BROSSARD, Que.— If you’d have told the Montreal Canadiens in September that they’d go 11-7-3 and post the 10th-best points percentage (.595) in the NHL through the first 21 games of this season, they’d have taken it.
It’s a marked improvement over what the Canadiens did through their first 21 games last season, even if where they find themselves on Nov. 24 in the same place they were towards the end of last November—outside of a playoff spot.
Still, back then, the Canadiens were 7-11-3, six points out of an Eastern Conference wild card position and 11 points back of the Atlantic Division-leading Toronto Maple Leafs, and right now, despite a recent skid that saw them lose seven of eight games and five in a row, they’re just two points out of second in the conference and first in their division.
There’s been a lot of good, with most of it propelling the Canadiens to a 9-3-0 start.
But some bad mixed in leading to a 2-4-3 record to close the quarter served up an important lesson, coach Martin St. Louis hopes his group will absorb quickly—ahead of the schedule condensing considerably between now and the end of the first half.
“We’ve just got to earn it every day,” said St. Louis after Monday’s practice, before departing for Utah to play the Mammoth for what will kickstart a stretch of 16 games in 28 days that features five sets of back-to-backs in the lead up to the brief Christmas Holiday break.
“It’s a hard league,” St. Louis continued. “Don’t take anything for granted. We know what works. I would say don’t take anything for granted, just get after it.”
Most encouraging development: The offence
The Canadiens have waited many years to have as many weapons dispersed throughout their lineup as they currently do, and it’s no coincidence they’ve produced as much as they have.
They rank fourth in goals per game (3.43), seventh in five-on-five goals per game (2.83), and 14th on the power play (21 per cent) despite a recent 0-for-17 run.
Up front, Nick Suzuki’s on pace to at least the career high he set last season of 89 points, while Cole Caufield is poised to shatter his previous highs in goals (37) and points (70).
The Wisconsinite has 13 goals and is on pace for 50, and his 22 points put him on pace for 86 over 82 games.
Caufield and Suzuki didn’t carry the offence alone through the first quarter.
Alex Newhook had six goals and 12 points through 17 games before getting hurt, counting as one of a few forwards who have spread out Montreal’s scoring.
Juraj Slafkovsky is another, with six goals and 10 points, while Josh Anderson and Kirby Dach each found the net five times.
Then you have Ivan Demidov and Oliver Kapanen. The former leads all rookies with 17 points, and the latter is tied for first in goals (7).
From the backend, sophomore Lane Hutson has scored 18 of the 61 points Canadiens defencemen have collected thus far. Only the blueliners of the first-place Colorado Avalanche have combined for more (64).
Most concerning development: The goaltending
Samuel Montembeault ranks 73rd out of 75 goaltenders to have played in at least one game this season in goals saved above expected.
That’s a belly flop off the high-diving board into the abyss for a goaltender who ranked fifth in the category among 103 goaltenders to appear in a game last season.
It has temporarily cost Montembeault more than pain. It’s cost him his net.
For how long, no one knows, because Jakub Dobes, who started off the season with six consecutive wins, hasn’t been able to inspire much more confidence of late.
The 24-year-old has gone 1-2-2, allowing 18 of the last 115 shots he’s faced to beat him.
That’s an .843 save percentage, which is far off the .922 Dobes posted through the first six games.
Montembeault is at .852 in 12 appearances. His four wins and a point in extra time are almost exclusively thanks to the Canadiens’ offence.
They won’t win at the same clip through the second quarter without at least one of their goaltenders stepping up.
Neither of them must be spectacular. They just have to be average.
If Montembeault and Dobes can’t be at least that through the start of this second quarter, the chances either of them will be guarding Montreal’s net by the end of it will diminish considerably.
Top-six forwards: B-minus
Suzuki and Caufield carry the grade, with Demidov and Kapanen supporting them.
Newhook remaining healthy would’ve eliminated the minus next to the B, and a little more production from Slafkovsky would’ve turned it into a plus.
Bottom-six forwards: D
The grade is as low as it is due to the dearth of production from this group.
We figured it might be lower with Christian Dvorak and Joel Armia becoming free agents and Emil Heineman getting traded, but it shouldn’t have been as low as it was through the first quarter of the season.
Zachary Bolduc scored goals in each of his first three games as a Canadien but has just one since.
Perhaps that’ll change now that he’s three games into playing with Caufield and Suzuki.
Not that it’ll help the bottom-six.
Brendan Gallagher and Joe Veleno scoring more than the two goals between them will, as will Anderson, adding to his total.
After scoring 13 last season, Jake Evans only has three so far, but at least he’s done a remarkable job in the most defensive role of any forward on the team.
In general, the bottom-six—even with callups Jared Davidson, Joshua Roy, Owen Beck and Florian Xhekaj featured in it—has been decent defensively.
We’ll see if they improve in that department while providing more scoring now that Alexandre Texier is in the mix.
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Defence: B-minus
They’re producing a ton, but they have to give up much less.
Mike Matheson and Noah Dobson have been fantastic at both ends. Hutson has been great offensively and not bad defensively.
Reverse that quotient for Alex Carrier.
As for Jayden Struble, he’s shown flashes of greatness and lapses in concentration—too often from shift-to-shift, never mind from game-to-game.
And yet Struble has still been more consistent than Arber Xhekaj, who has understandably struggled more than he’s succeeded in a role that sees him used so sporadically within a game.
One of Struble or Xhekaj stepping up could help the grade.
Adam Engstrom is now with the team and threating to unseat whichever one of them doesn’t.
Perhaps the competition brings the best out of all three of Engstrom, Xhekaj and Struble.
They should be treating it as the fiercest one they’ve faced at this level while Kaiden Guhle heals up from surgery. Because when Guhle returns between the first and 14th of January, he’ll be taking someone’s spot.
Goaltending: D-minus
The only thing keeping it from being an F is Dobes’ performance at the start.
Quarter Mark Awards
MVP: Suzuki
Most Improved Player: Kapanen
Best Defensive Player: Matheson
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