Early Maple Leafs Observations: Whose stock is rising, falling?

If you had told fans of the Toronto Maple Leafs their team would be 1-1 after opening the season with games on back-to-back nights against the Montreal Canadiens and New Jersey Devils, they probably would have said “yeah that checks out.” Not sure they would’ve guessed which game they were going to win and lose, though.

But the team has now played 120 minutes of real, competitive hockey, and so we have our first insights into how the Craig Berube-era Maple Leafs will look. We’ve seen how they intend to roll out the lines, the special teams, and systems. Let’s cut the preamble and get to those initial observations, of which there’s been more good than bad.

Not reinventing the wheel with deployment

So far it seems like Berube, Marc Savard, Lane Lambert and Mike Van Ryn looked at last year’s Leafs and went “Yeah… that makes sense.”

Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner are paired together, John Tavares and William Nylander too, and their first power play unit is the same.

The minor changes to my eye are that the second power play unit may be more relevant because they’ve played about 40 per cent of the total PP ice time so far, as opposed to just a tiny fraction they got under Keefe. It seems like Matthews may kill penalties (which will need some practice), and they want to dump and hit a bit more, but otherwise they’re mostly starting where they left off.

I’ll remind folks, “where they left off” was a 102-point team that suffered injuries to Matthews, Nylander, Bobby McMann, and Joseph Woll before losing Round 1 of the playoffs by a goal in overtime, so it’s not the worst place to set off from. They’ll have to change things by the time they get back to the playoffs, but starting from a place of comfort and tweaking isn’t the worst thing.

The Leafs D has a chance to be really good

The Leafs already have two D-pairs I like more than any they’ve had post-Jake Muzzin. Chris Tanev and Morgan Rielly led Toronto in expected goals percentage in Game 2 and are going to be an excellent pair. Jake McCabe has taken a massive step since he joined the Leafs into becoming a mean but (mostly) controlled defender who can skate and has offensive upside (he scored eight times last season, and could surpass that this year). Pairing him with Oliver Ekman-Larsson has returned excellent early results, as they can break the puck out, and both have been offensively involved.

Simon Benoit and Conor Timmins could be a very good third pair, too. The aggressive Benoit has been found money for the Leafs, and Timmins' issues have always been health-related. When on the ice he gets points (he made a nice play on the McMann goal), skates well, and actually defends with some competitiveness. If he could stay on the rink this season, the Leafs' six blueliners would be as good as they've been in years.

Through two games, they’ve allowed one goal at even strength, after a year where they were below league average defensively.

The bottom-six forwards look good too

Through two games, Toronto's best line (compared to expectations) has been their fourth line, largely on the back of Steven Lorentz, who is on the fast track to fan favourite status. In game one Lorentz had an expected goals-for percentage of 99 per cent (is that good?) at five-on-five, and the next night all the Leafs' bottom six forwards were their best players in the same category. He’s been everywhere, stealing pucks and pushing the play in the right direction.

THIS has been what I’ve been yelling about for a bottom six for the Leafs. Not older players who’ve changed their roles, not younger offensive guys who can’t crack the top-six yet, just big ol’ 25-to-30-year-old hungry players who will willingly forecheck and play a role. It’s unlikely McMann will stay that far down the line-up, but if Toronto adds at the deadline and their fourth line is Lorentz-Kampf-McMann it's an immediate advantage, not a liability.

Max Pacioretty has exceeded expectations thus far, and while I’m not sure how it looks long-term (that depends on what Nick Robertson is at this point), the third line has been fine too.

Add Calle Jarnkrok and Connor Dewar to the mix, and the Leafs have real depth options (even Ryan Reaves was good in his first outing).

One more piece of positivity before some real questions…

Woll may be hurt, but great start for Stolarz and the Hildebeest

I said enough about Joseph Woll’s injury on Real Kyper and Bourne earlier this week, so let’s focus on the other two monsters who actually played in the first two games. Anthony Stolarz carried his great play from camp into the regular season, looking calm and collected in only allowing one goal against the Habs. Dennis Hildeby was great too, keeping the high-flying Devils to just two goals.

In all, there’s some comfort that behind Woll -- if he is going to be only intermittently available -- the Leafs have at least two guys who can hold the fort. And it’s not entirely clear whether or not Woll would even be able to hold it as well as Stolarz has shown he can.

Nothing from the top-six

No points for Matthews, Marner, or Nylander through two games. Tavares had a throwback to his prime, a rare even strength highlight from the Leafs veteran scorer, but the others have been snakebitten.

I’ve thought Matthews has looked good but has been unlucky. He led the NHL in posts and crossbars hit last season with 20, and has already dinged a few in his first two games. That line with Marner and Matthew Knies has created a lot, but it’s reasonable to expect more than “they’re getting some chances” when you load up your best at every position.

The conclusion for me is that Knies looks great – big, strong, fast, and all the rest – but I’m just not sure he fits in that spot. More than anything, I think he can help drive a lower line to some offensive success, rather than being more deferential to great players on the top line. (I am once again asking the team to try Max Domi with Matthews and Marner, because he can think the game offensively like those guys, and they are defensively attentive enough to protect him).

Whose stock has risen thus far?

There are about six guys who’ve been better than most expected them to be at the outset of camp:

Steven Lorentz

Max Pacioretty

Oliver Ekman-Larsson

Anthony Stolarz

Dennis Hildeby

Conor Timmins

Now, when guys like that get more opportunities, others will get less, that’s just science. Or math. Whatever. So...

Whose stock is holding, or dropping?

McMann has one scratch and one game on the fourth line, though he played well in that showing. We’ll see if his stock starts to rise.

Robertson was given two games after a great camp, but it hasn’t been there for him yet. Will he start to fall out of favour?

Timothy Liljegren is in trade rumours. He had a bad camp, but a trade seems a little premature, as there will be injuries, and trading someone just to trade them never makes your team better.

And finally, Woll. This guy came into the year as a question mark, and it remains to be seen if he’s willing to play through any discomfort, or if he’s going to be just too hurt to be reliable. Hopefully he answers that question emphatically with a healthy, quality season.