Resting players at this time of year is everyone’s worst nightmare in fantasy hockey.
Teams heading to the Stanley Cup playoffs with a secure spot are starting to sit important players out for a game here and there to ensure they are ready for the postseason, and you can see why. This week alone we saw the likes of Cale Makar, Charlie McAvoy, Joel Eriksson Ek and Tanner Jeannot all go down with injuries.
Load management isn’t as prevalent in the NHL as it is in the NBA, but we are seeing fewer relevant games in the final weeks of the season with the league’s current playoff format. So why wouldn’t teams like the Toronto Maple Leafs and Tampa Bay Lightning, who have been locked into a first-round matchup for months, hold players out of the lineup to avoid injury? It’s starting to feel like the most critical days on the fantasy calendar are becoming less and less important to NHL teams.
As long as this playoff format remains, I think players are going to continue resting during your semi-final and championship weeks. It’s just something you’re going to have to account for, and overcome, if you want to win a title.
1. When the Calgary Flames traded for Jonathan Huberdeau last summer, I immediately thought it would benefit Tyler Toffoli the most. It seemed obvious that Huberdeau, Toffoli and Elias Lindholm would make up a very potent Flames top line, leading me to believe Toffoli had an outside shot at 40 goals. Things don’t always go as planned, though. Huberdeau is heading for a historic regression and Lindholm is having a down year, so if you haven’t been paying attention, you’d think Toffoli suffered as well. That’s the furthest thing from the truth, however, as he’s shattered his career high in points and isn’t going to finish too far off 40 goals. I wonder if Toffoli’s season has done a lot to change people’s opinion of him in the fantasy world. Toffoli has been looked at as a solid scorer in the past that can take advantage of playing time with elite talent, but in 2022-23 he’s proven he’s capable of carrying the play all on his own. If Huberdeau and Lindholm have bounce-back campaigns next season, can Toffoli take his production to even greater heights?
2. It’s been an unusually quiet stretch for Brad Marchand. The Boston Bruins forward hasn’t picked up a point in six games, hasn’t scored in 15 games, and has just one goal in 20 outings. Marchand is still having a strong season overall, but it’s understandable that coming off a significant hip surgery and closing in on his 35th birthday, that he might be slowing down just a tad.
3. Kasperi Kapanen appears to have found a home with the St. Louis Blues. There’s been a lot of praise for how well Jakub Vrana and Sammy Blais have played, but Kapanen has also been productive, scoring eight goals since joining the Blues. The talent has always been there, Kapanen just hasn’t been able to put it all together to become fantasy relevant in the past. Maybe this is the start of Kapanen becoming rosterable for next season.
4. I’m not sure I’ve seen a better season go virtually unnoticed than that of Antti Raanta this year. Raanta is now 18-3-3 with four shutouts on the campaign. He’s been money to start in fantasy whenever he gets a chance. That’s the problem, though. Between injuries and Carolina’s goalie rotation, he just hasn’t played consistently enough to receive a lot of attention.
Raanta also plays for arguably the best defensive team in the league and if he doesn’t re-sign with the Hurricanes next year, he almost certainly won’t have as much value.
5. What an offensive explosion for Brady Skjei this year. He had 37 career goals coming into 2022-23 and he’s potted 18 this year. Skjei’s shooting percentage right now is almost double his career average, so don’t expect this torrid pace to continue next year. It’s just one of those happy anomalies to enjoy if you’ve been rostering him.
6. Despite a seven-game point streak, it’s been too little too late for Aaron Ekblad this season. I’d imagine if you drafted Ekblad this year you probably moved on from him a while ago, or your team simply isn’t in it anymore. This Ekblad surge would’ve been more meaningful in December than April.
7. There’s a new fantasy playoff MVP in town and his name is Alex Lyon. He’s been nothing short of incredible, going 6-0-0 with a .956 save percentage in his past six starts. It’s always risky taking a chance on someone like Lyon at this time of year and it takes a lot of guts to have the confidence to keep rolling with him, when every start is so critical at this point in the fantasy season. We always talk about how unpredictable goaltending is, which is why it’s best to not overthink it when someone like Lyon comes along.
It’s tempting to sit him for more reliable options, but often times these goalie runs can take on a life of their own. Pheonix Copley and Pyotr Kochetkov have been great examples of this in 2022-23. Eventually, Lyon is going to come back down to earth, but just squeeze every start out of him you can while it lasts. Sometimes to win your league you have to make big gambles, and Lyon is definitely one that paid off.
