On social media, Alex DeBrincat is “trending” without going anywhere.
He’s hot, even when he’s not.
Stuck in NHL RFA limbo, he remains the most talked-about player in Ottawa, despite the Senators going out and signing their No. 1 goaltender, Joonas Korpisalo on July 1.
How do you solve a problem like ‘The Cat?’
It’s possible that it can’t be solved at the moment. Always subject to change with a single phone call or sudden deal, a flat salary cap clearly has DeBrincat and agent Jeff Jackson longing for the summer of 2024 when DeBrincat can become an unrestricted free agent.
How to ‘bridge’ the gap until that time? And is it really possible after all that has transpired since the season ended that DeBrincat could be in the Senators lineup this fall?
It was fascinating to hear general manager Pierre Dorion drop that message when I asked him on Saturday for an update on DeBrincat, a 27-goal scorer whom the Senators tried to trade at last week’s NHL draft.
“He has indicated that he will not sign here long term,” Dorion said. “That doesn’t mean he won’t sign (here) short term. We like the player. If the player comes back for a year, nothing wrong with that.”
Now, Dorion’s comments have to be considered from all angles. Is he being realistic about The Cat coming back, or was it a not-so-subtle hint to DeBrincat’s camp that if he doesn't want to be here in Ottawa again they better help him find a deal elsewhere ASAP.
It could be both. Find your deal or we are very prepared to accommodate Alex for another season. In fact, we expect a huge increase in output from a 25-year-old who already has two 41-goal seasons on his resume, from his years with Chicago.
Further messaging from Dorion:
“Alex has been nothing but great here ... he practices hard, plays hard, likes to score goals. We'll have no problem if he comes back.”
Do you suppose that comment was music to DeBrincat’s ears or had him picking up the phone to Jackson – we gotta find a deal somewhere, man.
I don’t mind Dorion’s tactic in this scenario. Why shut the door on the player’s return to the Sens when to do so would only diminish the market for DeBrincat?
Remind teams that this is a good kid, a young father. He got along with his teammates. A gifted scorer who hit a bunch of goalposts. There is huge value in this skilled forward and to quote Dorion from the draft – “we’re not going to trade him for pennies on the dollar.”
To return to Dorion’s comment at Saturday’s media conference. “Short term” and “back for a year” are two different scenarios.
In fact, they are two of the three possible outcomes this off-season as far as DeBrincat is concerned.
1: DeBrincat stays in Ottawa on an arbitration deal
This once must have looked very attractive to DeBrincat. A great fallback position. Under the terms of DeBrincat’s contract and qualifying offer, he is scheduled to earn $9 million US because that was his actual salary in the final year of his expiring contract. On July 1, DeBrincat became a restricted free agent.
However, Dorion and the Senators took measures to try to reduce that QO, by pursuing club-elected arbitration. In effect, the team wants to trim that $9 million by 15 per cent, to have DeBrincat check in at a friendlier $7.65M for next season, if an arbitrator agrees.
That arbitration hearing would not happen until August. History would suggest this case won’t get that far. Nevertheless, until something breaks in this story, the possibility of an arb settlement and DeBrincat lining up for head coach D.J. Smith for one last season before free agency exists. The Senators would then be in a position of having to decide to move DeBrincat at the trade deadline or keep him for a potential playoff run, the first one since 2017.
2: A bridge deal
A contract for two or three years buys time for both sides. The Senators would get a little more bang for the buck out of a player whose acquisition via trade was widely celebrated a year ago. Ottawa buys an extra year or two of DeBrincat’s free agency and the player settles on a fair contract (though less than core forwards like Brady Tkachuk’s $8.2M and Tim Stützle’s $8.35M) and can still spring onto the market at age 27 or 28 and hit a home run in free agency.
Again, a bridge contract is not something anyone could have imagined as recently as a week ago. But all in all, it holds some merit.
3: A trade
This still seems the most likely scenario. The Senators deal DeBrincat to a team with assets to help the Sens now, while the DeBrincat camp finds a contract they can live with. Maybe it’s not the long-term deal they envisioned a short time ago, when they thought the Detroit Red Wings would fall all over themselves to sign the Michigan native. (Steve Yzerman is not the kind of GM to go ga-ga over a player he thinks is over-valuing himself).
Maybe DeBrincat has to settle for less term and money, short term, and bet on himself to earn a bigger payday down the road.
After all, if DeBrincat doesn’t believe in himself, why should anyone?
One player, three options. The Senators have laid the groundwork for fans and media to be prepared for anything where DeBrincat is concerned – including the once unimaginable idea that the young winger returns to Ottawa and scores his way to future riches.
