It’s finally arrived, everyone: the final week of the fantasy football regular season is here.
It seems like it was just yesterday we were debating whether or not Jonathan Taylor was worth a first-round pick, or if Robert Woods should be taken above Cooper Kupp – if you did manage to walk away from your draft with Taylor or Kupp (or both), I’m guessing you’re preparing for a deep playoff run and not worrying about a last-place punishment.
With the Colts, Dolphins, Patriots, and Eagles on their bye weeks to wrap up the year, it seems that our start/sits this week will be for owners looking to replace players such as Taylor, Tua Tagovailoa, Jaylen Waddle, Damien Harris, Jalen Hurts, and Dallas Goedert. If you’re wondering whether or not you should roster Gardiner Minshew through the bye week after a terrific Week 13 performance, just know that he’s probably getting relegated to backup status since Hurts will have had an extra seven days to heal up that ankle.
By the way, if you’re ever curious whether players actually pay attention to what the average person thinks when it comes to fantasy sports, look no further than Broncos running back Melvin Gordon:
As someone who has been on the ‘Javonte Williams Top-10 RB in 2022’ train since he was taken in the second round this past April, I admit I’d like to see Melvin Gordon move on next year…but it’s hard to deny the impact of this Denver running game in real life. All in all, Denver might be the most tantalizing fantasy offence next year – depending on the quarter, of course.
QUARTERBACKS
QB Start – Taysom Hill, Saints (@ Jets)
Now boarding: the Taysom Hill hype-train is leaving the station! The destination, you ask? The hapless Jets defence, which has simply not gotten it done this season. The mallet finger injury that Hill suffered last week seems to be fine, as he has practiced in full all week, so no real concerns about him missing Sunday’s game. Make no mistake: there will be some truly ugly throws from Hill tomorrow, ones that make you slap the table in disgust. The real boost here is what he brings with his feet, after rushing for 101 yards on 11 carries against Dallas last week.
QB Start – Cam Newton, Panthers (vs. Falcons)
Since we’re so close to the beginning of the playoffs, I’d estimate most people who read this column are always looking for potential upside. We all know who we should start, so the question becomes ‘who brings the highest ceiling?’ Even though Newton got benched last week, the fact is that against a terrible Falcons defence, he can bring a decent enough rushing output via his legs to produce QB1 numbers – if he can remain the team’s starter throughout the entire game. If you need the high ceiling this week, it’s hard to not start Newton.
Another QB start to consider: Taylor Heinicke, WFT (vs. Cowboys)
QB Sit – Joe Burrow, Bengals (vs. 49ers)
I think this might be a one-week stay for Burrow on the sit side of the column, and it mostly has to do with that pinky finger on his throwing hand. By all accounts, he has thrown often enough this past week without any tape or a glove, so he should still get the start – it’s just that he’s more likely to return lower-end QB1 numbers, so if you have a higher upside option, then take that until Week 15.
QB Sit – Jared Goff, Lions (@ Broncos)
I’m only including Goff on this list after his 23.90-point performance last week that earned the Lions their first win of the regular season – some might think that better days are ahead, which is somewhat understandable. Despite the win, and despite offensive coordinator Anthony Lynn saying Goff will take more deep shots over the last five weeks of the year, a matchup vs. the Broncos (fifth-fewest fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks allowed) is decidedly not what the doctor ordered. Weeks 16 and 17 do bring games vs. the Falcons and Seahawks, however, so if you’re feeling dangerous…
WIDE RECEIVERS
WR Start – Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Packers (vs. Bears)
Since ‘upside’ is the flavour of the week as we all try and secure a playoff spot, I’m going with a risky play in Valdes-Scantling. The reason it can be considered risky is simply because he’s the team’s deep-ball artist – he runs the majority of his routes on long-developing plays down field. Despite that, he still has 19 targets over the last two games, and now gets a Bears defence that has allowed 34 receptions of 20 or more yards, 7.7 yards per pass attempt, and 20 passing touchdowns to boot. With Aaron Rodgers slinging the ball at will in this offence, someone other than Davante Adams has to score points, and MVS could be the play.
WR Start – Julio Jones, Titans (vs. Jaguars)
Already designated as eligible for return off the short-term injured reserve, Julio Jones is another high-risk play – namely because he hasn’t played since Week 9, and you wonder about the risk of re-injury as well. However, with the complete lack of quality wideouts right now in Tennessee (AJ Brown remains on the short-term IR as well), the Titans may have no choice but to play him. Now for the good news: the Jaguars allow 22.2 fantasy points per game to wide receivers, the eighth-highest mark in the league through their 12 games played. If you’re making a toss-up decision at the end of the roster, the former top fantasy wideout isn’t a bad play.
