Offence is exciting. It drives highlight reels, inspires creativity, and draws a crowd.
But does it win championships? Consider the three most offensive regular season teams in the salary cap era.
In 2018-19, the Tampa Bay Lightning averaged 3.89 goals per game, the second-most in this part of history. This team was four years removed from a Cup final, two years removed from failing to qualify for the playoffs, and looking to prove itself again. They won 62 games and the Presidents' Trophy — but none at all in the playoffs and were swiftly upset by Columbus.
In 2009-10, the Washington Capitals averaged 3.82 goals per game, the third-most of the era. This team was electric, with a 50-goal Alex Ovechkin season, two of the league's four 100-point players, and defenceman Mike Green scoring over a point per game. It was Year 3 of a full core of Ovechkin, Green, Nicklas Backstrom and Alex Semin, and they were looking to break through, following a seven-game, Round 2 elimination the year prior. They won 54 games, the Presidents' Trophy … and three playoff games, scoring one goal in another Game 7 elimination.
And now we have the 2021-22 Florida Panthers, the highest-scoring team of the cap era and something of a throwback — the Panthers are the first team since the 1995-96 Penguins to average over four goals per game (4.11). A young-ish team that's taken some time to mature, this core lost in the qualifying round two years ago, and the first round last season. But so much has been added to the roster since then and almost every piece has added to the speed and scoring ability they play with. They won 58 games this season and the Presidents' Trophy — so, what do the playoffs have in store?
Goal scoring around the league was up this season, to a level not seen in 26 years and the Panthers are the face of it. But there is skepticism that this can translate to post-season success. Are the Panthers destined to fall victim to tighter ice or a cold shooting percentage? Are they prepared to deal with the pressures of playoff hockey, or are they still a bit green as a roster?
The first test comes against the Capitals, an organization that knows all too well about growing pains. The 2010 season referred to above was maybe the first true failure of the Ovechkin era, but as their Cup window opened it still took another eight years after that loss to Montreal before they won a championship.
This year's Caps are less intimidating than those of a decade or so ago, but fully seasoned and capable to jump up and bite when you least expect it. Ovechkin is still, remarkably, at his peak and the top of the roster can still bring the offence. Tom Wilson is the wild card who can turn a series in one direction or the other real quick. It's been three years since they've won a playoff round and Florida is a lot to handle, but these Caps are still a 100-point team.
So, can a relentless offence with defensive question marks make it all the way through? Can it win even one round? Florida is the Great Hope for those wishing this year's league-wide offensive uptick is the start of something new.
HEAD TO HEAD RECORD
Panthers: 2-1-0
Capitals: 1-1-1
THE BREAKDOWN
OK so Florida's offence is ridiculous. Jonathan Huberdeau, 115 points, finished second in the league and is a Hart candidate. Aleksander Barkov scored 39 times for a career-best season. And Sam Reinhart arrived from woeful Buffalo and transformed into a 33-goal, 82-point player. Those are your top three scorers — and they're all on different lines.
The Panthers come at you in waves of offence and fierce forechecking with a reckless abandon. It's organized chaos, a heck of a lot of fun to watch, and they're never out of games. Their 11 wins when trailing after two periods is tied for third most in league history since the 1967 expansion, and their .393 winning percentage when trailing after two is fourth-best in that time. In early April the Panthers trailed Toronto 5-1 and came back for a 7-6 OT win. Real 1980s-type stuff.
But there are cracks in the foundation in terms of your more traditional playoff norms. By expected goals against at 5-on-5 (considering shot quality), the Panthers were middle of the pack, 15th in the league. They allowed the 12th-most high danger opportunities at 5-on-5, better than only the Rangers among Eastern Conference playoff teams. And the goalies don't reliably elevate the defence, finishing with the league's 18th-ranked save percentage at 5-on-5. Sergei Bobrovsky will start, but faces a whole host of questions about his reliability. He had an .893 save percentage in April, which followed a .924 save percentage in March. Spencer Knight (and Chris Driedger) spelled Bobrovsky in last season's series against the Lightning when the starter struggled, and he could be in the picture again in 2022.
