Roman Josi is back in the Norris conversation.
After scoring 96 points two seasons ago, Josi fell well below expectations in 2022-23. His offensive numbers came way down and injuries cost him 15 games, leaving the Nashville Predators defenceman somewhat of a buy-low option this year in drafts with some uncertainty if he could bounce back. Josi, though, has already exceeded his point total from last year and once again looks like a threat to have a multi-point game every night.
Josi ended up with an ADP of around 48 across all drafts, which put him as a late fourth-round or early fifth-round pick depending on the size of your league. To put that in perspective, Erik Karlsson had an ADP 10 spots ahead of Josi, something those who grabbed the Pittsburgh Penguins defender are probably regretting.
This is a good example of the perils of over-drafting players and not evaluating them properly. Many probably drafted Karlsson hoping he could duplicate last year’s 100-point season, which was a real longshot. Karlsson had a shooting percentage nearly twice his career average last year during a once-in-a-lifetime campaign.
The better bet was Josi, who was coming off an injury-plagued season. His value had nowhere to go but up, while Karlsson’s was almost certainly going to come down. Picking Josi in the fifth round had a ton of upside and Karlsson came with plenty of risk a round or two earlier.
Always let your competitors take the risk in the early rounds of your draft. Making a mistake with one of your first few picks is something you may not be able to overcome.
1. Gustav Nyquist is on a real heater. I mentioned his empty-net goals in last week’s piece but now he’s up to 13 points in his past eight games. He’s still available in more than half of leagues, back on power play one and is easily going to shatter his career high in points. I was concerned that Predators top line wasn’t going to be able to sustain its scoring pace, but they really aren’t showing any signs of slowing down.
2. I wonder if at some point we could see the Boston Bruins deviate from rotating their netminders every night. Linus Ullmark finally picked up a win Saturday, his first in seven starts that included a few rough outings. It’s not that Ullmark has been bad at all this year, but Jeremy Swayman has definitely been the better goalie and with Ullmark’s name coming up in trade talks around the deadline, it’s clear who the Bruins are going to be leaning on sooner rather than later. I’d be looking at Swayman as one of my keepers for next year as it seems possible Boston could move Ullmark this summer.
3. Shane Pinto is a good grab if you’ve lost Josh Norris. He’s picked up eight points in seven games, while providing decent shot volume and getting good ice time. Pinto has locked down a spot on power play one, too.
4. There’s been a lot more inconsistency in Logan Thompson’s game this year. Since October, Thompson has only had one stretch of three quality starts in a row. Add in the fact that Vegas has been struggling a little lately and Adin Hill is getting a few more starts, and Thompson may be better utilized as a streamer than rostering full time.
5. Brent Burns has gone quiet again. He only has two points in 13 games and he’s had one shot or less in six of those contests. He simply isn’t doing much of anything right now and is pacing for just 42 points. Burns just turned 39, so a regression isn’t all that surprising and if it wasn’t for the fact his name carries a lot of weight in fantasy hockey circles due to past performances, I don’t think he’d be anywhere close to 91% rostered. He kind of feels like a drop at this point, but it’s not easy giving up on someone with the history of Brent Burns.
6. It was nice to see Frederik Andersen back between the pipes and looking sharp in his return. This obviously makes the Carolina Hurricanes crease crowded again, but I don’t think it’s really bad news for Pyotr Kochetkov. My guess is they’ll have around a 50/50 split when Andersen gets back up to speed, making them both valuable on a strong team. There’s no need to panic and drop Kochetkov.
7. This is the best Timo Meier has looked all season. He’s notched seven goals in his past five games and 23 shots. Meier’s ice time has also jumped considerably since Travis Green took over and he’s currently on the top line, so perhaps he can take advantage of a new coach bump to salvage a disappointing season.
8. Gabriel Landeskog continues to skate with an eye on a playoff return. Whether or not he gets there remains to be seen and he won’t be fantasy relevant for this season, but if you’re near the bottom of your league standings, it might be worth grabbing him if he’s available. Maybe he comes back and has a strong post-season and could be worth keeping for next year.
9. I mentioned a couple of weeks ago to put Jack Roslovic on your watch list and now he’s getting close to a must add. Roslovic excelled on the Columbus Blue Jackets top line, tallying 13 points in his past 12 games before being dealt to the New York Rangers. Now he’s getting a look in the Rangers top six and New York plays five times next week.
10. It’s a good time to circle back on some players on waivers to see if they’ve received additional position eligibility. With trades, injuries and callups, this is the time of year when lines get juggled quite a bit. Roslovic and Scott Laughton on my roster picked up winger eligibility this week and Logan Stankoven did as well. If you needed another reason to grab Stankoven, there it is.
