NFL Week 12 betting preview: QB carousels, bonus football in spotlight

Betting insider Jason La Confora joins Kevin Michie to give a betting preview of the American Thanksgiving NFL games, giving his take on why the Cowboys are laying too many points against the Giants and why the Vikings and Patriots should go under.

Our friends to the south are celebrating their Thanksgiving this week, which means bonus football for all fans across the globe.

With no teams having a Week 12 bye we’ve got a full 16-game slate beginning with a triple-header on Thursday with several matchups this week featuring a switch at quarterback.

Week 11 saw a bit of a reversal of trends with favourites against the spread (ATS) and overs both going 8-6. Can we expect more high-scoring games this week, or will it revert back to unders and underdogs ruling the roost?

Here’s a look at the full Week 12 board with betting lines, totals, tidbits, and picks.


Buffalo Bills (-9.5) at Detroit Lions (+9.5) | Over/Under: 54.5
New York Giants (+10.0) at Dallas Cowboys (-10.0) | Over/Under: 45.5
New England Patriots (+2.5) at Minnesota Vikings (-2.5) | Over/Under: 42.5

Bills-Lions has the week’s high total at 54.5. Buffalo, Detroit and Kansas City are the only teams so far this season that have five games in which they’ve scored 30 or more points. Detroit is 7-3 on overs this season, while Buffalo is a 3-7 overs team.

The Cowboys have covered the spread in nine of their past 11 encounters with the division rival Giants. Dak Prescott has won nine consecutive starts against the G-men and Dallas has scored at least 35 points in five of Prescott’s past six starts against them dating back to 2018. Dallas has some key defenders on the injury report this week.

Vikings QB Kirk Cousins is 0-2 lifetime against the Patriots, 3-5 overall when playing on Thursdays, and 10-18 in his career in late games.

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Denver Broncos (-2.5) at Carolina Panthers (+2.5) | Over/Under: 36.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3.5) at Cleveland Browns (+3.5) | Over/Under: 42.5
Baltimore Ravens (-4.0) at Jacksonville Jaguars (+4.0) | Over/Under: 43.5
Houston Texans (+13.5) at Miami Dolphins (-13.5) | Over/Under: 46.5
Chicago Bears (+6.0) at New York Jets (-6.0) | Over/Under: 38.5
Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5) at Tennessee Titans (+2.5) | Over/Under: 42.5
Atlanta Falcons (+4.0) at Washington Commanders (-4.0) | Over/Under: 41.5
Los Angeles Chargers (-4.0) at Arizona Cardinals (+4.0) | Over/Under: 48.5
Las Vegas Raiders (+3.5) at Seattle Seahawks (-3.5) | Over/Under: 47.5
Los Angeles Rams (+15.5) at Kansas City Chiefs (-15.5) | Over/Under: 43.5
New Orleans Saints (+9.5) at San Francisco 49ers (-9.5) | Over/Under: 42.5
Green Bay Packers (+6.5) at Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5) | Over/Under: 46.5
Pittsburgh Steelers (+2.5) at Indianapolis Colts (-2.5) | Over/Under: 39.5

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Sam Darnold has been named Carolina’s starter against Denver in the game with the lowest total of the week. Darnold is 17-33 in his career, went 4-7 with the Panthers in 2021 and hasn’t played since last season’s regular-season finale. Denver is an NFL-best 9-1 on unders this season; the Panthers are 7-4 on unders this year.

The Browns host the Bucs in the team’s final game before Deshaun Watson’s suspension ends. Tom Brady is 7-1 in his career when playing the Browns. Cleveland is 4-6 ATS; Tampa Bay is 3-6-1 ATS this season.

Jacksonville has covered the spread in five of their past six meetings against Baltimore. The Jags are spotting the Ravens more than a field goal, but the Ravens are 3-1 ATS when road favourites this season.

Miami is coming off a bye and are two-score favourites over Houston. The chalk has covered in each of the past five times the Dolphins and Texans have met. Also, the home team is on a 4-0 ATS streak. Miami is 2-1 ATS as a home favourite and 4-1 straight up at home this season.

Zach Wilson, despite his 5-2 record this season, will ride the bench at home against the Bears. This means Mike White is the Jets starter with Joe Flacco the backup. Despite the QB controversy, the Jets remain the favourites over a Bears team likely without Justin Fields who’s dealing with an injured shoulder. This game has seen the most line fluctuation this week.

The Titans (8-2 ATS) and Bengals (7-3 ATS) are two of the best ATS teams in the NFL. Cincy, who eliminated Tennessee from the playoffs last season, ranks first in red zone touchdown scoring rate and the Titans are second in that category.

The Commanders are on a 5-0-1 streak ATS and could get Chase Young back this week at home, however the road team has covered in five straight meetings between Washington and Atlanta.

Kyler Murray is expected to return to behind centre for Arizona this week after missing the past two games nursing a hamstring injury. Chargers overs are on a 9-2 streak following a loss.

The Raiders, despite being just 3-7 overall, are 4-1 ATS this year when playing teams with a winning record. The 6-4 Seahawks had a four-game winning streak snapped last week in Germany against the Bucs.

The Chiefs and Rams haven’t met since their high-scoring classic four years ago – a back-and-forth thriller the Rams won 54-51. Kansas City ranks first points per game (30.0) and in yards per game (429.3) this season, while the Rams rank 29th (16.8) in scoring and 30th in yards (288.0).

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The Saints and 49ers have alternated wins and losses against one another over the past half dozen meetings dating back to 2012 with New Orleans winning their most recent encounter in 2020. New Orleans is 0-2 ATS as a road underdog this year.

Philly has been favoured in all 10 of their matchups and is 5-5 ATS; Green Bay is 3-1 ATS as a road dog.

The Colts and Steelers are a combined 15-6 on unders this season. Pittsburgh has covered five of their past six meetings versus Indianapolis but the home team has covered in six of the past seven in this matchup, so something’s gotta give.


(Each week throughout the regular season I’ll be sharing some picks for the Sunday/Monday slate and will track my record, so you can follow or fade responsibly all season long. 2022 overall record to date: 78-94-4)

Favourites ATS (17-20-1): Broncos -2.5, Colts -2.5, Buccaneers -3.5, Seahawks -3.5, Chargers -4.0, Eagles -6.5, Dolphins -13.5

Underdogs ATS (24-19-3): Patriots +2.5, Titans +2.5, Jaguars +4.0

Overs (6-18): LAC/ARI 48.5, NO/SF 42.5, WAS/ATL 41.5

Unders (18-23): BUF/DET 54.5, LV/SEA 47.5, CHI/NYJ 38.5

Moneyline dogs (14-16): Patriots, Titans

(Listed odds above via Covers as of Wednesday evening and subject to change)

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