Another WR start to consider: Russell Gage, Falcons (@ Panthers)
WR Sit – Michael Gallup, Cowboys (@ WFT)
In the absence of one or both of CeeDee Lamb and Amari Cooper, Gallup has produced quite nicely – despite the general struggles of quarterback Dak Prescott. Lamb and Cooper are back now, which means that even against a struggling Washington secondary, Gallup becomes more boom-or-bust. It’s just too volatile right now, especially when you add in guys like Dalton Schultz and the running backs.
WR Sit – Rashod Bateman, Ravens (@ Browns)
My love for Bateman is well-documented in this space, so it pains me to say this, but after Sammy Watkins and Devin Duvernay had more catches and yardage than the rookie last week – it’s time to staple him to the bench. He hasn’t cracked double-digits more than once, and now gets a Browns secondary that allows the tenth-fewest points to wide receivers this season. With the general struggles of the Ravens offence outside of Mark Andrews (and even he has had some big drops), you might want to stay away in this one.
RUNNING BACKS
RB Start – Josh Jacobs, Raiders (@ Chiefs)
I feel like we’ve revisited Jacobs almost every single week since he got healthy, and of course the one week we don’t he explodes for his best fantasy outing of the season last week vs. Washington. As such, listing him here might be a jinx against the poor guy, but as long as he’s playing like this – and backup Kenyan Drake is done for the season with a broken ankle – it’s going to be hard to keep him on the bench unless you’re stacked at RB. Just note: Jacobs snagged nine receptions, so if you’re playing in a standard league (read: non-PPR), he gets a downgrade in the week’s rankings.
RB Start – Chuba Hubbard, Panthers (vs. Falcons)
Here’s the truth about human beings: we’re creatures of habit. Take me, for instance: I see the Falcons defence, and I will always think ‘any opposing offensive player is probably a start in any given week’, and you’re probably the same way. With Christian McCaffrey done for the year, Hubbard slots in going forward as an every-week, volume-based RB2. Cam Newton’s presence certainly lowers the ceiling, but against the Falcons defensive unit (seventh-most fantasy points to running backs), the floor is definitely raised.
Another RB start to consider: Devonta Freeman, Ravens (@ Browns)
RB Sit – James Robinson, Jaguars (@ Titans)
Since he exploded onto the scene last year as an undrafted free agent, Robinson has been an integral part of this Jacksonville offence, even when the rest of the team has been stuck in mud for so much of the season. With the litany of lower-body injuries he’s suffered, however, he’s now being load managed in the days leading up to Sunday. After Trevor Lawrence lobbied for Robinson to get more touches, he’s sure to see more work, but against the Titans defence (fifth-fewest fantasy points allowed to running backs) that will likely sell out to stop the Jaguars’ best weapon, maybe consider benching him if possible.
RB Sit – Mike Davis, Falcons (@ Panthers)
Stop trying to make Mike Davis happen, Arthur Smith. It’s not going to happen. Okay, yes, we did see the best fantasy output of the year from Davis, but he did it on eight total touches – four carries for 32 yards and a touchdown, and four catches for 37 yards. It’s not sustainable, as Cordarrelle Patterson remains the top rushing option in this offence. Stay away.
TIGHT ENDS
TE Start – Dawson Knox, Bills (@ Buccaneers)
Had Patriots safety Adrian Phillips not knocked a touchdown pass out of Knox’s arms on that windy Monday night, this entry might be about a completely different player because Knox would be an every-week must start. As it stands, it’s still safe to say Knox has been worked into the offence as an integral part of the game plan and he clearly has the trust of Josh Allen where other players might not. He had six targets even in that windstorm vs. New England. In what will likely be a high-scoring game, you’re playing Knox vs. an injured Buccaneers secondary.
TE Start – Cole Kmet, Bears (@ Packers)
Over the last two weeks, despite some pretty uninspiring games from the Bears as a whole, Kmet has still managed to rack up 18 targets from Andy Dalton. Yes, Justin Fields is likely to get the start, but as we’ve seen before Fields suffered the rib injury, the connection he has with Kmet is one worth taking a chance on. At a thin position, it’s another upside play based on his target share.
Another TE start to consider: Noah Fant, Broncos (vs. Lions)
TE Sit – Tyler Higbee, Rams (@ Cardinals)
Higbee oddly continues to see elite usage in this offence, staying on the field for almost every single offensive snap – and yet, he has only cracked 50 receiving yards twice so far this season, and has only caught three touchdowns on the year. Against a lethal Cardinals defence – third-fewest fantasy points allowed to tight ends – it simply might be best to avoid all of the non-Cooper Kupp pass-catchers.
TE Sit – Zach Ertz, Cardinals (vs. Rams)
The biggest concern for Ertz right now isn’t actually his own health (limited in practice Thursday), more so the presence of his teammate DeAndre Hopkins. Almost all of Ertz’ massive totals on his new team came with Hopkins injured and spending time on the bench; with Murray once again zeroing in on his favourite wide receiver, Ertz will likely finish more in the TE2 conversation.
