Hope for the best, plan for the worst. Or, at the very least, mentally prepare for both.
Whether you’re talking about a big life event or simply the start of a new NHL season, it’s best to understand there are always a couple ways things can go.
Examining best- and worst-case scenarios around the league always involves some wide variance, but things are especially wild in the Atlantic Division — the NHL’s clear Group of Death — because there are multiple teams you could see doing anything from — maybe, just maybe — winning the Stanley Cup to, thanks to their ultra-competitive division, missing the playoffs.
So get a good grip on something solid and we’ll all try to avoid whiplash while exploring both the sunny and dark ends of the spectrum for each Atlantic squad.
Key additions JJ Peterka, W; Will Borgen, D; Connor Clifton, D
Key subtractions Viktor Arvidsson, W; Joonas Korpisalo, G
Cap space today $5,390,417
Best case A second straight playoff appearance
Worst case Finishing just outside the playoffs and getting a boring, mid-first round selection
The Bruins surprised some by grabbing the first wild card last season during the squad’s first season under coach Marco Sturm. Aside from a slide to the bottom in 2025, the B’s have shown time and time again — even with major roster turnover — their infrastructure is tough to bet against. It’s hard to just place them back in the playoffs, but major pillars are in place with goalie Jeremy Swayman, stud defenceman Charlie McAvoy and superstar winger David Pastrnak. Throw in new toy JJ Peterka, and it’s easy to see how Boston will once again be very competitive.
Still, Viktor Arvidsson scored 25 goals for this team last year, and he’s now a Detroit Red Wing. Peterka has to net at least that many to fill the void.
If you’re a B’s fan, the nightmare isn’t necessarily missing the post-season, but doing so only by a point or two and drafting in the mushy middle. This remains a system that could use a talent injection, so if the Bruins aren't up to the task this year, better to fall flat, hope for some lottery luck and come back with a new weapon in the pipeline.
Key additions Louis Crevier, D; Olen Zellweger, D
Key subtractions Alex Tuch, W; Bowen Bryam, D; Jordan Greenway, W
Cap space today $5,123,652
Best case Make the Cup final for the first time in nearly 30 years
Worst case A reminder that sporting Gods seem to have it in for Buffalo
The Sabres made the playoffs for the first time since 2011 last spring and were one Game 7 overtime goal away from an appearance in the Eastern Conference Final. To call 2025-26 a cathartic season for long-suffering Western New Yorkers would be an understatement.
So where do we go from here?
While the rise was a long time coming, there is nothing fluky about what Buffalo did last season. The Sabres — even with the departure of winger Alex Tuch and top-4 defenceman Bowen Byram — have good pieces all over the board and may yet make a notable upgrade in goal if they can pull off a trade for Connor Hellebuyck.
It’s absolutely conceivable this team could win three playoff rounds and make the final. That will be especially true if Josh Norris can finally stay healthy and be a 30-goal guy, while the likes of youngsters Zach Benson, Konsta Helenius and Jiri Kulich take steps on their career path.
Still, no fanbase in the league is more painfully aware of how fast hope can dissipate than Sabres supporters. It’s tough to imagine eight Eastern Conference teams finishing ahead of Buffalo this season, but if they don’t make a crease upgrade, perhaps the Sabres will be first-round fodder — and that’s already stopped being a decent outcome for this organization.
Key additions Viktor Arvidsson, W; Daniil Tarasov, G; Keegan Kolesar, W
Key subtractions Parick Kane, W
Cap space today $19,572,084
Best case A homerun trade involving captain Dylan Larkin and soft reset
Worst case Being the worst team in a strong division by some margin
Training camp may be right around the corner, but there are still so many questions in Detroit. The Wings still have not named a successor to former GM Steve Yzerman and it’s unclear if the new person has a chance to save the marriage with captain Dylan Larkin, who requested a trade following last season.
You can argue best-case for the Wings is actually Larkin returning to the fold and carrying on as a squad with some strong pieces that can challenge for a playoff spot. That said, similar iterations of this squad have not been good enough to crack the top eight in recent years and you wonder if the best move would be seeking out a strong return of young prospects on the verge of NHL duty who can join the likes of Moritz Seider and Lucas Raymond in trying to push the Red Wings further in future seasons.
