A necessary caveat before I divulge three predictions that might (but probably won’t) come true: I’m writing this on Dec. 15, more than a week out from its publication, before a return-to-play protocol has been agreed on by the NHL and NHLPA and prior to a schedule being released.
So if (when) I’m wrong, there’s that.
Don’t discount it as a factor, because without knowing where the Montreal Canadiens will be playing on any given night, or how frequently they’ll be playing or what their travel agenda will be, making an accurate estimate on how many points they’ll finish the season with seems futile. So I’ll steer clear of the big-picture stuff.
Now, with the excuses out of the way, I’m ready to play ball here… mostly because my editors told me to.
1. The Canadiens will have a top-five power play this season
Why not start off with a bomb of a prediction?
Make no mistake — this is as bold as it gets. After a historically bad run in 2018–19, when the Canadiens operated the NHL’s second-worst power play (13.3%), they climbed to only 22nd-best with a 4.4-percent increase in 2019–20, and they operated at just over 15 per cent efficiency in the Toronto bubble this past summer. So thinking they’re going to improve enough to pierce the NHL’s top five, without the type of elite-level talent up front of, say, the Edmonton Oilers or Toronto Maple Leafs or Tampa Bay Lightning or Vancouver Canucks or Vegas Golden Knights or Colorado Avalanche or Washington Capitals, is crazy.
It’s especially crazy considering the Canadiens haven’t made any changes to the coaching staff — Kirk Muller and Dominique Ducharme are still running the power play under Claude Julien’s supervision — and their top-scoring forward on the power play over the last two seasons combined (Max Domi) was traded to the Columbus Blue Jackets for a forward (Josh Anderson) who has a total of 11 power play points in 267 NHL games.
But I still say they’re going to do it.
The addition of Anderson and Tyler Toffoli to a unit that includes Shea Weber up top and a healthy Jonathan Drouin — he missed 42 games last year with a torn tendon in his wrist and was a shell of himself in the eight games he played upon his return — and Nick Suzuki running the flanks has promise.
Muller summed up what the Canadiens are gaining with the additions of Toffoli and Anderson with these comments made Nov. 25:
“Toffoli is a right-hander. Sitting in that slot, he’s had some great success. You watch, he’s got quick hands, so he can make plays in those areas. He has the ability to score in that slot with his shot. He can be very dangerous and effective, which could open things up for other guys. As for Josh, he’s a big body. He can play around the net; he can use that size. I know he hasn’t played a lot [on the power play], but if you look at what he’s capable of doing, and his ability to play around there, that net presence — which is huge on a power play — I think he can be effective on the power play in that position.”
I agree with all of that.
Toffoli being a dual threat from the bumper position, with Anderson providing a net presence (in addition to what he can contribute with puck recovery and control), has a multifaceted benefit — at least in theory. First off, it frees up Weber’s shot, which was successfully suppressed last season.
Without a viable dual-threat option in the slot (sorry, Brendan Gallagher), without Drouin there to set plays up, and without a consistent net-front presence, Weber had just 46 shot attempts and scored just three goals on the power play in 65 games.
Contrast that with his first season with the Canadiens in 2016–17, with Max Pacioretty, Alex Galchenyuk, Alexander Radulov and Andrei Markov providing threats from their respective positions, Weber had 126 shot attempts and scored 12 goals on the power play in 78 games.
Now Toffoli and Anderson are shooting threats, Suzuki is a more dangerous one, and everyone gets a bit more space as a result. That’s the other benefit of those off-season additions.
A second unit that has Tomas Tatar (who tied Suzuki for the lead in power play points last season) in the bumper, Jeff Petry up top, Gallagher in the low post, Joel Armia on the forecheck and Jesperi Kotkaniemi running the half-wall and contributing to zone entries can threaten, too.
2. Suzuki will lead the Canadiens in scoring
Understanding we should be tempering expectations and allowing for the possibility of the dreaded sophomore slump to hit Suzuki, I just don’t see that happening.
His maturity is a factor in that. But I also see it as an advantage that the 21-year-old is starting his second season after two extensive pauses in the action — especially after witnessing what he did following the first one.
Suzuki had the necessary time to recover, to add muscle and work on his game and his individual skills, and then he was promoted and depended on as the top centre in the bubble. And boy, did he ever leave off on a positive note, with four goals and seven points in 10 playoff games.
Think about what that will do for his confidence versus finishing off with just one assist in his final nine games prior to the March pause of the NHL season.
It can’t hurt.
Neither can Suzuki having better wingers on any given night.
Looking back on his first season, that was hardly the case — don’t forget he started on the wing of the fourth line.
Is a point per game out of the question? No.
Am I betting on Suzuki scoring 56 points in 56 games? Not necessarily.
But I don’t think he’ll be far off if he remains healthy. And with an increased role on the power play, I’m betting on him to lead the Canadiens in points.
3. Weber will finish top five in Norris voting
A rested and healthy Weber is a player that should be feared. And on a team with improved depth at all positions, he’s going to be more rested than he’s accustomed to in-season.
Also, since we’re looking at a 56-game schedule, one where you could see much more of a playoff dynamic — with the Canadian teams playing exclusively against each other and, perhaps, in more of a baseball series-style format — that plays into Weber’s hands. Not only because he’s made for the intensity of playoff-type hockey, but also because he’s been far more productive in the first half of the season than he has over the last half in recent years.
Weber had 12 goals and 31 points in his first 41 games last season. It’s not a stretch to think he can produce even more with better players around him and playing a minute or two less per night than the 24 minutes he averaged.
A boost in power play production would help a great deal — as noted in my first prediction, I think he’ll have a considerable one — and it’s also conceivable he’ll be much more effective in his own end.
Weber’s role isn’t going to change — he’s still going to be top dog at even strength, on the power play and on the penalty kill. So long as there are enough voters who appreciate that he’s an everything-defenceman and not just a high-flyer or offensive type, he’ll once again garner Norris consideration.
