If you’re reading this, then that can only mean one thing. You, dear reader, have made it to the promised land, as you do battle one last time for the ultimate prize: a fantasy championship!
Given that we’re at the end of the year, I’d like to offer one last major piece of advice: don’t get cute, not now. There will always be room for taking calculated risks in any given week, absolutely. However, if you’re thinking about benching Josh Allen or Patrick Mahomes for Trey Lance or Tyler Huntley… sure, it could pay off, but if it doesn’t, you’ll be shaking your head for years to come.
If you’re having trouble, just remember the immortal words of Shania Twain: dance with the one that brought you.
Frankly, that you’re here at all is a testament to your savvy in a season that has tested the patience of even the most veteran fantasy football managers -- sure, Lady Luck may have smiled upon you here and there, but given the sheer chaos we’ve all faced in our lives in 2021, I do sincerely wish you the best of luck to wrap up the season.
Now, if you’ll excuse me, I have to decide whether to start Boston Scott or Dare Ogunbowale as my RB2 in the title game. Happy New Year, and may all your players score touchdowns!
Our weekly picks have been made with 0.5 PPR leagues in mind, with standard rosters of one quarterback, two running backs, two wide receivers, one tight end, and one RB/WR/TE FLEX spot.
Quarterback
Start – Matthew Stafford, Rams (@ Ravens)
Look, I know Stafford threw three horrendous interceptions last week -- that might be off-putting (to say the least) to some. However, that was by far his worst performance of the season, and now gets the Ravens defence, an injury-ravaged unit that allows the second-most fantasy points to quarterbacks. They’ve got a handful of emergency reinforcements in the secondary, but there’s no chance they hold up to the onslaught of Cooper Kupp, Van Jefferson, and Odell Beckham Jr. Start Stafford with confidence.
Start – Jalen Hurts, Eagles (@ Washington)
When it comes to Hurts, we know that much of his fantasy value is buoyed by his rushing attempts. He only had two carries against the Giants last week, this is true, but it was a season-low by a wide margin (seven carries being the previous low). Even with the change, he still returned more than 16 fantasy points, and now takes on the Washington defence -- they allow the most fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks, and have allowed the most passing touchdowns in the NFL so far this year. Don’t be afraid to fire up Hurts along with a few of his pass-catchers in this one.
Other Starters – Taysom Hill, Saints (vs. Panthers)
Sit – Ryan Tannehill, Titans (vs. Dolphins)
Dating back to Week 11, Tannehill has somehow only cracked the 16-point barrier once. He has thrown six interceptions to just three touchdowns over that span and is now taking on the Miami defence, a unit that just dismantled the Saints on Monday night (seventh-fewest fantasy points allowed to QBs).
The Titans themselves are a hardy group, but fantasy-wise, maybe keep Tannehill on the bench to wrap up the year.
Sit – Tua Tagovailoa, Dolphins (@ Titans)
On the other side of this matchup, Tagovailoa has been quietly one of the more efficient quarterbacks from a real-life perspective, posting some eye-popping completion percentage numbers since returning from injury in Week 6. The unfortunate fantasy truth here is that despite those numbers, he just isn’t scoring a ton of points -- he’s only cracked 20 points twice all season. Maybe they’re being cautious with him, as he’s not running the ball a lot himself, but as long as this keeps up, it’s hard to argue that Tagovailoa should be someone you rely on beyond superflex/2QB leagues on championship weekend.
WIDE RECEIVER
Start – Brandin Cooks, Texans (@ 49ers)
If you’re a regular reader of this column, you know of my love for Cooks -- he’s been largely reliable all year, and Davis Mills looks for him early and often. Cooks is back off the COVID-19 list, and as such, immediately becomes Mills’ most reliable receiver, as he looks to post his third consecutive game of over 100 receiving yards. With the Texans showing some fight lately, and the 49ers giving up the ninth-most fantasy points to wide receivers this year, I think it’s time for a ‘Cooks-out’ (sorry) in Week 17.
Start – Christian Kirk, Cardinals (@ Cowboys)
Over the past three games, Kirk has somehow been targeted a whopping 27 times from Kyler Murray. That kind of volume is impossible to ignore, even as Murray looks at Zach Ertz and Chase Edmonds. They do admittedly have a tough matchup against the ferocious Dallas defence, but given the sheer volume Kirk is seeing, he’s a pretty great start in half or full PPR leagues.
Other Starters – Amon-Ra St. Brown, Lions (@ Seahawks)
Sit – Michael Pittman Jr., Colts (vs. Raiders)
As we know, COVID-19 is an ever-present issue for teams, and the Colts got hit this week, as Carson Wentz tested positive. With the new NFL protocols, there’s a chance he could play; if he doesn’t however, you’ll have to staple Pittman Jr. firmly to the bench. If Wentz does suit up, however, then you can slot him in as a WR2 -- monitor this situation heading into Sunday.
