And then there were eight.
With wild-card weekend in the books, banishing six more teams to an early off-season, it’s time to fix our focus on the divisional round.
After the first six games of the playoffs brought just one close contest — five of last weekend’s tilts were decided by at least two scores — the divisional round projects to be the most entertaining weekend of the season.
With that in mind, let’s take a look at one player from each team poised to play a pivotal role to help their squad advance to the conference finals.
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C.J. Stroud, QB, Houston Texans | @ Chiefs, Saturday 4:30 p.m. ET
It’s stating the obvious to highlight a team’s starting quarterback as an X-Factor, but the truth is that the C.J. Stroud we watched in 2024 is not the same one we saw dazzle the NFL throughout his rookie campaign a year ago. In almost every way, the Texans signal-caller took a step back in his sophomore season. More passing attempts resulted in fewer passing yards, fewer touchdowns, a lower completion percentage and more than double the interceptions.
Despite all that, Houston still easily won its divisions and toppled the Chargers to advance to the divisional round at least in part thanks to Stroud. Following an ad-libbed 34-yard gain on third and forever vs. the Chargers last weekend, Stroud woke up to the tune of 282 passing yards — the most by any quarterback on wild-card weekend.
The Chiefs have been resting since Christmas, and are returning almost every player as healthy as can be. If Stroud wants to upset the two-time defending Super Bowl champions on the road, he’ll need to be on his game in a way he hasn’t been for much of 2024.
Joe Thuney, OL, Kansas City Chiefs | vs. Texans, Saturday 4:30 p.m. ET
Through his first six seasons as a starter, Patrick Mahomes never sustained more than 28 sacks in a single campaign. In 16 games this past season — the Chiefs rested all their starters for the season finale — he was sacked 36 times. That puts the Chiefs in league-average territory in both the regular season and playoffs — of the quarterbacks still contending, Stroud has been sacked the most (52) followed by Jayden Daniels (47) and Jalen Hurts (38), then Mahomes (all numbers are pulled from the regular season, and don’t include playoffs).
A big part of the reason for Kansas City’s step back on the o-line lies with the lack of continuity along the unit. Head coach Andy Reid has been forced to start four different players at left tackle at different points this season.
Enter Joe Thuney. The four-time Super Bowl champion is typically deployed along the interior as a guard, but following both poor play and numerous injuries to his linemates, he was tasked with protecting Mahomes’ blind side — and has excelled.
Reid has said so far this week that he’s going to rotate Thuney and in-season addition D.J. Humphries in practice, and that one of them will start Saturday’s game at left tackle. Against a Texans pass rush that boasts both Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson Jr. and just disrupted L.A.’s playoff hopes last Saturday, whoever gets that start will need to be at the top of their game if the Chiefs hope to get their offence going.
Bobby Wagner, LB, Washington Commanders | @ Lions, Saturday 8 p.m. ET
Early in the season, the Commanders looked dead in the water on defence, relying largely on the magic Jayden Daniels was producing on offence on a near-weekly basis. And considering they’ve endured five straight games that have come down to the final possession, that seems like a winning formula.
After defensive struggles throughout the regular season, Washington turned things around against the Buccaneers last Sunday thanks in large part to Bobby Wagner. In his first playoff game as a Commander, Wagner led the team in tackles, picked up a key fumble late and was integral in limiting Tampa Bay’s explosive plays and stifling its run game.
The Lions won’t be quite as easy an out. Running backs Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery (who is trending towards playing Saturday after avoiding surgery on a knee injury suffered in Week 15) are the heads of a rushing offence that averages nearly 150 yards per game. That success has helped Detroit stake its claim as the league’s best play-action passing team. If the Commanders want their own offensive magic to continue, they’ll need Bobby Wagner to keep turning back the clock on defence.
Jameson Williams, WR, Detroit Lions | vs. Commanders, Saturday 8 p.m. ET
It’s been an up-and-down start to a promising career for Williams coming out of college. A first-round pick despite a torn ACL in the 2022 NCAA National Championship, he missed most of his rookie season, and after serving a four-game suspension to start his second season he then spent the rest of 2023 primarily as a role player.
Williams’ play took a giant leap forward in 2024: he set career highs in virtually every category and logged 1,000 receiving yards for the first time. He and teammate Amon-Ra St. Brown became the first Lions receiving duo to both reach the mark since 2017.
