Some of the biggest mistakes you can make in fantasy hockey come in the first week or two.
It’s easy to overreact to one or two games from a player whether they’re good or bad. If you were racing out to grab Brock Boeser because he scored four times in his first game or were thinking of dropping Vladimir Tarasenko because he had a very quiet opening night, you could be making a rash decision you might regret.
I think it’s tough to evaluate the direction a player is trending until you see them in at least a handful of games and with a full lineup. Anything less than that and you’re just banking on an extremely small sample size to continue, which is very risky.
Exercising a little patience at this time of year is usually a good course of action.
1. After much wondering this offseason on what the Carolina Hurricanes would do with their three-headed goalie monster and no AHL affiliate, Pytor Kochetkov will start the season playing for the Tampa Bay Lightning’s AHL club. This is tricky to navigate because you can’t stash Kochetkov on IR if you drafted him, but you know at some point he’ll be back with a lot of value. Antti Raanta is only slightly more rostered than Kochetkov right now, so he would be a nice pickup given how things currently stand. If Raanta is healthy, he’s very effective and you’ll just have to be ready to pounce if Kochetkov gets called up.
2. John Klingberg is off to a solid start, with three assists that includes one with the man advantage. There is definitely going to be some defensive decencies with Klingberg, but his offensive talent is undeniable. An already potent Toronto Maple Leafs power play looks even quicker with Klingberg at the helm and he seems to be a bit more decisive than Morgan Rielly with the puck. On Nylander’s power play goal in particular against Montreal, Klingberg subtly moved to his right with the puck and brought the Canadiens defender with him, opening up a perfect lane to slide it back to Nylander for a one-timer. He seems very adept at walking the blue line with the puck and creating space for teammates. This bodes well for Klingberg holding off Rielly for the quarterback spot on power play one. Klingberg was a big buy-low candidate in drafts and so far so good if you were banking on a renaissance for the blueliner.
3. A ripple effect of Fraser Minten starting with the Toronto Maple Leafs means William Nylander is heading back to John Tavares’ wing, at least for the time being. That’s great news for Nylander’s value, as centering a third line with the likes of Calle Jarnkork and Matthew Knies wouldn’t boost his production as much as Tavares can. We’ll see how long it lasts.
4. For now, the Nashville Predators appear to be using both Roman Josi and Tyson Barrie on the first power play unit at times. Barrie’s value figured to plummet after arriving in Nashville and losing out on that great Edmonton Oilers power play, but if this keeps up, he’ll still be a big asset. Barrie was productive for a stretch after joining the Preds last season when Josi was hurt, so as long as he’s getting time with the man advantage, he should still be able to produce offence.
5. Staying with the Preds, Ryan O’Reilly has been quiet since opening night, but Nashville sure is leaning on him. O’Reilly has played over 20 minutes in every game this season and over 21 minutes in two out of the three contests. It’s been two years since O’Reilly averaged anywhere close to over 20 minutes a night, so if this keeps up and O’Reilly holds the top centre spot, he could see a decent offensive bounce back in 2023-24.
6. I’ve seen a lot of varying point projections for Connor Bedard, but not a lot of people talking about his shot volume. Bedard has 16 shots through three games, which works out to be 437 for the season. There’s no way he keeps this pace up but it would be pretty shocking at this point if Bedard doesn’t at least reach 300 shots.
7. Ryan Donato has two points in his first three games to go along with eight shots, and he’s getting time on power play one. He seems to be the guy to stream right now that’s taking advantage of some time with Bedard.
8. All the attention surrounding the Tampa Bay Lightning power play revolves around who is getting more ice time between Victor Hedman and Mikhail Sergachev, but the bigger story might be Nick Paul. He scored a pair of goals on the man advantage against Nashville and appears to be a fixture on the top unit for the time being. Paul is widely available and could be a savvy pickup with this deployment.