Sit – Marquise Brown, Ravens (vs. Rams)
At the time of writing, Brown missed some time once again due to an unspecified illness. If he tests positive for COVID-19, then your decision has unfortunately been made for you. If he does suit up on Sunday, however, he still may not be a great play -- he’s only topped 55 yards dating back to Week 9, and hasn’t scored a touchdown since Week 7. Add in his opponent in the Rams (eighth in pass DVOA, 15th-fewest fantasy points to wideouts), and maybe you stay away unless you’re in dire straits this week.
Running Back
Start – Jeff Wilson Jr. OR Eli Mitchell, 49ers (vs. Texans)
The Texans have such a terrible rush defence (fourth-most fantasy points to running backs) that if one of these guys gets the start, you have to get him in your lineup. Eli Mitchell, as we’ve seen, tends to operate as the workhorse when he plays -- but he has been limited in practice with the banged up knee all week long. If the 49ers decide to sit him, Wilson Jr. becomes a great start as well -- even if the mobile Trey Lance gets the start at quarterback.
Let’s put it this way: don’t expect a lot of passing yardage in this one.
Start – Ronald Jones, Buccaneers (@ Jets)
As we largely expected, the Buccaneers bounced back last week and absolutely dominated the Panthers -- and in the process, handed the ball off to Jones 20 of a possible 31 times. Against the Jets, a team that allows the most fantasy points to running backs this year, there’s no chance you sit him -- it’s as good a spot as it gets for a running back. Even if Tom Brady throws all over the Jets early on, there’s a great chance Jones just grinds out the rest of the game -- unless you have other top five options, there’s no way Jones should stay on the bench in Week 17.
Other Starters – Dare Ogunbowale, Jaguars (@ Patriots)
Sit – Rex Burkhead, Texans (@ 49ers)
I’m really just putting this here because some might be tempted to start Burkhead after his scintillating performance last week vs. the Chargers (149 yards and two touchdowns). Granted, he is likely to remain the lead back after toting the ball 71 times over the last five weeks, but the quality of opponent last week has to be taken into account, as Los Angeles was missing a boatload of players due to COVID-19 or injury. That won’t be the case vs. the 49ers -- at best you’re looking at an 8-10 point day, so I’d just thank him for the star turn (especially if he propelled you to a championship), and look elsewhere this week.
Sit – Saquon Barkley, Giants (@ Bears)
We’re a long way from Barkley being a top-three draft pick, aren’t we? It’s been an awful year for the Giants from top to bottom, and Barkley has been no different, as he has just looked sluggish overall since returning from injured reserve. Even against a middling Bears defence (15th-most fantasy points allowed to running backs), I’d stay away given the general state of the Giants offence.
One thing to note: if Barkley doesn’t suit up with that banged up ankle, I would start Devontae Booker, who has just looked more spry this year, so keep that in the back of your mind.
Tight End
Start – Gerald Everett, Seahawks (vs. Lions)
Here we go, everyone -- after doubting Everett literally all season long, he’s finally convinced me. He sees enough targets from Russell Wilson to put him in the TE1 conversation, he gets a terrible Lions defence (10th-most fantasy points allowed to tight ends), and at the time of writing is still available in 51 per cent of Yahoo leagues. It’s as plus a matchup as it gets, so fire up Everett if you can.
Start – Cole Kmet, Bears (vs. Giants)
Much like the last time we mentioned Kmet in this space, a large part of his appeal is the target share -- he has somehow seen at least five targets in five straight games. I know, I know -- Jimmy Graham somehow again vultured a touchdown (cue the Breaking Bad ‘he can’t keep getting away with it’ .gif), but against the beaten-down Giants defence, he’s a decent TE start outside the top five most common names.
Other Starters – Dawson Knox, Bills (vs. Falcons)
Sit – Brevin Jordan, Texans (@ 49ers)
Given the state of the Texans’ season, Jordan has actually been a pleasant surprise after being listed as a healthy scratch for the first few weeks of the year. However, even after posting a career-high 56 yards last week, he still turned in just 7.6 points in half-PPR, and Brandin Cooks now returns to the lineup. Given that the 49ers cover the tight end position really well (sixth-fewest points to TEs), I’d suggest keeping the feel-good story on the bench (or waivers, if you feel there’s someone better to roster) to wrap up the fantasy season.
Sit – Noah Fant, Broncos (@ Chargers)
Generally speaking, I’ve enjoyed watching Fant play -- he’s a talented guy, which is why it’s unfortunate he just doesn’t get used a whole ton in the Denver offence. It’s a crowded pass-catching room right now, as he fights for target share alongside Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton and Tim Patrick -- and that’s before we get to the running game. So despite the generous matchup with the Chargers, I’d feel more comfortable playing a safer option on championship weekend.