Detroit has the No. 1 ranked scoring offence in the NFL, and Williams is a big part of that. He’s used in all roles in Ben Johnson’s offence, from deep shots downfield to end-around plays on the ground. While St. Brown, alongside tight end Sam LaPorta, are favoured targets of quarterback Jared Goff, the speedy Williams can be used in a variety of ways to keep Washington’s pass defence guessing.
Chris Shula, defensive coordinator, Los Angeles Rams | @ Eagles, Sunday 3 p.m. ET
Picking the defensive coordinator is always somewhat of a catch-all, as it’s tough to give credit to just one player in a unit as well-rounded as the Rams’. Against the Vikings, Shula’s defence bullied Sam Darnold to the tune of nine sacks, tying an NFL record for most in a single playoff game.
Shula has a bevy of options to choose from — DROY favourite and All-Pro Jared Verse looms large, but teammates Kobie Turner, Byron Young, Braden Fiske and Cobie Durant have all contributed meaningful moments.
This game is a rematch of a Week 12 contest in which the Eagles handily beat the Rams, which saw Philadelphia put up 37 points and 314 rushing yards, but things have changed significantly. Since then, the Rams have allowed just 15 points and 100.5 rushing yards per game (excluding Week 18, when head coach Sean McVay rested most starters). If Shula can continue to rally the troops on defence, the Rams have another shot at a dark-horse run in the NFC.
Jalen Hurts, QB, Philadelphia Eagles | vs. Rams, Sunday 3 p.m. ET
Jalen Hurts is no longer being asked to carry the load on offence, and that can only be viewed as a good thing. Teammate Saquon Barkley rumbled to over 2,000 rushing yards in 2024, just the ninth player to ever accomplish such a feat, as the Eagles locked up the No. 2 seed in the NFC.
But if the Rams sell out to stop Barkley on Sunday, can Hurts challenge them with his arm? That’s what makes Hurts such an interesting X-Factor this week. In his last four full regular-season games he played (not including the game in which he only threw four passes before leaving with a concussion) he topped 200 passing yards only once.
Even last week, as he returned for a decisive win over the Packers, the passing game once again looked out of sorts. Hurts completed merely 61.9 per cent of his passes for 131 yards and a pair of touchdowns.
The Eagles will have to be very careful with Hurts and their passing game against an opportunistic Rams defence.
Rashod Bateman, WR, Baltimore Ravens | @ Bills, Sunday 6:30 p.m. ET
Heading into last weekend’s wild-card matchup against the Steelers, there was a valid question as to how the Ravens would pass the ball without wide receiver Zay Flowers, who missed the game due to a knee injury sustained in Week 18.
Offensive coordinator Todd Monken showed us his answer: they didn’t. The Ravens used five different rushers in Saturday’s run-heavy win to the tune of 50 total carries. Quarterback Lamar Jackson only threw the ball 21 times. They will likely follow a similar gameplan against the Bills.
While we know the Ravens will generally run the ball a lot in any situation, they still need positive gains through the air to keep the offence on schedule. If Flowers is unable to go, Bateman will be asked to step into the team’s No. 1 role. He caught both of his targets against the Steelers for 24 yards and a touchdown, the game’s opening score.
Bateman fulfills a few roles for the team, though he has largely been used as the deep threat this season. If he’s asked to take on a bigger role in the passing game, he’ll often be Jackson’s first read.
Matt Milano, LB, Buffalo Bills | vs. Ravens, Sunday 6:30 p.m. ET
The Bills finished the regular season 13-4, and of those four losses, only one team beat them by more than three points. That team was the Ravens, who visit Orchard Park this Sunday.
In that 35-10 shellacking by Baltimore in Week 4, the Bills were missing a variety of players on defence, including Matt Milano. The linebacker has missed a fair amount of time over the last few seasons — he fractured his leg early in 2023 and missed the rest of the year, and then suffered a torn biceps in training camp and didn’t make his 2024 debut until early December.
The last few weeks have largely been about shaking off the rust for Milano, but judging by his play against the Broncos on Sunday, the Bills’ All-Pro looked like his old self. He helped defend the run well, and lined up near the line of scrimmage often to help spy and pressure the quarterback.
Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry present a very different problem than rookie Bo Nix and a seldom-used Javonte Williams, to be sure, but Milano’s return to form — and the returns of fellow defenders Terrel Bernard and Taron Johnson, neither of whom played in Week 4 in Baltimore — will present a very different look for the visiting team on Sunday evening.
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