The first round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs is the storm before the calm. Soon, we’ll be down to four series, a couple games a night and, honestly, it’ll be a little sad for most hockey fans.
But for now, it’s the good stuff. There’s so much going on I couldn’t cover it all in one post, nor could I bring myself to focus on just one thing, so I did the Eastern Conference last week. In this edition, we’ll do the Western Conference.
1. The Oilers' main strengths haven’t been, which is just fine
If you’ve been reading about this series, you may be reading about how Connor McDavid doesn’t have any points yet, how the Oilers power play hasn’t scored yet, and how this is some kind of red flag for them. If there’s any team that deserves the benefit of the doubt after the past few years — and any player — it’s the Oilers and McDavid.
Is Connor going to go this whole series without making an impact on the scoresheet? Impossible to believe. Is the Oilers power play going to dry up for a seven-game series? I’m pretty skeptical.
Playoffs are about wearing teams down, and that Ducks team just doesn’t have the experience of going mistake-free around a superstar over a seven-gamer yet. He’ll make his mark yet.
2. Ducks are the perfect team to force the Oilers into form
Big-picture, I like the draw of the Ducks for the Oilers in Round 1 because the Ducks can score with just about any team in the league. And if you’re Edmonton, it’s a real test (and a reminder) about how diligent you have to be with the puck, and with your reloads as a forward into the F3 spot, and on your D-zone coverages. It’s its own form of practice.
The Oilers can score with them, but they’ve gotta get back to the lower-scoring games they’ve shown they can win in the playoffs. If they can force the style of game in that direction — which they should be able to — I think it sets them up well for future opponents. Playoff hockey is different, and Anaheim should help them find that game. If they don’t lock in there, though, this is anyone’s series. I think they will.
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3. Ingram is understandably a question mark
This one is fairly self-explanatory: Connor Ingram hasn’t been terrible yet, but he hasn’t been great either. One thing we know from the Stuart Skinner years is that they mostly just need their goalie to be solid. The stat you’re seeing out there today is that Ingram is one of a handful of goalies in the negatives in “goals saved above expected” at minus-1. The playoff jitters should be gone by now; they’re leaving Edmonton, and he should be able to find his game in Anaheim.
4. Oilers, Ducks are an example for why what Colorado is doing is impressive
Sometimes we forget how random hockey is compared to other sports. The NBA, for example, has never had a team come back from a 3-0 deficit. In hockey, sometimes the luck just flips and, often, a worse team can take home a win.
Watching the Avalanche, they’re not running away with their games against the Kings, but they’re just so clearly better, and in the right spots, and taking care of business, that sometimes we think it’s easy. The Kings have good players, too, and Colorado is taking care of business, which makes it scary going forward.
5. The Kings are kinda stuck
There are tons of teams around the NHL that fell short of expectations this year and are considering a “retool.” To me, the Kings are kinda what you’re looking to avoid if I’m those teams. Like, they’re OK, pretty good, but they’ve got no sincere chance to win the Cup. They’ll draft somewhere around 20th, which likely isn’t changing the future of the franchise any time soon. They got desperate and got Artemi Panarin, and so it’s tough to see any kind of immediate turnaround. It’s not a great plan.
They do have hope on the horizon, though: Panarin’s $11-million salary comes off the books just as Auston Matthews' and McDavid’s contracts expire. I’m sure they’re eager to try to recruit some big names to pull out of the mushy-middle cycle.
6. Artturi Lehkonen is a guy you win with
Lehkonen has played 81 playoff games in just eight seasons in the league, and over that time, he’s upped his scoring from 0.51 points per game in the regular season to 0.62 in the playoffs. He’s averaged 20.5 goals per 82 games in the regular season, and has 28 in those 81 playoff games. He also kills penalties, plays in the big minutes, defends and all the rest.
Of course, the Avs are built around their superstars, but you also need a couple of guys like this who are just gamers.
7. Vegas can’t let a gettable path get complicated
If you’re Vegas, this is a huge playoff run. They spent big to get Mitch Marner and Rasmus Anderson, and they’re chock-full of top-end talent. They got red hot after firing their coach and bringing in John Tortorella. They’re clearly all-in, and they’ve also got a very manageable path forward for what’s supposed to be an elite team.
They’re playing a very inexperienced Utah team and, after that, both the Ducks and Oilers have question marks. Not that they’d be easy opponents, but they wouldn’t be huge underdogs against the more likely opponent, Edmonton. In the meantime, Vegas is one of the older, most experienced teams, and you never know how many more runs teams with 30-plus-year-old cores will have. Their time is now.
8. But they gotta stop Guenther-Cooley-Yamamoto
Fun fact: the expected goals for the above line in Game 2 were 96 per cent. Basically, every chance that went toward a net went the right way when they were out there. In Game 1, it was closer to 75 per cent, which is still unbelievably good.
These guys are announcing themselves on the NHL's biggest stage, and although nobody expects them to actually win, they’re making it clear they’re going to be competitive for years to come.
9. Wyatt Johnston won’t be left off Team Canada next time
Johnston is only the eighth player in playoff history who, before 23, has piled up six game-winning goals. He’s young, and he’s clutch. Fresh off another year of filling the net, he’s clearly become one of Dallas’ most important offensive forces and someone they rely on daily. Canada’s next wave may include the aforementioned Guenther, and Johnston will be there right beside him.
10. Dallas needs a win Friday night for the sake of a potential Colorado series
As the Stars are watching the Avalanche walk past the Kings, they have to know how big Game 4 is for them. They don’t have the luxury of looking past any games, but we do as observers, and let’s be real. They — and Minnesota, too, for that matter — built their roster with the Stanley Cup in mind. And as the Avs look to get past the Kings in four and rest up, the idea of playing a seven-game knock-down drag-out series versus the Wild would all but sink either team.
And so, looking at the big picture, the Stars need Game 4 badly. Otherwise, the Wild have hope and will push, and they’re a damn tough team to beat when they get going. It would go deep. Either way, this series is shaping up to be everything we thought it might be, which makes their chances in Round 2 look awfully bleak.
