Cap Comparable: Marner remains among elite after new deal with Golden Knights

The Mitch Marner free agency saga has reached its conclusion.

Marner is off to Sin City after agreeing to an eight-year, $96-million deal with the Vegas Golden Knights that averages out to $12 million per season.

For Toronto, getting Nicolas Roy in return for Marner at least allows the team to recoup something in return, but it certainly doesn't replace losing a player coming off a 102-point season.

This wasn't due to a lack of trying on the Leafs' end as the front office attempted to negotiate with Marner, but talks never materialized, and it became evident that a breakup was coming.

Although the Leafs would have liked to walk away with more than Roy for Marner, Toronto was handcuffed by the full no-movement clause the 27-year-old had, which provided him with all the power in how things went down.

It also allowed Marner to secure what appeared to be his preferred destination and gave Vegas a chance to clear the cap space needed to fit him. This obviously was followed by the news that Alex Pietrangelo will be taking a step back from hockey because of a significant injury.

Now, did Marner potentially leave money on the table to join the Golden Knights? You can certainly make a case that teams would have been desperate to make a significant offer to Marner if he made it to the open market, given the options currently out there.

However, the Markham, Ont., native gets to go to a team that won a Stanley Cup a few seasons ago and remains one of the top teams in the Western Conference. Tough to argue with that path over the uncertainty of what free agency had to offer.

Before we go and compare Marner's deal, it's important to understand two factors that likely impacted negotiations.

Cap percentages and destination

With this rise in the cap, we are starting to see players set new highs in AAV, but what most teams look at is the percentage that each contract takes up on the salary cap.

Marner could have taken his chances on the open market and seen if he could land a raise similar to what Artemi Panarin signed with the New York Rangers back in 2019. Going into the final year of his deal, Panarin's cap percentage now sits at 12.19 per cent.

So if Marner went out to the open market and used the 14.29 per cent of the cap that Panarin signed for as a starting point in negotiations, that would put the deal's value at a $13.65 million AAV. Over a maximum seven-year term, that total would have been $95.55 million (just under the $96 million Vegas will pay him).

Marner's new deal will count at 12.6 per cent of the cap going into next season, and with the cap continuing to rise, it could look more favourable for Vegas moving forward.

Of course, some will make sure to point out the benefit Marner will receive playing with a no-state tax team in Vegas. However, this was a player that is coming off a significant contract and had his fair share of endorsement deals as a star player in Toronto.

How does Marner's new deal stack up to recent contracts signed?

Patrick Kane helped raise the bar on what wingers could get paid after becoming the first to secure a deal over $10-plus million a season.

Even then, not all wingers are seen as worthy of that type of offer, considering the priority placed on franchise centres to secure their payday. However, there is a tier of wingers who have made the case to be paid their value, and Marner joined that club on his second contract with the Leafs.

With his third deal, there was a case for him to make more, but how much more was always a constant debate, so here is a closer look at other contracts that provide decent insight into what Marner got.

Miko Rantanen, Dallas Stars

Contract: Eight years, $96 million ($12 million AAV)

Percentage of the cap: 12.6 per cent

Marner and Rantanen have seemingly been linked in more ways than one over the years.

When Marner signed his six-year, $65.4-million deal back in 2019, Rantanen would go on to get a six-year, $55.5-million pact just a few weeks later.

Fast forward to this year, and the rumoured blockbuster involving both players that never materialized because Marner was unwilling to waive his no-movement clause, preferring to stay in Toronto.

Rantanen later signed with Dallas on a deal that made him the highest-paid winger in the league. Now, just months later, Marner signs an identical deal — and is shipped to Vegas.

In many ways, Rantanen and Marner are comparable players based on regular-season production. Marner, however, has the edge defensively as a Selke Trophy nominee.

Where the comparison ends is in post-season production. Rantanen scored nine goals and 22 points in 18 games this spring, while Marner had two goals and 13 points for the Leafs — including five points in seven games against Florida.

Here is how both players compare in production in the playoffs.

You can certainly say that this likely won't be the last time these two players will be compared to each other based on the deals they signed. There also may be a chance they go head-to-head in the post-season now that Marner is heading over to the Western Conference.

William Nylander, Toronto Maple Leafs

Contract: Eight years, $92 million ($11.5 million AAV)

Percentage of the cap: 13.07 per cent

The moment the Leafs locked up Nylander to his long-term deal back in January 2024, attention quickly turned to what it meant for Marner's future deal

Some figured Marner would get more, others thought they’d come in at similar numbers — and in the end, Marner’s deal is $500,000 more per year, or $4 million more in total.

It’s tough to compare the two directly. Nylander is known more as a goal scorer, while Marner plays a two-way game and logs minutes on the penalty kill.

Marner (.90 P/GP) sits just ahead of Nylander (0.87 P/GP) in points-per-game in the playoffs, but his teammate has double the goals scored with 26 to his 13 in three fewer games played.

While Nylander received a higher cap percentage at the time of signing, that figure has now dropped to 12.04 per cent. He leveraged himself into a strong deal that becomes more team-friendly as the cap increases.

Artemi Panarin, New York Rangers

Contract: Seven years, $81.5 million ($11.642 million AAV)

Percentage of the cap: 14.29 per cent

When Panarin signed his deal back in 2019, he accounted for 14.29 per cent of the Rangers' cap, which remains the top mark among wingers who signed in free agency.

Of course, he was able to command that figure as a free agent, and that likely would've been the only way he could have surpassed that figure. Instead, Marner settled for the eighth year he got by doing the sign-and-trade route with Toronto and Vegas.

Marner’s production in his contract year arguably justified him earning more than Panarin. The Russian forward had 28 goals and 87 points in 79 games in 2019 while Marner had 27 goals and 102 points.

One thing to remember, though, Aaron Portzline of The Athletic reported at the time that the Columbus Blue Jackets offered Panarin an eight-year, $96-million contract to stay — look familiar?

Instead, Panarin declined, opting instead to join the Rangers for slightly less money.

So at a glance, Marner now joins Rantanen atop the NHL pay scale for wingers. But there’s an argument to be made that he could have commanded even more had he tested the open market.