Heading into the Wild Card round of the NFL playoffs, the Seattle Seahawks have the best Super Bowl odds at +375.
With the No. 1 seed in the NFC, they’re off this week and will play the lowest-seeded team to win this weekend in the conference.
There are so many playoff storylines to follow this weekend: The Chicago Bears and Jacksonville Jaguars with first-year head coaches, the New England Patriots’ rebirth, the potential final run for the Pittsburgh Steelers and quarterback Aaron Rodgers, and so much more.
Below, you’ll find my predictions for all six games this weekend.
Carolina Panthers vs. Los Angeles Rams
I know the Panthers are entering the playoffs as an 8-9 team, but 10 points is far too many.
These teams played in Week 13, and the Panthers won 31-28. Of course, some circumstances contributed to that, such as inclement weather, a pass from Rams QB Matthew Stafford that was tipped at the line and intercepted, and a pick-six.
The Panthers have a distinct WR height advantage, with Jalen Coker and Tetairoa McMillan who tower over the Rams' defensive backs.
The game plan for the Panthers should be to throw the ball in their direction when either is in a one-on-one matchup and to win the 50/50 matchup.
I predict the Rams win, but the Panthers cover the spread.
PREDICTION: Panthers +10 (-110)
Chicago Bears vs. Green Bay Packers
While the Bears and Packers split the season series, Green Bay is the better team and looked like it in both matchups.
In the first game, the Packers won 28-21 on the back of three passing touchdowns by QB Jordan Love.
In the second, the Bears won 22-16 in overtime, but Love got hurt. While Malik Willis played well, Chicago won on an incredible play to D.J. Moore in overtime.
I worry about the Bears' inability to generate pressure. They’re 30th in the NFL in pressures with 187.
When Love is kept clean in the pocket and isn’t under duress, he’s borderline unstoppable, completing 79.6 per cent of his passes for 2,611 yards, 23 touchdowns, and two interceptions.
That said, the Packers will have to live without Micah Parsons and will need to find ways to get to Bears QB Caleb Williams often.
In the end, I predict a Packers victory, so I’ll take them +1.
PREDICTION: Packers +1 (-115)
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Buffalo Bills
The Bills are favoured in this game, and while I understand they have QB Josh Allen, who could single-handedly will the team to victory, this is going to be a tough matchup.
The Bills average 159.6 rushing yards and 32.2 rushing attempts per game, both of which lead the NFL. They’re also second in run play percentage at 50.5 per cent (second).
The problem is the Jaguars allow a league-low 85.6 rushing yards per game. Against running backs specifically, they’re held to 17.5 carries for 68 yards (3.87 yards per carry) per game.
With that, coupled with the Jaguars being one of the hottest teams in the NFL right now, winning eight in a row, I’ll take the points at home.
PREDICTION: Jaguars +1.5 (-110)
Philadelphia Eagles vs. San Francisco 49ers
This is a game I’ve gone back and forth on.
The Eagles have the better defence, no question about it. They allow 189.8 passing yards (eighth) and 124.4 rushing yards (22nd) per game. They’re also sixth in the NFL in pressures with 251.
Meanwhile, the 49ers are 28th in pressures (193), and allow 107.8 rushing yards (11th) and 232.4 passing yards per game (25th).
Here’s the problem: I don’t trust this Eagles offence. They’re 19th in points per game at 22.3.
Also, the 49ers primarily play Cover-3, and Eagles QB Jalen Hurts has only three passing touchdowns and two interceptions all season against that scheme.
As for the 49ers' offence, I trust head coach Kyle Shanahan. If the Eagles play man coverage against QB Brock Purdy, he’s thrown six touchdowns and just one interception against that all season.
The key for the 49ers will be protecting Purdy. If they can do that, they’ll fight through the Eagles’ defence and potentially win.
Either way, I’ll take the points.
PREDICTION: 49ers +4.5 (-118)
New England Patriots vs. Los Angeles Chargers
I know a big topic of discussion surrounding the Patriots and QB Drake Maye right now is that they’ve played the easiest schedule this season, and while that may be true, Maye should be able to do some damage through the air against the talented Chargers.
The Chargers primarily play Cover-3 and Cover-4, and again, in those coverages, Maye has been excellent, completing 77.2 per cent of his passes on 269 dropbacks for 2,199 yards, 9.6 yards per attempt, nine touchdowns, and two interceptions.
The Patriots have four players with 20 catches or more against these coverages, including Stefon Diggs, TreVeyon Henderson, Kayshon Boutte, and a former Charger, Hunter Henry.
I predict the Patriots win and cover.
PREDICTION: Patriots -3.5 (-115)
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Houston Texans
On paper, this is a game that the Texans should easily win. After all, they have a phenomenal defence, and they’re going up against a 42-year-old Aaron Rodgers.
However, I’m not so sure.
Opposing QBs have dropped back to pass 617 times against them this season. Of those, the top three coverages they play are Cover-3 (206 dropbacks), Cover-4 (127 dropbacks), and Cover-1 (121 dropbacks).
Should the Texans play man coverage against Rodgers, that could be a mistake, as he’s thrown six touchdowns and no interceptions when facing it.
Against all of those coverages combined, he’s completed 64.9 per cent of his passes for 1,882 yards, 10 touchdowns, and three interceptions.
Also, Rodgers’ ability to get the ball out quickly may be tough on the Texans’ defence. His average time to throw is 2.56 seconds, and when the Texans face QBs who get the ball out in 2.56 seconds or less, they allow a completion percentage of 68.8 per cent, 1,755 yards, 12 touchdowns, and four interceptions.
I’m taking the Steelers plus the points at home and D.K. Metcalf back in the lineup.
PREDICTION: Steelers +3.5 (-118)
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