This is an opportunity for the Capitals to regain a little rep. The first 100-point eighth seed in NHL history, Washington hasn't won a playoff round since 2018 and has slid a tier or two. But look past this team at your peril.
An upper-body injury forced Ovechkin to miss the last three games of the regular season, and the status of the 50-goal man looms large. Wilson brings the sandpaper, but also the ability to score key goals in the hard areas where playoff reputations are formed. Evgeny Kuznetsov, questioned and challenged by his GM at the end of last season's disappointment, flew back in with a 78-point finish.
The Caps have scary flash, but also aren't remarkable in any one area. Middle of the league by Corsi percentage, penalty-killing rate, and high-danger chances allowed. Their power play is towards the bottom of the league, and not a likely source to bridge any goal gap on the Panthers. Their goaltending, too, was an area they wanted to upgrade on at the deadline, but left ultimately unaddressed. Neither Vitek Vanecek nor Ilya Samsonov had all that great a finish to the season and might have to split duty — especially if that explosive Panthers offensive continues to chug along.
ADVANCED STATS
(5-on-5 totals via Natural Stat Trick)
REGULAR SEASON TEAM STATS
Florida Panthers X-Factor: Sergei Bobrovsky
Generally, I don't like picking goalies for these since technically the goalie could be the X-Factor for all teams all the time. But while we await the referendum on an offensive-reliant team working in the playoffs, if Bobrovsky bobs bad and puts up another stinker of a start to a series, it could all get undermined. Last season, Bobrovsky let in five Game 1 goals to Tampa Bay, and then ceded the net to Chris Driedger in Game 2. After replacing a struggling Driedger mid-game in Game 3, Bobrovsky earned the start back in Game 4 and allowed five more in a loss. Spencer Knight then allowed four goals over the next two games as Florida lost the series.
That kind of start to the playoffs can't happen again. And maybe it can be different with Bobrovsky this time. He has looked incredible at points this season, finishing with a .913 save percentage that was his best in four years, and a plus-8.50 Goals Saved Above Expected that ranked 17th in the league. Not spectacular, but certain improvement. Of course, it also comes with this caveat: Bobrovsky allowed four goals or more in 25 per cent of his starts this season. He started April by allowing 10 goals against in two games versus Toronto and New Jersey — and then posted a .919 save percentage the rest of the month. Florida doesn't need Bobrovsky, the $10 million goalie, to steal series. They just need him to not lose them.
Washington Capitals X-Factor: Evgeny Kuznetsov
With or without Ovechkin for any stretch, Kuznetsov will need to bring it if the Capitals have a shot to bring down the Panthers. His turnaround has been remarkable after all of last summer's trade rumours and now he has to prove he's all the way back in the post-season, too. In his past 15 playoff games dating back three years, Kuznetsov has three goals and 10 points. His most notable game in that span was a one goal, one assist effort in 2020 against the Islanders. The Caps won that game 3-2 to extend the series, but were eliminated the next game in a 4-0 loss. Kuznetsov had no points, one shot and was a minus-2 in that one. He can and now must make a difference.
Go back to the Cup championship season of 2018 though, and you see Kuznetsov in full flight. He paced the Capitals with 32 points in 24 playoff games and was second to Ovechkin with 12 goals.
If Ovechkin isn't ready to go in Game 1, then Kuznetsov will be the focal point on offence and need to elevate his presumed wingers Tom Wilson and Anthony Mantha. If Ovechkin is back it'll take some focus off Kuznetsov, but his contributions will remain just as important. That duo was one of the most dangerous early in the NHL season and fully capable of getting back to that together. And against this Panthers team, if the top line doesn't show up on the score sheet, Washington is in trouble.
BROADCAST DETAILS
Tuesday, May 3: at Florida, 7:30 p.m. ET (Sportsnet 360)
Thursday, May 5: at Florida, 7:30 p.m. ET (Sportsnet 360)
Saturday, May 7: at Washington, 1 p.m. ET (Sportsnet)
Monday, May 9: at Washington, 7 p.m. ET (Sportsnet ONE)
*Wednesday, May 11: at Florida
*Friday, May 13: at Washington
*Sunday, May 15: at Florida
