The Cincinnati Bengals are in the Super Bowl for the third time in franchise history while the Los Angeles Rams are making their second Super Bowl appearance in four seasons. But we’re not here to break down the point spread, we’re here to talk about some props.
I’ve decided to attack this week’s piece a little differently (it’s the Super Bowl!) I’ve zeroed in on three player props to go along with a defensive prop and a special teams prop. Here are some of the plays that could (fingers crossed) make your Super Bowl Sunday even more super!
Record to date for the 2021 NFL season: 33-31 (-5.05 units)
Editor’s note: All betting lines are courtesy of Sports Interaction and are current as of the time of publication.
Wager to watch: WR Odell Beckham Jr. total receiving yards (Over 63.5 -130, Under 63.5 -110)
Odell Beckham Jr., caught nine passes for 113 yards on 11 targets in Los Angeles’ 20-17 comeback win over the San Francisco 49ers on Championship Sunday. Since joining the Rams, OBJ has been a beast. He has 46 receptions for 541 yards in 11 games and the 29-year-old wide receiver continues to be a favourite target of Rams QB Matthew Stafford.
Beckham Jr., has seen at least five targets in five of his last six games totalling 43 targets and has caught four passes for 74 yards on six targets in his last healthy game against Cincinnati in Week 2 of last season while playing with Cleveland.
The Bengals, meanwhile, had the 26th-ranked pass defence this season by giving up 247.7 yards per game. Cincinnati has surrendered 539 receiving yards (179.6 per game) to wide-outs in three playoff games in 2022. The Bengals have also allowed 41 receptions and 8.17 yards per target to WRs in their past three games.
Pick: This once again is all about Cincinnati trying to contain Cooper Kupp. So that potentially means another big game from Beckham Jr. I keep hammering home this point, I don’t think that oddsmakers have adjusted to Beckham’s prop totals based on his production and target share. This total again is too low again for me. Take OBJ’s receiving total of 63.5 to go OVER at -130.
Wager to watch: RB Cam Akers total rushing yards (Over 64.5 -115, Under 64.5 -125)
This prop is all about opportunity, or potentially lack thereof.
Cam Akers rushed for 48 yards on 13 carries in Los Angeles’ victory over San Francisco on Championship Sunday. The 22-year-old running back has rushed for 151 yards (50.3 per game) on 54 carries (18 per game) over his past three games while coming back from an Achilles tendon injury. But Rams head coach Sean McVay said earlier this week that running back Darrell Henderson Jr., could factor in L.A.’s rushing attack after coming back from a knee injury.
“I think Darrell’s going to go. So, you’ll have Cam (Akers), Darrell and Sony (Michel),” said McVay. “You’ll be able to see a good, three-back rotation, based on how the game unfolds.”
That obviously tells me that Akers could see a lot less of the football. Henderson was the Rams leading rusher before going down.
Cincinnati has been solid against the run all season by allowing just 106.2 yards per game on the ground which was eighth best in the NFL. Cincinnati was slightly worse on the road by giving up 110.5 rushing yards per game. The Bengals, though, have given up 5.59 yards per carry and 313 yards (104.3) to running backs so far this post-season which ranks dead last in the NFL over the past three games.
Pick: I know that the Bengals have struggled lately against the run, but Akers hasn’t exceeded 55 rushing yards in four games since returning from injury. I think this total is too high and combined with a potential three-way time share in the Rams’ backfield. I’m taking Akers’ rushing prop of 64.5 yards to go UNDER at -125.
Wager to watch: WR Tee Higgins total receiving yards (Over 68.5 -135, Under 68.5 -105)
Tee Higgins is getting plenty of looks from Joe Burrow. Higgins has seen at least five targets in four of his last five games including 19 over his past two games. He’s averaging 10.47 yards per target over his last two post-season games. Much like how the Bengals will try to shut down Cooper Kupp, the same could be said for Ja’Marr Chase. Expect elite Rams cornerback Jalen Ramsey to be matched up with Chase which could open the door for a big Higgins game. He’s also had two catches of 20-plus yards and one that exceeded 40 yards in three playoff games.
The Rams, on the other hand, had the 21st-ranked pass defence this season which gave up 238.6 yards per game. Los Angeles has allowed 404 receiving yards (134.6 per game) and 5.94 yards per target to receivers this post-season. The Rams are also fresh off giving up eight catches for 141 yards on 15 targets combined to San Francisco’s Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk.
Pick: Tee Higgins has been a monster over his last two playoff games and I think that continues for the Super Bowl. This total is too low with his big-play ability and the fact that he’s received 19 targets over his past two games. I think there is too much value here with this matchup, so take Higgins’ receiving total of 68.5 to go OVER at -135.
Wager to watch: LB Leonard Floyd total sacks (Over 0.5 +120, Under 0.5 -170)
This matchup is all about the Bengals’ offensive line and their propensity to give up pressure. Cincinnati will obviously have to focus in on shutting down Aaron Donald and Von Miller to keep Joe Burrow upright, so that could open the door for linebacker Leonard Floyd. The 29-year-old registered 12 sacks this season and sacked Tom Brady in Los Angeles’ win in Tampa in the Divisional Round. Floyd has played 108 snaps on defence over his past two games and led all Rams linebackers in snaps played by a wide margin in the regular season.
A week after coughing up seven sacks in Tennessee, Cincinnati’s offensive line allowed one sack but an eye-popping 16 total quarterback pressures against the Chiefs on Championship Sunday. The Bengals’ O-line has given up nine sacks and 24 hurries in three playoff games.
Pick: The Bengals’ offensive line has been struggling all season and now must deal with the vaunted Rams’ pass rush. I think there is too much value here, so take Leonard Floyd’s total of 0.5 sacks to go OVER at +120.
Wager to watch: K Evan McPherson total field goals made (Over 1.5 -165, Under 1.5 +115)
Cincinnati kicker Evan McPherson has been money this post-season. The rookie is a stellar 12-for-12 on field goals in three playoff games. The 22-year-old kicker has made and attempted four field goals in every game in the playoffs. He also loves kicking inside and is a perfect 4-for-4 on field goals in domed stadiums and has booted at least two field goals in nine of his last 10 games.
The Bengals have also been great in wrapping up the opening half. In the final two minutes of the first half this season, Cincinnati has outscored their opponents 80-49. That could lead to a McPherson field goal opportunity as we head into halftime. He’s also chasing history; the rookie needs two more field goals on Sunday to tie Adam Vinatieri’s post-season record of 14.
The Rams, meanwhile, were 12th overall in opponent red zone scoring percentage (touchdown only) at 54.1 per cent this season. That means Los Angeles could keep the Bengals out of the end zone for much of the game which could lead to more opportunities for McPherson. Los Angeles also had the eighth-ranked scoring defence at home this season by giving up just 19.4 points per game.
Pick: I know this is the chalkiest of chalky picks, but how can’t you ride the hot leg of Evan McPherson? The confidence that Bengals coach Zac Taylor has in his rookie kicker combined with a chance to make history tells me you got to lay the juice and take McPherson’s total field goals made of 1.5 to go OVER at -165.
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