They may have already topped out in the Larkin Era.
If you had to lay a nickel on who will finish last in the Atlantic right now, Detroit is probably the bet. Worst-case scenario is also reasonable-case scenario.
Really, though, the only thing that would make a last-place finish a true nightmare is more of the bad lottery luck Detroit experienced during Yzerman’s tenure.
Key additions Brady Tkachuk, W; Jacob Markstrom, G; Radko Gudas, D; Garnet Hathaway, W; Akira Schmid, G; Lars Eller, C
Key subtractions Sergei Bobrovsky, G; Evan Rodrigues, W; Mackie Samoskevich, W; A.J. Greer, W; Daniil Tarasov, G
Cap space today $34,286
Best case A fourth trip to the Stanley Cup Final in five seasons
Worst case Big-time Bobrovsky regrets
After missing the playoffs in an injury-ravaged season, the Panthers are poised for an instant return to contender status.
Heck, they might even be the Cup favourites.
The lineup in front of the crease is bulletproof and constructed in a lab to succeed in the post-season. Add Brady Tkachuk to a group of guys who, though not by choice, had a long off-season to rest and recover after playing in three straight finals and you have a recipe for more South Florida success.
The rub, of course, is that goalie Sergei Bobrovsky was allowed to leave as a UFA and 36-year-old Jacob Markstrom was acquired to take his place. Markstrom — a second-round pick of the Cats in 2008 — has had a solid career, but a total of just 31 playoff games on his resume, none of which occurred beyond the second round. That’s not to say Markstrom can’t deliver for this club, it’s just that there’s no proof of him doing it yet the way there was with Bobrovsky.
Until Markstrom shows he can’t do the job, Florida will be a favourite. But the nightmare is subpar goaltending derailing what is otherwise a championship-calibre roster.
Key additions None
Key subtractions Brendan Gallagher, W; Joe Veleno, C
Cap space today $9,783,924
Best case Another final-four appearance
Worst case The first feeling of a setback within a spectacular rebuild
We can hear Habs fans screaming that best-case scenario is taking another step forward, which would be a berth in the Cup final. It’s worth remembering what a monumental achievement it was for this team to win a pair of excruciatingly close Game 7s and advancing to the Eastern Conference Final. Really, if Montreal could match that showing in 2027, it would say fantastic things about this still-young club.
The Canadiens entered the summer targeting a top-six upgrade and, as yet, a significant move has not materialized. For now, it’s on sophomore Ivan Demidov to improve on a fantastic rookie showing, while the likes of Alex Newhook (seven goals in 19 playoff games) Oliver Kapanen (22 goals as an NHL freshman last year) and perhaps even RFA Zach Bolduc will try to lessen the need for second-line help.
The known-entities in Montreal — a great top line, a strong defence corps led by third-year whiz Lane Hutson, a trio of options in goal with Jakub Dobes, Sam Montembeault and Jacob Fowler — should be enough to deliver a playoff spot for the Habs. Still, success has come faster than anticipated in Montreal, and even if they fall back a little from last year’s 106 points, you could be talking about a team that enters the final stages of the season in a life-and-death battle for the playoffs.
Key additions William Eklund, W; Andre Burakovsky, W; Samuel Ersson, G
Key subtractions Brady Tkachuk, W; Lars Eller, C
Cap space today $4,195,833
Best case A Tkachuk-sized weight is removed and the team soars
Worst case The lacklustre goaltending from most of last season returns
There’s certainly something counterintuitive about the idea that you could lose your team captain — a guy with a unique skill set in the prime of his career — and be better off. Parting ways with a player like Brady Tkachuk, on its face, is an unconditionally bad thing.
Still, there’s no denying the questions over Tkachuk’s future in Ottawa had become a massive distraction for the team and, if anything, those probes were only going to become more intense. Now, the book is closed, and everyone can move on.
The most tangible factor in figuring out if Ottawa is better off will be the play of William Eklund. The winger was acquired from San Jose with the ninth-overall selection returned in the Tkachuk deal and he needs to prove worthy of a top-six spot with the Sens. Eklund, who turns 24 in October, will get a prime opportunity to show his offensive chops in Ottawa and if he can thrive in his new role, the Senators can make a third consecutive post-season appearance.
