When the Toronto Maple Leafs announced Wednesday that they had fired coach Craig Berube, Auston Matthews jumped to mind immediately.
Rumours persist that the Maple Leafs captain is undecided on his future in Toronto following the team’s worst finish in a decade. New general manager John Chayka told reporters Wednesday that Matthews’ reported uncertainty had “zero” influence on the organization’s decision to axe Berube.
“Auston’s an accomplished player (who) is world-class,” Chayka said. “I think he wants to align on the vision and the strategy ahead, as do we. I don’t think there’s any type of competing interests. I think it’s about getting on the same page.”
Chayka did not offer specifics on the qualities he is seeking in the Maple Leafs’ next coach, but one of that person’s top priorities will be helping Matthews rediscover the version of himself that scored a franchise-record 69 goals the season before Berube arrived.
Over two injury-riddled seasons under Berube, Matthews averaged 0.47 goals per game — a steep drop from the NHL-best 0.65 goals per game he averaged over his first eight years in the league.
There has been a lot of talk about Berube’s deployment of Matthews and its potential effects on the star centre’s offensive production. As Sportsnet’s Justin Bourne wrote this week, “Maybe the next coach won’t stuff Matthews in the defensive zone like he’s a shutdown centre alone.”
It is true that the difficulty of Matthews’ minutes at five-on-five increased after Berube replaced Sheldon Keefe ahead of the 2024-25 season. His average strength of opposition at five-on-five over the past two regular seasons ranked third out of 357 forwards who played at least 100 total games. The only forwards ahead of him were Minnesota’s Joel Eriksson Ek and Jason Dickinson, who split time between Chicago and Edmonton. By comparison, Matthews finished 140th in that category during the 2023-24 regular season out of 368 forwards who played at least 50 games.
Because of Matthews’ tougher assignments, it is unsurprising that his shooting metrics took a tumble, both in quality and quantity. He averaged nearly three fewer scoring chances per 60 minutes in all situations under Berube than he did in his final season under Keefe.
At the same time, it is fairly impressive that Matthews averaged nearly 40 goals per 82 games during Berube’s tenure despite handling unfavourable matchups. If Toronto’s next coach can free Matthews from some of his defensive responsibilities, a bounce-back season could be in the offing.
Chayka will also need to do a better job than predecessor Brad Treliving of surrounding Matthews with talented linemates. Max Domi was Matthews’ top winger this season with 467:26 of shared ice time at even strength, and Toronto generated only 44 per cent of the expected goals (xGF%).
Matthews and Matthew Knies, who played through a knee injury for most of the season, posted a 41.2 xGF% in 465:57 of ice time. Last season, the Maple Leafs had a 53.7 xGF% at even strength when Matthews and Knies were on the ice, predominantly with Mitch Marner. (Of course, presumptive No. 1 overall pick Gavin McKenna could be the answer.)
“We didn’t meet the goals or the expectations that we set out at the start,” Matthews told reporters last month. “Ultimately, that’s on me. That’s on us as players. We’re the ones (who) have to go out there and compete and play the game. We didn’t do that well enough this year.”
Matthews, who underwent knee surgery in March, told reporters after the Maple Leafs’ season ended that “it’s an incredible honour to wake up every day and wear this jersey.” But more ominously, Matthews also said that he “can’t predict the future.”
Sportsnet’s Nick Kypreos recently wrote that speculation about Matthews’ future “will continue to evolve … until the player's camp — or the team in a follow-up statement — puts the rumour to bed.” Chayka, at least outwardly, does not appear concerned.
“I know Auston is the captain and a prolific goal-scorer and there’s much attention on that for that reason,” Chayka told reporters. “I understand that. From my perspective, as I said in my (introductory) press conference, and it wasn’t just a line: I view the players as our partners.”
