NFL X-Factors: Six players poised to have big impact on Wild Card Weekend

NFL fantasy guru Paul Charchian joins Follow The Money to discuss whether he's hearing anything truth to the Lane Kiffin to Vikings or Jim Harbaugh to Bears rumours, and who he'd rather see become Minnesota's next head coach.

Over the course of the 2021 NFL regular season, one word seemed to reign supreme: parity. Now, as we look ahead to the NFL post-season, that same word comes to mind.

Over the past 18 weeks, we saw every single team in the league suffer grisly losses to (supposedly) inferior opponents at one point or another, giving us a playoff field that has few real favourites. Sure, you might feel confident in the Green Bay Packers or the Kansas City Chiefs, but if either of those teams fails to move onto the Super Bowl…? Some eyebrows will be raised, but would anyone truly be too surprised, given all that we’ve seen this year?

This parity extends to an individual player level, too. While we think we all largely know who is going to produce, every year there’s someone who steps up in a big way to suddenly become a household name for a weekend. For example, Washington quarterback Taylor Heinicke, Rams running back Cam Akers, and Packers receiver Allen Lazard are just a few names that emerged in the 2020 playoffs. So, who will it be this year? Let’s take a look at six X-Factor candidates who could make all the difference this weekend.

Tyler Boyd, WR, Cincinnati Bengals (vs. Raiders)
Look, we know what these Bengals are all about: They have a standout quarterback, a Pro Bowl running back, and a trio of talented wideouts in Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and Tyler Boyd. Leaning on these five players is what got the Bengals their first division crown since 2015, and the simple truth is that not a lot of teams have the horses to keep up with all of these players at the same time.

Expect Cincinnati to lean heavily on Mixon -- in three career games against the Raiders, he has 356 yards from scrimmage and five touchdowns -- but we all know this game will be won or lost on the arm of Joe Burrow. And with defences focused on the challenge of defending against Chase and Higgins, that should leave Boyd with more than enough space to operate.

Here are some statistics for you: The Raiders have allowed the ninth-most passing touchdowns league-wide (of the current playoff teams, only the Packers and Cardinals have allowed more). Boyd has been an integral part of the Bengals' passing offence all year -- he has seen fewer than five targets in a game only four times all season, and ended his 2021 regular season with a three-game touchdown reception streak. That he’s managed those numbers while co-existing with Chase and Higgins, who each topped 1,000 receiving yards in just 14 games, suggests that he will be heavily involved in the game plan this Saturday.

Devin Singletary, RB, Buffalo Bills (vs. Patriots)
Throughout the Josh Allen-Sean McDermott Bills era, one of the questions we’ve asked a lot has been ‘Why is the run game so lacking?’ It’s a quarterback’s best friend, and even though Allen himself is capable of scrambling for first downs, the run game just hasn’t been very productive down in Orchard Park.

Enter Devin Singletary. In the final seven games of the year, as the Bills' backfield ran primarily through him, he’s been very productive, getting 123 combined touches (carries and targets). It’s true that New England also has a pretty stout defensive unit, but remember: a number of Patriots players -- Christian Barmore, Dont’a Hightower, Jamie Collins, Lawrence Guy, and Kyle Dugger just to name a few -- were were banged up in the last few weeks of the season.

Sure, some of those guys could play, but if one or more of them miss Saturday’s game, you can be sure McDermott and offensive coordinator Brian Daboll will take advantage against a team they played twice in December. Keep this in mind as well: If the Bills, who are already favoured in this game, manage to take the lead at any point you can be sure Singletary will be involved in any attempts to grind out the clock.

Rob Gronkowski, TE, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (vs. Eagles)
This one might be cheating, as we all know the dominant force Playoff Gronk can be when fully healthy. The only reason he's listed here is because he is critical to the success of both teams – as in, Tampa needs him to get going early and often, and Philadelphia needs to shut him down if they want to pull off an upset.

The Buccaneers have already lost Chris Godwin to a torn ACL, Antonio Brown is no longer a member of the team, and they have a bevy of role players (Cyril Grayson, Ronald Jones) listed as questionable as well, which puts the pressure on Gronk to be at his best.

It’ll be fascinating to see the chess match play out here. Despite his position, Gronk often lines up as the lone receiver out wide when three pass-catchers are on the field, while teammate Mike Evans takes the slot. So, will All-Pro cornerback Darius Slay (who rarely plays inside) follow Gronk around the field? Keep an eye on Gronk when he’s flying up the seam – even at his age, his massive catch radius still gives him an edge over most players in today’s NFL.

Dalton Schultz, TE, Dallas Cowboys (vs. 49ers)
When examining the Cowboys' offence, it’s actually pretty easy to make the case that any single weapon can be an X-Factor in his own right. But while there are about six or seven players you could credibly make an argument for, let's focus on Schultz.

First of all, the 49ers defence is much more gettable through the air than on the ground – they are second in rush defence DVOA, according to Football Outsiders, and 16th in pass defence DVOA. That bodes well for Dak Prescott, who loves to sling the ball – and Schultz, who has been one of the primary beneficiaries.

In the regular season, Schultz was tied for the team lead with eight touchdown receptions, and was second in targets down in the red zone (12). He was also second on the team in overall targets (104) and receptions per game (4.6), meaning he clearly has the trust of Prescott when they’re in a pinch inside the opposing 20-yard line.

Byron Pringle, WR, Kansas City Chiefs (vs. Steelers)
Trying to figure out which pass catcher not named Tyreek Hill or Travis Kelce will grab Patrick Mahomes' attention is difficult at best.

Even so, as we forecast the depth options behind the two All-Pros, Pringle is the one that stands out the most. From Week 14 through to the end of the season, Pringle actually ranked first on the Chiefs in routes run, which he turned into 18 receptions on 24 targets for 216 receiving yards and two touchdowns. It's tempting to point to Pringle’s teammate, Mecole Hardman, as well – after all, he had 257 receiving yards in the same span – but it’s important to note that 103 of those yards came in Week 18 with Hill limited due to a heel injury.

With Hill on the mend (he was a full participant in practice as of Wednesday), Hardman's place in the playbook could be minimal. Pringle, on the other hand, has already shown he can co-exist with Kansas City’s top options. Given that the Chiefs have been one of the most pass-happy offences in the league, Pringle is sure to be involved as long as Mahomes continues to chuck the ball.

Zach Ertz, TE, Arizona Cardinals
It’s been a pretty turbulent season for Ertz, who went from Philadelphia to the high-octane Kyler Murray-led offence in Arizona. It wasn’t exactly a smooth transition, either – he topped 50 yards just twice in his first six weeks out in the desert.

His first real opportunity came when wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins was knocked out of the team's mid-December loss to the Rams with a knee injury. Suddenly, Ertz saw a massive piece of the Cardinals' target share. Over the final four weeks of the season, the tight end racked up 28 catches on 43 targets for 253 receiving yards, becoming an integral part of the passing attack in Hopkins’ absence. Running back Chase Edmonds has also missed time with injury, so with the depth chart looking somewhat scarce, Ertz has been a target hog.

Head coach Kliff Kingsbury has already said Hopkins will not suit up versus the Rams in Monday's Wild Card matchup, while Edmonds is a game-time decision. Either way, the newest member of the Cardinals is sure to be peppered with targets, as Murray will need to lean on the short-to-intermediate passing game with All-Pro defensive tackle Aaron Donald & Co. lurking just beyond the line of scrimmage.

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