Are you hungry for some football? Watching Rob Gronkowski and Amari Cooper (among others) light up the score board in Tampa Bay in Thursday’s season opener was the perfect appetizer, and now we’re ready for Sunday’s main course.
As we navigate the season ahead, we’re previewing the action every weekend with some key starts and cautionary sits on the fantasy football front.
Our weekly picks have been made with 0.5 PPR leagues in mind, with standard rosters of one quarterback, two running backs, two wide receivers, one tight end, and one RB/WR/TE FLEX spot.
You certainly don’t need us telling you to start Patrick Mahomes or Christian McCaffrey each week, but we’ll parse out some value for you around the league ahead of each weekend’s slate of games as we dig into an exciting 2021 campaign.
QUARTERBACKS
QB Start: Kirk Cousins, Vikings (@ Bengals)
Is this the sexiest pick I could make to start off this article? Probably not. But let’s face it – the floor for Cousins is relatively safe, and he gets the boost on a matchup-by-matchup basis, such as this one against the Bengals. We already know that Cincinnati has ruled out top cornerback Trae Waynes with a nagging hamstring injury, so that opens the door for good ol’ Captain Kirk to throw the ball a little more. Justin Jefferson will certainly stand to benefit, as will Adam Thielen and Dalvin Cook. It’s all coming up Kirk (at least for Week 1, that is).
QB Start: Jalen Hurts, Eagles (@ Falcons)
It’s not entirely certain if the Eagles are committed to Jalen Hurts long-term, but if there was ever a good time for him to prove he’s worthy of the QB1 spot, it’s this juicy matchup against the Falcons’ defence. When attacked through the air last season, Atlanta gave up a league-high 4,697 yards, plus 34 passing touchdowns. Sure, they revamped things a little in the back end of the defensive back rotation, but it’s nothing a dynamic athlete like Hurts can’t handle for Week 1.
QB Sit: Tua Tagovailoa, Dolphins (@ Patriots)
It’s entirely possible that Tua is going to be a very good fantasy sleeper this season – he is surrounded by tons of talent on both sides of the ball, can run very well, and has the trust of the coaching staff. However, the Patriots present somewhat of an issue for the second-year QB. Even in a relatively lost 2020 season, New England still gave up the sixth-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks – and that was without stalwart Dont’a Hightower, and before adding former Raven Matthew Judon in free agency. Tua will be a very good starter in certain matchups the rest of the season, but fade him for this week’s AFC East grudge match.
QB Sit: Justin Herbert, Chargers (@ WFT)
Look, we all know what Herbert is capable of. He came in hot under less-than-ideal circumstances last season and still threw for 4,336 yards and 31 TDs with just 10 interceptions as a rookie. However, the 2021 edition of the Chargers is a little different, and it’s not clear just yet how Herbert will adjust to both a new head coach and a new offensive coordinator for the first time in a live-game situation (are we really going to count training camp practices with other teams?). Plus, Washington’s defence, headed by Chase Young, Montez Sweat, Jonathan Allen, and Daron Payne, looks to be one of the league’s best. I love me some Herbert, but… just not this week.
RUNNING BACKS
RB Start: Miles Sanders, Eagles (@ Falcons)
One of the most frustrating things about owning Sanders last season was watching the coaching staff run him straight into a wall of blockers down after down instead of trying to get him the ball in space. Once the QB switch was made to Hurts in Week 14, Sanders scored 25.6, 9.0, and 14.4 points to close out the season (compared to the string of three sub-6.2 games he had immediately prior). It may be a relatively small sample size, but if Hurts is the tide that raises all fantasy boats in Philadelphia, a pass-catching running back like Sanders could really be rewarded.
RB Start: Trey Sermon, 49ers (@ Lions)
We know 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan loves to run the ball, and that will always give value to guys like Raheem Mostert, as long as he stays healthy. But with Jimmy Garoppolo named starting QB (while Trey Lance breathes down his neck on the bench), there’s a real possibility Shanahan will want to minimize the number of times he has to throw the ball. Enter Sermon, a massive back with shocking agility for a guy his size. Going up against a terrible Lions defence that gave up 130-plus yards per game on the ground to go with 27 rushing TDs in 2020, both Mostert and Sermon could feast in this one.
RB Sit: All Jets RBs (@ Panthers)
This might be a cop-out, but for now let’s pump the brakes on the Michael Carter hype until we see how things shakes out on this rebuilding roster. I have no doubt that going forward – maybe even as soon as this season – he’ll be the RB to own in East Rutherford. The only issue is that right now, he has to compete with Tevin Coleman and Ty Johnson for carries, and we don’t know how Jets head coach Robert Saleh (who hails from the Kyle Shanahan coaching tree) will allocate the distribution of carries early on – and that’s before we factor in Zach Wilson’s own wheels. Stay away until we know more.
