Buyer beware: Jordan Binnington's play may not match big-game reputation

Something about Jordan Binnington is hard to comprehend.

Whenever the lights are the brightest, he transforms into the unflappable “Big-Game Binnington.” As Team Canada teammate Brandon Hagel told reporters at the Winter Olympics last month, “when big games come around, Jordan Binnington comes around.”

But when those lights are dimmer, Binnington seems to lose his superpowers.

Case in point: the St. Louis Blues are languishing near the bottom of the Western Conference standings, and Binnington has performed like the worst starting goaltender in the NHL this season.

Although defenceman Colton Parayko nixed a potential trade to the Buffalo Sabres on Thursday, St. Louis could still set off fireworks before Friday’s trade deadline. Robert Thomas, Jordan Kyrou, Justin Faulk and Brayden Schenn are all candidates to be shipped out of town by outgoing general manager Doug Armstrong.

“It’s an uneasy time for everyone, especially the position that we put ourselves in,” Schenn told reporters this week. “At the end of the day, it’s part of the business. No one likes going through it, but we know what we sign up for.”

Binnington, whose contract ($6 million cap hit through 2027) includes a 14-team no-trade list, could be on his way out of St. Louis, too. But will his problems disappear if he lands on a better team? It is not that simple.

Over 33 games this season, Binnington has allowed 14 goals above expected (0.46 per 60 minutes) — by far the most among the top 64 goaltenders in time on ice. The next closest goaltender is Ottawa’s Leevi Meriläinen, with 9.9 goals allowed above expected. Binnington has saved more goals than expected in just 11 of his 31 starts, which translates to a quality-start rate of 35.5 per cent.

It would be easy to assume that the Blues are a mess defensively based on the standings, but that is not the case. St. Louis ranks 10th in expected goals against (XGA) per 60 minutes. Binnington has faced 5.8 Grade A shot opportunities per 60 minutes, ninth fewest among qualified goaltenders.

The hiring of coach Jim Montgomery in November 2024 helped turn the Blues into one of the league’s top defensive teams. They ranked third in XGA per 60 minutes during Montgomery’s 60 regular-season games behind the bench.

St. Louis surrendered 2.6 XGA per 60 minutes under Montgomery last season when Binnington was in net — the same number as this season. But despite those favourable conditions, Binnington’s play has dropped off sharply. His slot save percentage, which was .846 in the regular season after the coaching change last season, is now at .786.

Although Binnington’s heroics in the 4 Nations Face-Off last year linger in the minds of many observers, his playoff performance has tailed off since his breakout moment in 2019. As an unheralded rookie, Binnington recorded 16 quality starts in 26 tries (61.5 per cent), including five steals, as he backstopped the Blues to the Stanley Cup after their miraculous mid-season turnaround.

Since then, however, Binnington has a quality-start rate of 45.5 per cent (10/22) in the playoffs with zero steals, which occur when a goaltender’s GSAE is greater than the final score differential. He made just three quality starts during the Blues’ seven-game loss to the Winnipeg Jets in the first round last year.

Overall, Binnington’s 54.2 quality-start percentage ranks 11th out of 22 goaltenders who have started at least 20 playoff games since 2019.

Multiple teams in playoff contention could be in the market for a goaltender.

Sportsnet’s Nick Kypreos reported that there is “an outside chance” the Montreal Canadiens, who are 25th in total goals saved above expected, go after Binnington. The Vegas Golden Knights are 31st in that same category despite leading the Pacific Division. Brandon Bussi (23.6 GSAE) has been a great success story for the Carolina Hurricanes, but they could opt to bring in a goaltender with significantly more experience.

As other teams contemplate trading for Binnington, they need to be careful about being blinded by his reputation.