committee that includes Jeremy McNichols. Dontrell Hilliard or D’Onta Foreman could potentially be in the mix to carry the rock for the Titans too. The 36-year-old rushed for 604 yards on 156 carries (3.87 yards per rush) last season in 16 games for the Lions. Peterson had four runs that exceeded 20 yards.
The Rams have been shutting down the run recently. Los Angeles has given up 264 rushing yards to running backs over the last four weeks, the ninth-best total in the NFL during that time. The Rams are giving up just 3.57 yards per carry to RBs in their last four games, which is fourth best in the NFL.
Pick: The Rams have been shutting down running backs over the past four weeks and tonight should be more of the same. Peterson is 36, isn’t in mid-season form and has to face a stout Rams run defence in his first game action in months. Take the total of 32.5 to go UNDER at -120.
Chicago Bears @ Pittsburgh Steelers 8:15 p.m. EST (Monday night)
Wager to watch: RB Najee Harris total rushing yards (Over 79.5 -120, Under 79.5 -120)
The Steelers are a remarkable 27-5 at home since Monday Night Football began in 1970, including 19 straight wins. Pittsburgh was won three straight while the Bears have dropped three in a row. We want to focus on Steelers’ running back Najee Harris and his total rushing prop.
Harris racked up 91 yards on 26 carries and a touchdown while catching all three of his targets for 29 yard in last Sunday’s 15-10 win at Cleveland. The 23-year-old running back is averaging 3.74 yards per rush this season on 18.29 carries per game. Harris is the undisputed bell cow and is averaging 23.6 touches per game and has been on the field for 405 of the 471 snaps Pittsburgh has taken on offence this season. If you dig into the advanced numbers, Harris has been solid by averaging just 2.3 yards after contact and is getting 62.2 per cent of his yards after contact.
The Bears are fresh off being gashed by the 49ers for 145 rushing yards last week in their 33-22 home loss to San Francisco. Chicago has surrendered 5.50 yards per rush to running back over the past four weeks, which ranks dead last in the NFL during that span. The Bears have coughed up 506 rushing yards to RBs over their past four games, which is 31st in the NFL in that time frame. Chicago has also allowed 135.5 rushing yards per game on the road this season.
Pick: We should be getting a heavy dose of Harris against a leaky Bears run defence that hasn’t been able to slow down the run over their past four contests. Take the total of rushing yards to go OVER.
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