RB Sit: Myles Gaskin, Dolphins (@ Patriots)
It’s funny trying to sort through coach-speak, isn’t it? Gaskin wasn’t the lead back in a few pre-season games, which raised eyebrows (including my own), and recently head coach Brian Flores said he believes Gaskin has three-down ability. He certainly was capable of that last year, but with the return of Salvon Ahmed, the addition of Malcom Brown, and a stingy Patriots defence on the schedule and let’s wait to see how this plays out before we throw Gaskin in there full-time.
WIDE RECEIVERS
WR Start: Brandin Cooks, Texans (vs. Jaguars)
I could probably boil this down to ‘well, someone has to catch the ball in this offence’ – and that would be the truth. There are not a lot of ‘immediate dividends’ guys on this Houston offence, so the game plan for Tyrod Taylor should be to get the ball to their best playmaker – and that’s Cooks. He’s tallied more than 1,000 receiving yards in five of his six seasons, and despite the general dysfunction that surrounds the Texans right now, a terrible defence and negative game-flow will probably lead to a very healthy target share for Cooks the entire year. Either that, or we never speak of this again.
WR Start: D.J. Chark, Jaguars (@ Texans)
On the other side of that Texans-Jaguars matchup, we have another team that has made some significant changes over the off-season — none bigger than the addition of one of the more heralded college signal-callers of the last several years in Trevor Lawrence. Despite nursing a broken finger, he is expected to play. He’s facing a Texans defence that just traded away its best cornerback in Bradley Roby a few days ago, meaning Chark should get weaker coverage than he otherwise would have. With the addition of Marvin Jones Jr., Houston (and other opponents) can’t devote all their coverage to just him. It may not be the most steady diet of passes coming his way with James Robinson running the ball, but we expect him to eat up most of that target share nonetheless.
WR Sit: Kenny Golladay, Giants (vs. Broncos)
I genuinely think Golladay is incredibly talented, and sometimes a change of scenery can do one good. However, a nagging hamstring injury prevented the receiver from getting much time with his new QB, Daniel Jones, during training camp and he could take a little while to ramp up. This, all without mentioning the negative matchup with the Broncos’ strong defence – let’s give it a few weeks before we rely on Golladay.
WR Sit: Odell Beckham Jr, Browns (@ Chiefs)
It feels strange to say this, but the guy we saw make highlight-reel grab after grab and score double-digit TDs in his first few seasons may be gone. Not only has Beckham suffered several significant injuries (a season-ending ACL tear last year being the latest), but he is on a Browns offence that is incredibly run-heavy and prefers to play that way. Add in guys like Jarvis Landry and potential breakout candidates like Donovan Peoples-Jones and Rashard Higgins, and there simply may not be enough opportunities for him to consistently produce this year beyond the odd spot start here and there.
TIGHT ENDS
TE Start: Adam Trautman, Saints (vs. Packers)
After leaving the field on a cart with an ankle injury in the preseason, Trautman looked destined to stay on fantasy waivers all season. But after he was left off the Saints’ injury report this past Wednesday, it looks like Trautman season is back on the menu. Okay, he may not be the most heralded player, but we know that newly anointed starter Jameis Winston loves to throw the ball to tight ends – the last time he was a full-time starter back in 2019 with Tampa Bay, TEs O.J. Howard and Cameron Brate combined for 108 targets, 70 catches, 770 yards, and five TDs. If Winston targets Trautman even a partial share of that (and it’s likely that Sean Payton will have the reins on him somewhat), he’ll end up as a TE1.
TE Start: Tyler Higbee, Rams (vs. Bears)
It’s easy to forget Higbee, if only because he has existed in a timeshare out in L.A. with Gerald Everett for a few seasons. Well, fret no more, as Everett is off to Seattle and Higbee gets the position (mostly) to himself. We know that his new QB, Matt Stafford, loves to throw the ball to the TE position (see: T.J. Hockenson), and even though Higbee is likely the third pass-catching option behind WRs Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp, he should see enough of a target share to bump him over other guys you might be considering. Plus, despite their scary reputation, the Bears were second-worst at defending the position last year. Start Higbee with confidence.
TE Sit: Mike Gesicki, Dolphins (@ Patriots)
Gesicki is another guy who, with the right matchup, will provide dividends over the course of the season. But this game against the Patriots isn’t it. New England brought back or added several long, athletic linebackers who can run with Gesicki, and this comes after already having ranked fifth-best defending against the tight end position last year.
TE Sit: Jared Cook, Chargers (@ WFT)
It is true that Cook is filling a position of need for the Chargers, as he slots into the void left by Hunter Henry’s departure for colder pastures in New England. But he’s also 34 years old, and saw a down-tick from 705 yards and nine TD catches in 2019 to 504 yards and seven TDs in 2020. It’s definitely possible that even a sliver of attention from Herbert will make Cook fantasy-relevant this season (and truthfully, it doesn’t take much to do so for TEs), but let’s wait until after he lines up against a tough Washington defence to test that theory.
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