20 Fantasy Thoughts: Encouraging signs for a Grubauer bounceback season

Seattle Kraken goaltender Philipp Grubauer can't stop a goal by Los Angeles Kings' Gabriel Vilardi during the second period of an NHL hockey game Wednesday, April 27, 2022, in Seattle. (Ted S. Warren/AP)

I’m not sure any player has as much to prove this year than Philipp Grubauer. The Seattle Kraken netminder is coming off a nightmare campaign, where he posted a career-worst .889 save percentage.

At first glance, it would be easy to pin Grubauer’s struggles on playing for an expansion team, but the Kraken actually ranked strongly in a number of defensive metrics last season. Seattle finished in the top 10 in shots allowed (5th), total scoring chances allowed (6th), and high-danger chances allowed (7th). That means there’s reason to believe, if Grubauer can tidy up his game a bit, he’ll be a decent fantasy bounce-back option.

He's going to play a ton and there were signs this preseason that he was turning things around. Grubauer didn’t allow a goal in his first two outings and finished with a .939 save percentage in three appearances. Now that’s a small sample size and preseason action should be taken with a grain of salt, but you have to at least be somewhat encouraged if Grubauer is on your roster.

At the very least, Grubauer really can’t get any worse than he was in 2021-22.

1. If Miro Heiskanen doesn’t break out this year, I’m not sure it’s ever going to happen. Heiskanen is one of those “better in real life” players than he is in fantasy, as he’s never eclipsed 36 points in a season. With John Klingberg gone and Peter DeBoer arriving behind the bench, Heiskanen should have his best opportunity yet for a big year. DeBoer did wonders for fellow defensemen Brent Burns and Shea Theodore in previous stops, so hopefully he does the same for Heiskanen.

2. A couple of years ago at the 2020 Draft, everybody was scrambling to try and figure who the heck Yegor Chinakhov was when the Columbus Blue Jackets took him 21st overall. Now he just finished the preseason with six goals in six games. I’m not sure how much of a fantasy impact he’ll make this year, but I don’t think it’s going to be too long before everyone knows Chinakhov’s name.

3. Does Kyle Connor hit 50 goals this season? It wouldn’t shock me if he gets there. Nobody besides Auston Matthews had more even strength goals in 2021-22 and Connor always feels very underrated to me.

4. One player that may benefit from playing with Connor in the Jets' top six is Cole Perfetti. There’s lots of upside to the talented rookie and he could be a bargain off the wire in deeper leagues.

5. What an opportunity for Anton Forsberg. If the Ottawa Senators take a big step forward this year, Forsberg will have a ton of value if he can grab the job between the pipes early on with Cam Talbot sidelined. I’d definitely take a chance on him in the first two months of the season if you need goalie help. He’s going to play a lot.

6. If you can’t get Forsberg or aren’t pleased with your goalies following your draft, don’t panic. Inevitably, there will be someone to come out of nowhere off waivers like Ville Husso and Alex Nedeljkovic did over the past two seasons. One candidate this year could be Pyotr Kochetkov of the Carolina Hurricanes. The odds of both Frederik Andersen and Antti Raanta staying healthy for the bulk of the season seem slim, so I’d bet Kochetkov gets a look at some point.

7. Sticking with the Canes, Brent Burns looked really strong this preseason, notching three goals, a pair of assists and eight shots in just two games. Don’t be surprised if he gets back up to the 65-70 point mark playing with Jaccob Slavin, who is the perfect partner to let Burns roam free offensively.

8. Keep an eye out for Connor Brown taking advantage of the injury to Tom Wilson and playing with Alex Ovechkin and Evgeny Kuznetsov. I could see Brown easily getting back to 20 goals again this year.

9. If your league counts hits and blocks, give Alexander Romanov a look. He finished in the top 20 in both categories a season ago and has been paired with Noah Dobson for the New York Islanders throughout the preseason. Romanov is rostered in just 13% of Yahoo leagues.

10. I’m mildly concerned about the Bruins goaltending this season. Boston ranked in the top five in goals against average in all of Bruce Cassidy’s five full seasons behind the bench, including three first overall finishes, thanks in part to his strong defensive structure. That, and the fact Brad Marchand and Charlie McAvoy will be sidelined for a couple of months, makes me worry about Jeremy Swayman struggling somewhat.

11. Rickard Rakell was a trendy pick this season because he’ll likely play with Sidney Crosby and Jake Guentzel, but I’m not sure you’re going to get a big return on that investment. Rakell has had shooting percentages in the single digits in each of the past four years and went scoreless this preseason on 14 shots. He simply may not be a good finisher.

12. Someone who is living up to the hype so far is Andrei Kuzmenko of the Vancouver Canucks. Kuzmenko is taking advantage of an opportunity on the first power play unit with Brock Boeser injured, to the tune of three goals and six points in the three preseason games. The question is, can Kuzmenko do enough to hold onto that spot when Boeser is healthy?

13. Phil Kessel spent some time with Jack Eichel in the Vegas top six this preseason. I’m not sure I’d roster Kessel right now, but if he does stick with that group, I think he can still be productive and may be worth an add. Kessel notched 52 points on a bad Arizona team last season, so 60 could be in reach with the right deployment in Vegas.

14. It seems like a foregone conclusion that Nick Robertson will make the Toronto Maple Leafs this year after five points in four exhibition games. In a best-case scenario he grabs the left wing spot on the second line when John Tavares is healthy. Add Robertson to your watch list.

15. I could see a career year coming for Mikhail Sergachev in several categories. Someone has to replace Ryan McDonagh’s minutes and there’s only so much ice-time Victor Hedman can take.

16. It’s amazing that Dougie Hamilton hasn’t scored more than 50 points in a season before. The talent is certainly there and the New Jersey Devils seem poised, with all their young talent, to be one of the highest scoring and most exciting teams this year. It wouldn’t surprise me if Hamilton has 60 points in him if he can stay healthy.

17. If you’re worried Patrick Kane has no one left to play with in Chicago, I wouldn’t be overly concerned. Kane boasts the skill to produce solid offensive numbers with just about anyone and there could be a reward later in the season for taking him. It’s likely Kane gets dealt to a contender at the deadline, giving your team a huge boost just in time for the fantasy playoffs.

18. Nino Niederreiter has already notched three goals in two games for the Nashville Predators. Keep in mind, Niederreiter scored 24 a year ago while mainly being relegated to third line duties in Carolina. He’s got a shot to set a new career high playing on the second group in Nashville.

19. Minnesota Wild rookie Marco Rossi looks ready for prime time, finishing with nine points in five preseason games. Rossi is my pick to win the Calder this season.

20. It’s never too early to start looking at schedules if you’re in a head-to-head league. For instance, the St. Louis Blues play just three times over the first two weeks, which isn’t ideal if you’re counting on the likes of Robert Thomas, Jordan Kyrou, or Vladimir Tarasenko. Those players aren’t droppable, but if you have any other Blues that aren’t as valuable you may want to consider making a waiver swap already. You don’t want to dig yourself a hole this early in the season.

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