Week 7 NFL panel picks: Will Henry, Titans run all over Chiefs?

Drew Livingstone and Cam Stewart handicap an intriguing Week 7 tilt between the KC Chiefs and Tennessee Titans, but Tommy tiebreaker is definitely needed in order to pick this one.

Throughout the 2021 season, a panel of Sportsnet’s NFL contributors will preview each week’s slate of games from a gambling perspective. Staff writer/host Donnovan Bennett, staff writers Emily Sadler and Mike Johnston, plus fantasy writers Andy McNamara and Matt Marchese will pick one FAVOURITE, one UNDERDOG, one OVER, one UNDER, including their personal LOCK, as they attempt to beat the odds

The Arizona Cardinals still have the best record in the NFL at the moment, but they don’t boast the best against the spread record.

An improbable OT win and cover by the Cowboys against the Patriots last week moved Dallas to 6-0 ATS so far this season as they head into a bye week. Arizona and Green Bay are second-best with 5-1 ATS records. At the other end of the spectrum, the Jets and 49ers are both 1-4 ATS and coming off a bye, while the WFT is a league-worst 1-5 ATS.

Week 7 gets underway Thursday with the Denver Broncos visiting a Cleveland Browns team unable to dress a number of important starters. The line continues to move in Denver’s direction and oddsmakers are anticipating a low-scoring affair in which three Sportsnet.ca panel members are targeting the under.

The Buffalo Bills, Dallas Cowboys, Jacksonville Jaguars, Los Angeles Chargers, Minnesota Vikings and Pittsburgh Steelers are all on bye this week.

Here are the Week 7 picks.

Donnovan Bennett, staff writer/host
2021 record: 11-14-0
Last week: 1-3-0
Locks: 3-3-0

🏈 Saints at Seahawks OVER 43.5
🏈 Broncos at Browns UNDER 42.5
🏈 Dolphins (-2.5) vs. Falcons
🔒 Broncos (+3.5) at Browns

Baker Mayfield was sacked five times last week, has dislocated his left shoulder twice this season and his total QBR since Week 3 has been just 36, which ranks 27th in the NFL. Mayfield has been sacked 14 times in the last four games which is third most in the NFL. With the Browns QB hurt (Update: backup QB Case Keenum was named this week’s starter) and many of their other top offensive starters also injured, I’m not sure why Cleveland even opened as favourites over Denver.

Emily Sadler, staff writer
2021 record: 14-9-1
Last week: 3-1-0
Locks: 3-3-0

🏈 Ravens (-6) vs. Bengals
🏈 Titans (+5.5) vs. Chiefs
🏈 Chiefs at Titans OVER 56.5
🔒 Broncos at Browns UNDER 42.5

No Baker Mayfield, Nick Chubb or Kareem Hunt and uncertainty around the status of receivers like Jarvis Landry and Odell Beckham Jr., (to name a few) has me feeling pretty hopeless we’re gonna see many points pile up in Denver on Thursday night. Bring on this defensive showdown.

Mike Johnston, staff writer
2021 record: 9-15-0
Last week: 1-3-0
Locks: 1-5-0

🏈 Falcons at Dolphins OVER 47.5
🏈 Panthers at Giants UNDER 43
🏈 Panthers (-3) at Giants
🔒 Colts (+3.5) at 49ers

OK enough is enough. I’m down bad, folks. Haven’t been above .500 at any point this season; haven’t even had a winning week, but the Colts are my way out of this. Not only do they keep it close in San Fran, they’ll win outright. In fact, now is perhaps your last best chance to get a nice price on a Colts to win the AFC South future prop. If they beat the 49ers this week and the Titans lose to the Chiefs then Week 8’s Titans-Colts matchup will be for first place in the division and you won’t get such favourable odds.

Andy McNamara, analyst/fantasy sports writer
2021 record: 14-10-0
Last week: 4-0-0
Locks: 3-3-0

🏈 Football Team at Packers OVER 49
🏈 Broncos at Browns UNDER 42.5
🏈 Falcons (+2.5) at Dolphins
🔒 Panthers (-3) at Giants

I know the Panthers haven’t been the same since the Christian McCaffrey injury, but to be favoured by only three over the lowly Giants who are without their own star running back? New York put left tackle Andrew Thomas on IR Tuesday, and that will help a good Carolina defence shut down their undermanned opponent.

Matt Marchese, radio host/producer/fantasy football writer
2021 record: 8-16-0
Last week: 0-4-0
Locks: 1-5-0

🏈 Chiefs at Titans OVER 56.5
🏈 Football Team at Packers UNDER 49
🏈 Saints (-5) at Seahawks
🔒 Colts (+3.5) at 49ers

The Colts have played better football of late and part of the reason is the fact Carson Wentz is just playing better football. It looks like Jimmy Garoppolo is going to be under centre for the 49ers but that doesn’t change anything here as Indy’s defence is getting back to the same level we saw them at last year. The Colts are 3-0 against the spread in their last three games at San Francisco and I’ll take them as road dogs in this one.

Bonus stat: The Saints are 3-0 in their last three against the spread against Seattle and, yes, Geno Smith is still quarterbacking the Seahawks.

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