9. Not an ideal start to the season if you’re rostering Kent Johnson. The Columbus Blue Jackets forward was scratched in game one and there is concern that other youngsters like Adam Fantilli and Kirill Marchenko are passing him in the pecking order. Johnson is definitely not worth rostering in one-year leagues right now, but you could still hold him in keeper and dynasty formats if you have the roster space. The talent is there, it’s just going to take time to unlock it.
10. Quirky stat of the week: Marchenko has three assists in two games. He only had four assists total in 59 games last season.
11. If you need goaltending help, Elvis Merzlikins might be a fit. Merzlikins has been stellar so far, stopping 57-of-60 shots in two starts this season. Last year was a really rough one for Merzlikins, but it may have been an anomaly. He’s been solid in every other campaign, posting some good numbers on some not so great Blue Jackets squads. He might be a decent bet if your situation is dire between the pipes.
12. Alexis Lafreniere is off to a good start in what could be a make-or-break year for him, scoring in his first game to go along with three shots. One of the reasons I thought Lafreniere was a better buy-low candidate than Kaapo Kakko or a better option than Filip Chytil, was because he can help you in other areas even if the offence doesn’t arrive. He had 141 hits last season and if he were to see a surge in offensive production, that would make him all the more valuable in multi-cat leagues.
13. The Week 2 schedule sees Arizona, Calgary and Detroit as the only teams to play four times. This may be the time to take a chance on youngsters Logan Cooley and Matt Coronato. Both had impressive pre-seasons, are off to solid starts and are widely available across all leagues.
14. There was much debate if JJ Moser, Sean Durzi or even Juuso Valimaki would be quarterbacking the first power play unit with the Coyotes and it looks like it’s Durzi for now. He scored with the man advantage on Friday night and is still available in almost 50% of leagues. I’m not sure how many games Arizona is going to win this season, but they do have a lot of offensive talent. Grab Durzi while you still can.
15. If there is one team to be mildly concerned about to start the season, it might be the Seattle Kraken. They’ve scored just two goals in three games after finishing in the top five in goal scoring last year. There was definitely some worry about a regression for the likes of Jared McCann and Vince Dunn, so hopefully for those rostering Kraken players this won’t continue.
I’m hoping this isn’t a situation similar to what the Nashville Predators went through last year. In 2021-22 almost everything went right for the Preds and Roman Josi, Ryan Johansen, Matt Duchene, Tanner Jeannot and company all had great years. Then last season a few of them regressed and it spread through the whole team and everybody struggled. It’s too early to say that’s happening in Seattle, but it’s something to monitor.
16. Jonathan Drouin picked up an assist in his first game with the Colorado Avalanche. I was sounding the trumpets all summer for Drouin as a deep sleeper because he was playing with Nathan MacKinnon and Mikko Rantanen. It’s hard to not be productive around those two.
17. Much like Drouin, Quinton Byfield is enjoying playing with two talented linemates in Anze Kopitar and Adrian Kempe. Byfield scored in his first game and added three shots, so he’s someone that I’d look at as a bit of sleeper for this season who could have major value in keeper leagues down the road.
18. I had Jack Hughes ranked at number four in my rankings which was much higher than most had him, with my thinking being he was going to take the biggest leap among those in the top 10. So far, he hasn’t disappointed, scoring five points and recording 10 shots in two contests. Not only do I think Hughes will become the first New Jersey Devil to hit 100 points this season, but I think he could obliterate the century mark and has the potential to go 15 or 20 points past it. The Devils are loaded with talent.
19. If you’re eyeing an early add to your roster, Evan Rodrigues is worth a look. Rodrigues notched two goals and two assists Saturday, playing with Aleksander Barkov on the top line and on the first power play. He always has good shot volume, so an uptick in points would be a great bonus. Rodrigues is only 9% rostered at the moment.
20. James van Riemsdyk scored twice Saturday night, making him an interesting waiver consideration. He’s not even averaging 12 minutes a night, but he’s seeing time on the first line and power play. It’s no secret that van Riemsdyk is a capable scorer around the net and if he keeps getting this deployment, he should be able to find the scoresheet with regularity.
