Is this what parity really looks like?
As good as it may be for ‘real life’ football, with anyone able to win on any given Sunday, it sure hasn’t made for easy fantasy football victories -- or easy weekly advice columns, for that matter!
As the timeless adage goes, ‘start your studs’ – meaning, start your top picks, the guys you’ve invested the draft capital into. Well, with the exception of Jonathan Taylor, Travis Kelce and Najee Harris, virtually every first- or second-round fantasy pick has either missed time with injury or has underperformed thanks to other factors.
Even some of the early-season darlings have fallen off the map. Remember Chargers wide receiver Mike Williams? From Weeks 1 to 5, Williams was the second-best wide receiver in all of fantasy football. He's now ranked 80th. D.J. Moore has seen a similar drop, considered the ninth-best wide receiver through the first five weeks and the 38th-best since. Yikes.
The top fantasy players on either side of Thursday night's Patriots blowout of the Falcons was New England's defence and kicker Nick Folk. The Patriots' D/ST is good enough that you can hold them for the rest of the season (including their Week 14 bye). If you’re in a position to do so, consider pairing them with another unit for the playoffs. Two that come to mind are the Titans and Eagles. Tennessee has been playing very well as of late, and will get five straight games against turnover-prone quarterbacks to end the season after their Week 13 bye. Philadelphia is in a similar situation as far as matchups go -- they will take on Washington and the Giants at home in Weeks 15 and 16 before heading to D.C. for a rematch with the Football Team in Week 17 (typically the last fantasy-relevant game of the year).
Our weekly picks have been made with 0.5 PPR leagues in mind, with standard rosters of one quarterback, two running backs, two wide receivers, one tight end, and one RB/WR/TE FLEX spot.
QUARTERBACKS
QB Start: Ryan Tannehill, Titans (vs. Texans)
These are the kinds of high-floor games we all look ahead to every season -- doubly so, now that the playoffs are less than a month away in most fantasy leagues. Tannehill has been up and down this season (who hasn’t?) but after a few rough matchups against the Rams and Saints, he now gets a Texans defence that's given up the ninth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks on the year. A lot of his value has been buoyed by his legs, and with no Derrick Henry or Julio Jones, he’s going to have to carry this offence for a few more weeks if the Titans are to keep winning.
QB Start: Tua Tagovailoa, Dolphins (@ Jets)
The last time I scheduled some Tua Time for a start, he ended up sidelined by injury in what was a plum matchup. Barring a last-minute setback, he will play this weekend – and thank goodness for that. He'll face a Jets defence that has given up an average of 43.75 points -- actual touchdowns, not fantasy points -- over the last four games.
Another QB start to consider: Joe Burrow, Bengals (@ Raiders)
QB Sit: Trevor Lawrence, Jaguars (vs. 49ers)
It’s been a brutal stretch for the No. 1 overall draft pick: Over the past two weeks combined, Lawrence has thrown 61 passes resulting in just 280 yards and zero touchdowns. He has just one score since Week 8. Unfortunately, things don’t get much easier, as he now suits up opposite a 49ers secondary that allows 208.7 passing yards per game. It’s probably safe to keep him on the bench for now, but fear not -- a more enticing streaming matchup in Week 12 versus the Falcons awaits.
QB Sit: Taylor Heinicke, Washington (@ Panthers)
Dating back to Week 5, Heinicke has had just two games with more than 15 fantasy points, one of which was last week's massive upset of Tom Brady and the Buccaneers. He has thrown one touchdown in four straight games, which seems like a positive, but he also has a propensity for ugly turnovers. Some value will always exist, considering he likes to take off and run, but against a Carolina defence that gives up the third-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks, you can probably find a higher floor elsewhere.
WIDE RECEIVERS
WR Start: Tee Higgins, Bengals (@ Raiders)
Since Week 5, Higgins has seen no fewer than six targets per game -- a large piece of the target share on an offence that likes to throw the ball. After back-to-back outings of 75 receiving yards or more, Higgins -- who has really put a dent in teammate Tyler Boyd's fantasy value -- will now take on a Raiders defence that is 17th in pass DVOA after getting absolutely shredded by Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs last Sunday. Joe Burrow and the Bengals will come out firing after two consecutive losses heading into their bye week, so be sure to plug Higgins in there.
WR Start: Jaylen Waddle, Dolphins (@ Jets)
Waddle’s value seems to be intrinsically tied to that of Tagovailoa. The two of them (or, ahem, 'the Tua them') have a chemistry that a lot of QB-WR duos aspire to. While mounting injuries to the Dolphins as a whole have interfered with this at times, Waddle has still tallied double-digit targets in three of the last five weeks, which is very encouraging. Last week’s outing against the Ravens might have been even bigger, as he drew a defensive pass interference call in the end zone that set up a touchdown from the one-yard line. Targets aren’t exactly going to many other receivers in this offence, so stick Waddle in your lineup against the hapless Jets.
