2020 Eastern Conference Final Preview: Lightning vs. Islanders

Tampa Bay Lightning's Alex Killorn (17) defends against New York Islanders' Mathew Barzal (13) during the second period of an NHL hockey game Friday, Nov. 1, 2019, in Uniondale, N.Y. (Frank Franklin II/AP)

It’s certainly not the Eastern Conference Final most people predicted, but it still has the potential to be an exciting, tactical series.

The Tampa Bay Lightning are well rested after eliminating the Boston Bruins in five games, while the New York Islanders blew a 3-1 series lead against the Philadelphia Flyers before a strong ahowing in Game 7.

After a month-plus stint in the Toronto bubble, both teams have flown to Edmonton where the conference finals will take place.

With that in mind, here’s how the Lightning and Islanders stack up:

ADVANCED STATS
Playoff 5-on-5 numbers via Natural Stat Trick

Tampa Bay: 55.51 CF%, 62.00 GF%, 94.36 SV%, 8.01 SH%, 1.024 PDO
New York: 48.83 CF%, 63.16 GF%, 93.93 SV%, 9.30 SH%, 1,032 PDO

TEAM STATS

Tampa Bay: 17.1 PP%, 81.3 PK%, 39 GF, 30 GA
New York: 17.0 PP%, 82.2 PK%, 54 GF, 31 GA

HEAD TO HEAD RECORD
The Islanders won the season series 2-1-0 and outscored the Lightning 10-3 in their two victories.

How Tampa Bay got here: After suffering one of the most unexpected and embarrassing playoff exits in recent memory just over one year ago – the Presidents’ Trophy winners were swept in the first round by Columbus – there was added pressure on the Lightning this post-season.

Jon Cooper’s group was chugging along nicely in the qualifying round, with a pair of 3-2 wins over the Capitals and Bruins, but Lightning players and fans held their collective breath when Victor Hedman sustained a bad-looking ankle injury in the round robin finale against the Flyers. Thankfully, Hedman didn’t miss a game in the opening round as his team looked for revenge against Columbus – in fact he logged 57:38 of ice time in that epic five-overtime Game 1 against the Blue Jackets. Columbus put up a good fight against Tampa but Brayden Point’s two OT goals helped lead the Lightning to a quick 4-1 series win.

Facing the Bruins in a battle of the East’s two best regular-season teams, the Lightning overcame a 1-0 series deficit to win four in a row. Tampa averaged 2.8 goals against the Blue Jackets and that increased to 3.8 goals per game against the Bruins.

Point has been a leader with Nikita Kucherov on the top line, the middle six are chipping in with timely goals, the fourth line provides a physical edge, and Hedman is a force on the back end proving yet again that he just might be the best blueliner in all of hockey.

They’ve continued to do it all without captain Steven Stamkos who remains sidelined with a lower-body injury. Kucherov was injured in Game 5 against the Bruins after being on the receiving end of a Zdeno Chara high stick but the 2019 Hart winner returned to practice Thursday. Kucherov, Point and Ondrej Palat combined for eight goals and 14 assists against the B’s and that top line is integral to a Cup run.

How New York got here: The Islanders are the East’s little engine that could. After sweeping the Penguins in a first-round upset last year, the Isles have outdone themselves in 2020 and are in the conference finals for the first time since 1993. They’re four wins away from the franchise’s first Stanley Cup Final appearance since 1984.

Barry Trotz’s group had lost seven straight games to finish off the COVID-shortened regular season but have been one of the most complete teams in the post-season, frustrating opponents with a methodical, defensively responsible approach. They’ve lost just twice in regulation this summer, once to Florida and once to Washington. Philly pushed them to a Game 7 thanks to three overtime wins.

The Islanders play a stifling, 200-foot game and are excellent at closing off passing and shooting lanes. The Islanders have only allowed 30 or more shots on four occasions with two of those games being OT contests.

One interesting storyline to watch in the Tampa series is in between the pipes. Thomas Greiss picked up two wins against the Flyers and started in place of Semyon Varlamov in Game 7 where he earned a 16-save shutout.

Lightning X-Factor: February trade acquisitions Blake Coleman and Barclay Goodrow have made life rather difficult for the opposition. The team spent a pair of first-round picks to get Coleman and Goodrow and both players have had an impact this summer.

“Anybody who’s been part of playoffs (knows) the game is a grind. You need those type of guys who can do that, and we found them,” Cooper said of Coleman, Goodrow and other role players after the Bruins series. “It’s clearly really helped us.”

If they can frustrate the Islanders the same way New York’s forwards have throughout the regular- and post-season it’ll go a long way to Tampa securing its first Stanley Cup Final appearance since 2015.

Islanders X-Factor: Josh Bailey has never been a point-per-game player, so his output this post-season has been a pleasant surprise to say the least. Only Nathan MacKinnon and Miro Heiskanen had more assists through qualifying and the first two rounds than Bailey’s 15 apples in 16 games. Bailey’s linemantes Anthony Beauvillier and Brock Nelson, along with Anders Lee and Jean-Gabirel Pageau, have been the team’s primary goal scorers but Bailey’s playmaking ability can’t be overlooked.

Lightning will win if... they stay patient, consistent, disciplined yet remain aggressive. That’s how they ended up beating the Blue Jackets, another hardworking and defensively responsible team with solid goaltending. Tampa is the deepest and most skilled roster in the East and so long as they aren’t their own worst enemy they should punch their ticket to the Cup final. Andrei Vasilevskiy keeping his GAA below 2.00 like he has thus far won’t hurt either.

Islanders will win if... they continue doing exactly what they’ve done to get to this point. That starts with limiting Tampa’s scoring chances. The Lightning have averaged 35.5 shots and the Islanders have allowed fewer than 27 shots per game. The way they bottled up and shut down Philly in Game 7 was incredible to watch. The question is, does Tampa simply have too much firepower up and down their lineup or is New York’s style equally effective against all rosters?

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