8. It hasn’t been a banner year for David Perron, but he’s at least closing strong. Perron has 13 points in his past 11 games and has been a valuable streaming option over the past few weeks. Based on his point paces over the past five years, Perron seemed like a lock to hit 60 points this year. Even with this late run, though, he still might not get there.
9. The New Jersey Devils have never had a 100-point scorer and Jack Hughes is sitting at 96 with two games to go. Can he get there?
10. It appears the goalie carousel in Vegas has landed on Laurent Brossoit, for now anyway. Brossoit has started five of the past eight games, posting a .937 save percentage in his past three outings. There are always signs you can read into to see who a team is confident in, and the fact that Vegas didn’t give Jonathan Quick the start the other night against his former team the Los Angeles Kings was very telling. Brossoit is the guy to roster in Vegas right now.
11. Ivan Barbashev has been tough to get a read on lately. He enjoyed some solid production on Jack Eichel’s line, before going two games without a point or even a shot. Now he’s been bumped down to the third line where he picked up two points Thursday night, but followed that up Saturday with another pointless and shotless night. I think Barbashev is too inconsistent to hold onto anymore.
12. We’ve been so accustomed to Alex Ovechkin scoring goals, that even a small slump seems significant. It’s been four games now since Ovechkin has scored, but maybe more concerning is that in three of those games he’s only had a single shot. With a tough schedule next week against the New York Islanders, Boston Bruins and New Jersey Devils, and the fact that he’s dealing with a bit of an injury, Ovechkin is running out of good opportunities this season to continue to close the gap on Wayne Gretzky.
13. All things considered, it’s been a decent season for Johnny Gaudreau. Sure, some will point to the fact that his points have taken a big pretty big dip from a year ago, but given the injuries, the Columbus Blue Jackets have dealt with and the fact they’ve been close to the basement for most of the season, things could’ve been a lot worse. Gaudreau isn’t going to finish too far off a point per game and with over 70 points, which is more than respectable when you consider what happened to someone like Huberdeau when he switched teams.
14. If you’re in a roto league or any format that’s still playing next week, the Buffalo Sabres are the only team playing four times, with some good matchups to close out the season. Try to add Sabres that make sense to maximize games played. Casey Mittelstadt, with 11 points in his past seven games, comes to mind.
15. Just when I thought Clayton Keller, Nick Schmaltz, and Barrett Hayton were finally starting to cool off, they combined for five points Saturday. All three were great fantasy playoff performers and I think they’ll be on the radar of a number teams during draft time this fall. Keller in particular I think some people might grab in the first five rounds.
16. Nik Ehlers is up to six points in his past four games, but still isn’t seeing that much ice time. He’s only hit 16 minutes twice in the past nine games. We’ll have to see what next year brings, as right now it doesn’t appear Rick Bowness wants to lean heavily on Ehlers, for whatever reason. I’d argue Ehlers is probably the most skilled player on the Winnipeg Jets, so it’s perplexing he isn’t seeing more ice.
17. It’s now been 12 starts in a row for Connor Hellebuyck and he’s managed to post a .923 save percentage over that stretch. That’s difficult to do this late in the season and not let your level of play slip. He’s the main reason the Jets still have the inside track on a playoff spot and even though the Vezina is likely going to come down to either Linus Ullmark or Ilya Sorokin, Hellebuyck certainly has a case for the award, too.
18. We’ve witnessed an inconsistent season for Bryan Rust, though he does have four goals in his past five games and his shot volume has been pretty good over the past 10 games or so. With so many skaters resting, look at players like Rust who won’t be sitting out because their teams still have plenty to play for.
19. Back-to-back strong starts for Tristan Jarry and to be fair, five of his past seven games have been really solid. Jarry has been unreliable this season due to some bad outings and injuries, but his game appears to be the most stable we’ve seen in a while right now. You’ve got to hope he can keep it going for just a few more games if you’re still rostering him.
20. As good as Connor McDavid is, we probably aren’t talking enough about his 150-point season. Those numbers are just unheard of in this era and McDavid is only the sixth player to ever do it and the first since 1995-96. This entire year actually feels like a throwback to the early 90s, as we could see as many as 14 different 100-point scorers and with a little luck, maybe seven different 50-goal scorers. That makes the game, and fantasy hockey, a lot more exciting. The first round in drafts next season is going to be very interesting, as there will be lots of debate and plenty of choices for who should be a top-10 pick.