11. Five points in four games now for Nils Hoglander. He’s looking good playing with Elias Pettersson and has already hit the 20-goal mark. Hoglander is a good bet to make at this time of year for a player under 5 per cent rostered.
12. Things haven’t been going as well for Elias Lindholm. Since his two-goal debut with the Vancouver Cancuks, Lindholm has essentially been ice cold. He hasn’t scored in nearly a month and has just a single assist in his past nine games. Not to mention he hasn’t been able to record more than one shot in 10 of his last 11 outings. There were even rumblings the Canucks were potentially looking at flipping Lindholm already in a potential Jake Guentzel deal that never materialized.
That doesn’t sound like a team who’s happy about their new addition and Lindholm’s latest deployment is also troubling. He’s no longer playing with Pettersson and is off of power play one. He’s skating as the third-line centre with Conor Garland and Vasily Podkolzin. Not ideal. We’ve seen examples in the past of players simply not working out in their new home after an in-season trade. I’m not saying that’s where we’re at with Lindholm yet, but he has been with Vancouver for a month and should be getting more comfortable with his teammates at this point.
So, what do you do with Lindholm? Trade deadlines have likely passed in most leagues and a drop might be a bit extreme at this point. You need to give him more time, but if the deployment and shot volume don’t improve come the fantasy playoffs, you may have to make a tough decision on Lindholm. You can’t keep a player in a win-or-go-home matchup that simply isn’t giving you much of anything.
13. Going into the fantasy playoffs I always think the most important thing with your goaltenders is trust, and it’s hard to trust Andrei Vasilevskiy right now. Despite the shutout Saturday, he allowed at least four goals in five of his past eight previous starts, winning to just two of those games. I’ve had a lot of questions about dropping Vasilevskiy and while risky, I don’t think you should rule it out entirely. If you’re confident in your other options and can benefit from a streaming spot there’s nothing wrong with considering it. In a playoff matchup, it’s less about a goalie with a strong track record and more about who’s playing well right now and who has a good matchup. There’s a lot of inconsistency with Vasilevskiy this season.
14. Ryan Strome is getting more of an opportunity with Adam Henrique traded and Leo Carlsson hurt. He played almost 20 minutes against Ottawa the other night and has three points in his past two outings. He has sneaky value for leagues that count penalty minutes, too. Strome is already closing in on breaking his career high of 79 PIMs.
15. Add Alex Lyon’s name to the Zero G goalies who are going through a tough stretch. He’s 0-4-0 in his past four starts, allowing at least four goals in every game. Lyon already has 32 appearances this year and had just 39 total in his career before the season began, so he’s playing a lot for his standards. It isn’t uncommon for goalies without much NHL experience to hit a wall and one of the biggest mistakes you can make with a goalie like Lyon is holding on too long. I wouldn’t drop him now but it’s something you’ll have to consider before the fantasy playoffs if Lyon can’t right the ship quickly.
16. Joe Veleno didn’t do much with an opportunity centring Alex DeBrincat and Patrick Kane this week with Dylan Larkin injured. JT Compher is getting a look there now and he’s the one I’d grab in Larkin’s absence. Compher can fill a lot of categories for you and is especially valuable in leagues that count faceoff wins. He has LW/RW eligibility, so he can help you in the faceoff department without occupying a centre spot.
17. One of the complications for fantasy hockey around the deadline is the logistics of players moving from one team to another. Tyler Toffoli, for example, won’t join the Winnipeg Jets until next week and the same goes for Jake Allen in New Jersey. A lot of it depends on where the player is going or if they move from Canada to the United States. Unfortunately, you usually end up losing a game or two the weekend following the deadline if any of your players are moved.
18. I was concerned Bowen Byram was going to be leaving one crowded blue line on the left side and joining another when he was dealt from Colorado to Buffalo, but so far it looks to be beneficial. Byram has averaged over 25 minutes in his first two games with the Sabres and has two points and seven shots since the deal. He’s looking good skating next to Rasmus Dahlin on the top pair.
19. Washington Capitals forward Sonny Milano has goals in five straight games now. He’s a guy that could benefit from Anthony Mantha being shipped out of town and with the Caps playing four times next week, he’s worth considering as a streamer.
I also mentioned the Rangers play five times, so maybe it’s worth circling back on Jonathan Quick if you need help in net. He should get at least two starts next week.
Matthew Knies could be a drop at this point with the Toronto Maple Leafs playing just twice. He’s pointless in five and has been dropped to the third line with Mitch Marner injured.
20. Vladimir Tarasenko sure looks good in Florida. It didn’t take him long to make an impact, scoring three points in his first game playing next to Aleksander Barkov and Sam Reinhart. Tarasenko had become somewhat of a fantasy afterthought in Ottawa this year, but don’t underestimate what joining a great team can do for a good player’s confidence. I think Tarasenko is going to make a huge impact down the stretch.