In fact, Ottawa may even be able to make some noise in the playoffs if Linus Ullmark performs to his standard for the entire year. Goaltending was a huge sore spot for most of the season last year, with Ottawa entering the Olympic break in February sporting the second-worst five-on-five save percentage in the league.
Ullmark pulled it together down the stretch, but if he gets off to another slow start it would be disastrous for the Sens.
Key additions John Carlson, D; Dennis Hildeby, G
Key subtractions Darren Raddysh, D; Nick Paul, W; Corey Perry, W
Cap space today $3,228,334
Best case A triumph for the Old Heads
Worst case A feeling that the end is here
Before we start talking about the Bolts as a full “one last job” crew, it’s worth remembering the core of the club isn’t that old yet.
Nikita Kucherov, Andrei Vasilevskiy, Jake Guentzel, Brayden Point and Anthony Cirelli are all somewhere between 33 (Kucherov) and 29 (Cirelli). That said, the defence skews old with Victor Hedman (36), Ryan McDonagh (37) and newcomer John Carlson (37) all deep on the back nine of their careers.
This team has not been past the first round since making the 2022 Stanley Cup Final and the sense of urgency for this decorated crew is only rising. If Tampa is going to win one more title — which remains in play — we’re approaching now-or-never territory.
Certainly Carlson will be counted on to immediately integrate with the Tampa offence. The longtime Washington Capital is coming in on a two-year deal, ostensibly replacing fellow right-shot, offence-first blue-liner Darren Raddysh after the former posted a breakout 70-point season last year. Carlson’s biggest responsibility will be trying to make PP1 work as the lone defenceman on that unit.
Tampa’s experience the past couple playoffs is a perfect microcosm for why it’s so tough to emerge from the Atlantic. In 2024 and ’25, the Bolts lost to an established powerhouse in the Panthers. Last spring, Tampa was bumped out in seven games by the Montreal Canadiens, one of the up-and-coming clubs in the division.
The lay of the land is such that the Lightning could once again have a strong regular season and simply come up short in a first-round series against a very good club. If that happens, Tampa’s roster will be that much older and confronting the fact that Kucherov can become a UFA in 2027, with Vasilevskiy eligible to hit the open market one summer later in ’28.
Tick, tick, tick…
Key additions Sergei Bobrovsky, G; Darren Raddysh, D; Gavin McKenna, W; Nick Paul, W; Emil Andrae, D; Jack Roslovic, W; Colton Sissons, C; Teddy Blueger, C; Brandon Duhaime, W
Key subtractions Joseph Woll, G; Brandon Carlo, D; Nick Robertson, W; Simon Benoit, D; Mattias Maccelli, W; Dennis Hildeby, G
Cap space today -$2,752,382
Best case A return to playoff hockey with a new crew less haunted by past failures
Worst case Having crazy-good lottery luck again, but on behalf of another team
Few teams in the entire league — never mind just the Atlantic — scream “range of outcomes” like the Leafs. The boring truth, though, is that if the reunited tandem of Sergei Bobrovsky and Anthony Stolarz is solid, Toronto should be pushing hard for a playoff spot. Bob and Tony were fantastic the one season they shared a crease in Florida, as the Cats posted the second-best team save percentage in the league in 2023-24. Of course, Bobrovsky — a first-year Leaf — is about to turn 38 in a couple weeks and Stolarz has had a devil of a time staying healthy during his two seasons in Toronto.
Another must-have for best-case scenario is a return to form for Auston Matthews. The captain has not played more than 67 games in either of the past two campaigns and the Buds need him healthy and challenging for the Rocket Richard Trophy again.
With a rebuilt bottom six, a new power play bomber in Darren Raddysh and a sense things can’t possibly go as poorly as they did last year — to say nothing of first-overall talent Gavin McKenna joining the team — there’s legit reason for hope in Toronto.
That said, all these new pieces could take a while to fit into place and there’s certainly not much margin for error trying to make the post-season out of the Atlantic. It’s hard to imagine the Leafs finishing second-last in the East again, but if they do falter, it’s worth remembering Toronto does not hold its own first-round pick in 2027 or ’28.
