NFL X-Factors: Can Akers bounce back for Conference Championship?

Follow The Money's Mitch Moss and Pauly Howard run through the odds on some of the updated NFL props heading into this weekend, including why Cooper Kupp is still the favourite to haul in the most receiving yards these playoffs.

It’s not often we get to say this, but here we go: the 2021 NFL Divisional Round was the greatest four consecutive games in the history of the league.

Hot take? At this point, probably not, given that every single NFL headline was somehow one-upped by the very next game right through to Sunday night’s thriller between Kansas City and Buffalo. My condolences, Bills Mafia – at least Josh Allen is going to be your quarterback for the foreseeable future, right?

Looking back on last week’s x-factor picks, they once again mostly came through with 20 catches, 332 yards and four receiving touchdowns – admittedly, when one of your picks is a record-setting Gabriel Davis, it’s hard not to be right!

With the Conference Championship games on tap, and a Los Angeles trip to the Super Bowl itself at stake, let’s take a look at one player from each team that need to make the difference for their squads on Sunday.

Rams, RB, Cam Akers (vs. 49ers)
I know it might be an odd choice to go with Akers after his two fumbles almost cost the Rams a win last weekend, but hear me out on this one. When it comes to the LA offence, we know their strength is in the passing game – Matthew Stafford, Cooper Kupp, Odell Beckham Jr., and Van Jefferson are just a few of the names we’re going to hear a lot of on Sunday. What’s more is that the 49ers defence is a particularly tough draw – they limited opposing running backs to just 3.6 yards per carry in the regular season.

However, when it comes to Akers, Sean McVay has shown little hesitation to give him a full workload since returning early from last year’s injury in Week 18 – in the two playoff games he’s played so far, he has touched the ball 45 times, and has been on the field for 90 snaps (including 95 yards from scrimmage in the beatdown against Arizona in the Wild Card game). If McVay wants a balanced offence they’re going to have to continue handing the ball off to Akers, who is easily their most dynamic running back. If the Rams get down near the goal-line, expect to see a heavy dose of Akers as they try to punch one in.

49ers, TE, George Kittle (@ Rams)
When it comes to picking x-factor players on the 49ers, the choices are actually pretty slim – mainly because we all know where the ball is going. Kyle Shanahan’s primary weapons are Deebo Samuel (in the pass and run game) and Eli Mitchell, and everyone else is largely secondary.

Take Kittle, for example: in two games vs. the Rams this season, he has a combined 10 catches, 60 yards, and a touchdown – Samuel, meanwhile, factored far more heavily into both of those wins. If the 49ers want to come through with a remarkable seventh straight win over the Rams, they’ll need their 6-foot-4, 250-pound tight end to exploit some mismatches – we often see plays that call for Kittle to be aligned in the slot and Samuel in the backfield, which gets the smaller cornerbacks lined up on the big tight end. Look for Shanahan to get Kittle going in this one, especially down in the red zone.

Chiefs, RB, Jerick McKinnon (vs. Bengals)
Whenever running backs are thrust into a committee, it always makes the waters a little murky. Now that Clyde Edwards-Helaire is back from his shoulder injury, the three-headed backfield of him, McKinnon and Darrel Williams could be difficult to navigate.

If I had to pick one, however, I’m taking McKinnon because of his work in the passing game of an offence that loves to throw the ball. Edwards-Helaire will likely get more work on the ground after a 60-yard effort vs. the No. 1-ranked defence last week, but over the last three games, McKinnon has 14 catches for 161 yards and two touchdowns. That's impressive numbers for someone we thought was the ‘break glass in case of emergency’ running back heading into the playoffs.

Looking deeper into last week’s shootout, McKinnon played 53 snaps compared to Edwards-Helaire’s 23, and the Bengals matchup looks like a positive one for McKinnon. Cincinnati allowed the fifth-most receptions (108) and the sixth-most receiving yards (769) to running backs in the regular season. With Patrick Mahomes’ love for slinging the football – he’s thrown the ball a whopping 83 times in two playoff games so far – there’s a good chance McKinnon is going to be a beneficiary on Sunday.

Bengals, WR, Tee Higgins (@ Chiefs)
Going into the 2021 NFL Draft, I remember thinking to myself there was no way the Bengals would take LSU wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase given the clear need for an offensive tackle to protect Joe Burrow. Well, I (and many others) were completely wrong, as not only did they reunite the two college champions in the NFL, but Chase has been essentially unstoppable en route to a likely Offensive Rookie of the Year win. Heck, his biggest performance of the year, a 266-yard, three touchdown effort, came against these same Chiefs back in Week 17.

However, the reason I thought the Bengals would be fine if they didn’t take a top pass-catcher was the presence of Tee Higgins – in his rookie year, he had 908 receiving yards, and then followed up with 74 catches for 1091 receiving yards in just 14 games in 2021, which is very impressive.

Against Tennessee last week, he acquitted himself very well once again; he led the team with nine targets, and snagged seven of them for 96 receiving yards. With the Chiefs pass defence on the lower end of the DVOA scale (23rd against the pass, according to Football Outsiders), Higgins will be an oft-targeted option for Joe Burrow as the Bengals try to advance to their first Super Bowl berth since 1988.

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