Another WR start to consider: Darnell Mooney, Bears (vs. Ravens)
WR Sit: Bryan Edwards, Raiders (vs. Bengals)
I feel like Edwards has been the pick for a breakout both this season and last, and while 2021 has brought better results, he’s still been wildly inconsistent. He’s on the field for almost every single snap, and yet still rarely sees more than four targets a game. Edwards just doesn’t get enough of Carr’s attention right now for him to thrive.
WR Sit: Cole Beasley, Bills (vs. Colts)
For someone who was likely available on waivers at some point this year, Beasley has been pretty reliable. But with Dawson Knox back in this offence, Devin Singletary being worked in a bit more, and Gabriel Davis still floating around, it’s difficult to say whether that reliability will continue. Heck, the Bills beat the Jets by four touchdowns last week and Beasley still finished the day with just two catches for 15 scoreless yards. Unless something changes, it's best to keep Beasley on the bench for now.
RUNNING BACKS
RB Start: Josh Jacobs, Raiders (vs. Bengals)
Once more with feeling! I know I put him in the start column last week only for him to end up with a disappointing stat-line, but the simple truth is that the Chiefs ran away with that game from the get-go and thus forced the Raiders to abandon the run early. Even in a blowout, Jacobs still got 12 of 20 total backfield touches, and has still been very involved as a pass-catcher with five targets as well (compared to Kenyan Drake’s two). He now gets a Bengals defence that gives up the sixth-most fantasy points to running backs. Expect this game to be a closer one, which means he’ll be used to help out Derek Carr more often.
RB Start: A.J. Dillon, Packers (@ Vikings)
It’s probably a no-brainer, but whether or not you are an Aaron Jones owner, Dillon needs to be in your starting lineup. Unlike other situations around the NFL (see: Tennessee, Denver) Green Bay seems to be comfortable giving all the work to their RB2 in the wake of their No. 1 rusher going down. By the end of the Sunday's win over Seattle, Dillon had 23 total touches (21 on the ground). That workhorse production should continue against a Vikings defence that gives up an average of 4.7 yards per carry and 130.6 rushing yards per game.
Another RB start to consider: Devonta Freeman, Ravens (@ Bears)
RB Sit: Devin Singletary, Bills (vs. Colts)
In Buffalo's blowout win over the Jets, Singletary finally cracked double-digit fantasy points for the just the second time all year – and he needed a garbage-time touchdown to get there. The Bills' running game is just too volatile to trust on a week-to-week basis. Factor in Matt Breida, who nabbed two touchdowns of his own last week, and you've got a situation it's best to steer clear from for the time being.
RB Sit: Boston Scott/Jordan Howard, Eagles (vs. Saints)
I am loathe to add pretty much any Eagles running back to this list after the Kenneth Gainwell debacle (I may never get over it!) but with Miles Sanders expected to return this week, the muddied waters get even murkier. The truth is, nobody knows what the Eagles are going to do with Sanders back in the mix – they could continue this dreadful committee approach or they could feature any one of them. Or maybe they cease to run the ball altogether and Jalen Hurts himself will be the primary ball carrier. Who knows! Until we get even a shred of clarity, keep them on your bench – for your sanity as well as my own.
TIGHT ENDS
TE Start: Mike Gesicki, Dolphins (@ Jets)
Gesicki turned in a goose egg against the Ravens with many of his seven targets wildly out of reach. While it can’t get much worse (negative points are a thing, however unlikely), at least Gesicki gets a chance to rebound against the Jets. Considering Gesicki is one of two pass-catchers on Miami's offence that sees a consistent target share, he can be started this week.
TE Start: Dawson Knox, Bills (vs. Colts)
In his first game back off the short-term injured reserve, Knox saw just one target, which he reeled in on the third play of the game. (A second target in the end zone was wiped away thanks to a Jets penalty.) Bills quarterback Josh Allen was driving the ball downfield all afternoon against New York with Stefon Diggs (finally) being the primary beneficiary, but let’s chalk that one up to him being worked back into the game plan. Against the Colts, a team giving up the sixth-most fantasy points to tight ends, we can expect a better result for Knox.
Another TE start to consider: Pat Freiermuth, Steelers (@ Chargers)
TE Sit: Jared Cook, Chargers (vs. Steelers)
Generally speaking, if I was forced to start a Chargers tight end it would probably be Jared Cook over Donald Parham, but that’s not exactly saying much after Cook caught just one of only three targets for ten yards last week. He’s still a viable streaming option most weeks, but against the pretty stingy Steelers defence, I’d say opt for someone else this week.
TE Sit: Austin Hooper/David Njoku, Browns (vs. Lions)
If you streamed Austin Hooper last week for his ten-point, touchdown-inclusive effort against New England, you have my sincerest congratulations -- that required some real moxie, considering the state of the Browns' pass-catchers. Going forward, as Baker Mayfield deals with shoulder, knee, and foot injuries, it’s probably best to fade the whole tight end group. Let’s toss in QB and WR, too. y
You know what? Unless you’re in a points-per-punt league, stay away from any Brown who is not a running back; it’s probably for the best.
